Tag: Smoke

Settled but Smokey Weather Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

A broad area of high pressure moving through the northern Prairies will bring seasonal conditions to the Winnipeg area this weekend. Unfortunately, northerly winds will also bring several plumes of wildfire smoke through the region over the coming days.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday August 17, 2024
This weekend will bring light winds and seasonal temperatures to much of the southern Prairies.

The Winnipeg area will get a chance to dry out after yesterday’s soaking as the slow-moving system responsible for it trundles towards the Great Lakes. Behind it, a ridge of high pressure will build in from the north as an area of high pressure moves into northern Manitoba this weekend.

This pattern change will bring partly cloudy to mixed skies to the area over the next few days with daytime highs in the mid-20s and overnight lows in the mid- to upper-teens. Winds will stay northerly over the next few days, up to around 30 km/h today then easing to 20 km/h or less for the weekend.

There is a low chance of a brief rain shower this afternoon due to lingering instability, then it will stay dry through the weekend.

The bigger issue in the days ahead will be plumes of wildfire smoke that descend through the region in the northerly winds.

CAMS PM2.5 forecast valid 17Z Friday August 16, 2024
The CAMS air quality model shows a broad plume of elevated PM2.5 values from wildfire smoke through much of Saskatchewan and western Manitoba today.

Today, dense plumes of smoke will move through portions of western Manitoba and Saskatchewan, sourced from wildfires over west-central Manitoba and northern Saskatchewan. Additionally, a secondary plume from wildfires in the Island Lake region in northeast Manitoba will drift southwest across the southern Interlake into the southwest corner of the province.

For Winnipeg, smoke models are trending towards keeping the smoke west and north of the city, but there is a chance that the city is caught by the edge of the plume this afternoon. If that happens, AQHI values will likely climb into the 6 to 8 range for the afternoon with improvement on Friday evening across the Red River Valley and western Manitoba.

CAMS PM2.5 forecast valid 23Z Saturday August 17, 2024
On Saturday, a potentially dense plume of wildfire smoke will drift towards the Red River Valley from the fires near Island Lake in NE Manitoba.

Heading into Saturday, a dense plume of smoke is forecast to drift from the Island Lake fires southwest into the Red River Valley. Unfortunately, if this happens the plume will end up stalling out under the ridge of high pressure over the Red River. This plume is forecast to arrive by Saturday afternoon and persist through midday Sunday before clearing. AQHI values with this plume could be as high as 10+.

AQHI values of 4 to 7 suggest that people with sensitivities to air quality should consider reducing their exposure. When values reach 7 to 10, all should consider reducing their exposure. AQHI values of 10 or higher are unhealthy and everybody should minimize their exposure.

Long Range Outlook

The ridge of high pressure will shift to the east on Monday, bringing southerly winds back to the region. Temperatures will climb back into the upper-20s with mainly sunny skies. The southerly winds will push wildfire smoke back northwards, bringing cleaner air to the southern Prairies and worse air quality to the northern Prairies.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Warm Summer Weather Ahead, But Smokier Conditions This Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see warm summer temperatures over the next few days with plenty of sunshine for the weekend, but wildfire smoke will make a reappearance.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday July 22, 2023
Warm temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba this weekend with highs in the upper 20s.

Back from vacation, and I’m glad to say our first forecast back is a nice one. Over the next few days, the upper-level pattern over the Prairies will stay relatively stagnant. An upper ridge over the western Prairies will slowly build and nudge eastwards while a few disturbances rotate through central and northern Manitoba.

In Winnipeg, this will mean that temperatures will be fairly consistent in the days ahead; highs should sit in the upper 20s while overnight lows dip to the mid- to upper teens.

There will be plenty of sunshine in the city in the days ahead too. Today will bring some cloudy periods; there’s a small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this morning as a shortwave moves through the area, and then again late in the day as a weak upper trough approaches from the northwest. 

Heading into the weekend, conditions will settle with sunny to mixed skies. Winds will be generally light, but Saturday could bring northwesterlies into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

The big question for the coming days will be just how much smoke the city will see with this weather pattern. Satellite pictures last night showed a decent plume of smoke to the northwest, corroborated by reports of poor visibility in The Pas and Flin Flon through the day. That smoke will gradually shift towards southern Manitoba. It shouldn’t be too bad today, but we’ll likely see smokier conditions develop at some point on Saturday and persist into Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

To start off next week, the upper ridge will build eastwards into Manitoba and bring more heat to the region. Temperatures will climb into the low 30s with dew points heading towards the 20 °C mark. This will make for a rather hot and humid first half of the week with Humidex values reaching into the upper 30s. Some unsettled weather is possible mid-week with near-seasonal temperatures returning to end the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Unsettled Conditions Break The Heat

Brad Leave a comment

A cold front pushing through southern Manitoba will bring a chance of showers to Winnipeg along with some relief from the heat.

Temperatures will climb to a high near 30 °C today as the summer heat continues across southern Manitoba. Smoke will also be sticking around for much of the day as well with a southerly wind near 30 km/h. By late in the day, a low pressure system will cross the province and drag a cold front south. This will bring some scattered showers to the region with the chance of a thunderstorm or two.

Winds will switch to the northwest behind the low, likely ushering one more shot of thicker smoke. Air quality be substantially degraded this evening. Cloudy periods will persist through the night with a chance of showers late in the night into Thursday morning. The smoke will begin to clear out overnight as temperature dip to a low near 18 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Thursday August 5, 2021
Showers are possible across much of central and southern Manitoba on Wednesday into Thursday morning.

There will be a small chance of a shower early Thursday morning as the cold front swings through, then skies will begin to clear out.Northerly winds pick up into the 20–30 km/h range with a high near 25 °C in Winnipeg. The city should see better air quality through the day and some sunshine through the afternoon hours. Temperatures will head to a low near 15 °C on Thursday night with easing winds.

For Friday, a ridge of high pressure to the north will bring partly cloudy skies to the region. Temperatures will climb to a high near 28 °C with light easterly winds.

The forest fire smoke should stay primarily to the east of Winnipeg on Thursday and Friday, but there will be a small chance that some of it drifts into the region from time to time.

Long Range Outlook

Warm weather will return to the region this weekend with highs climbing back towards the 30 °C mark. Another low pressure system working its way across the region will bring more humid conditions to the region with a chance of showers or thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.

The potential for more unsettled weather is possible to start next week, followed by a return to seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Hot And Smoky in Winnipeg

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see more smoky weather as an upper ridge sends temperatures soaring.

Winnipeg will see several days ahead with highs climbing above 30 °C as a potent upper ridge pushes eastwards across the Prairies. With the upper ridge will come broad subsidence and mainly sunny skies over the next few days.

Unfortunately, Winnipeg will continue to see periods of smoke as well. Conditions will likely be worst today, improve for tomorrow, then degrade a bit again on Wednesday.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday August 3, 2021
Winnipeg will see very warm temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the 30s.

Overnight lows will be seasonably warm, though it will be a very warm night on Tuesday night when the warmest air is over the region.

It will stay dry over the next few days, but a few showers or thunderstorms may be possible later Wednesday. A low pressure system will be dropping southwards into the region and may trigger more scattered thunderstorms.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will see a return to seasonal temperatures in the second half of the week with variable cloudiness. There might be a small chance of some showers, but no notable rainfall is likely.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.