Warm Summer Weather Ahead, But Smokier Conditions This Weekend

Winnipeg will see warm summer temperatures over the next few days with plenty of sunshine for the weekend, but wildfire smoke will make a reappearance.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday July 22, 2023
Warm temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba this weekend with highs in the upper 20s.

Back from vacation, and I’m glad to say our first forecast back is a nice one. Over the next few days, the upper-level pattern over the Prairies will stay relatively stagnant. An upper ridge over the western Prairies will slowly build and nudge eastwards while a few disturbances rotate through central and northern Manitoba.

In Winnipeg, this will mean that temperatures will be fairly consistent in the days ahead; highs should sit in the upper 20s while overnight lows dip to the mid- to upper teens.

There will be plenty of sunshine in the city in the days ahead too. Today will bring some cloudy periods; there’s a small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this morning as a shortwave moves through the area, and then again late in the day as a weak upper trough approaches from the northwest. 

Heading into the weekend, conditions will settle with sunny to mixed skies. Winds will be generally light, but Saturday could bring northwesterlies into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

The big question for the coming days will be just how much smoke the city will see with this weather pattern. Satellite pictures last night showed a decent plume of smoke to the northwest, corroborated by reports of poor visibility in The Pas and Flin Flon through the day. That smoke will gradually shift towards southern Manitoba. It shouldn’t be too bad today, but we’ll likely see smokier conditions develop at some point on Saturday and persist into Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

To start off next week, the upper ridge will build eastwards into Manitoba and bring more heat to the region. Temperatures will climb into the low 30s with dew points heading towards the 20 °C mark. This will make for a rather hot and humid first half of the week with Humidex values reaching into the upper 30s. Some unsettled weather is possible mid-week with near-seasonal temperatures returning to end the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Unsettled Conditions Break The Heat

A cold front pushing through southern Manitoba will bring a chance of showers to Winnipeg along with some relief from the heat.

Temperatures will climb to a high near 30 °C today as the summer heat continues across southern Manitoba. Smoke will also be sticking around for much of the day as well with a southerly wind near 30 km/h. By late in the day, a low pressure system will cross the province and drag a cold front south. This will bring some scattered showers to the region with the chance of a thunderstorm or two.

Winds will switch to the northwest behind the low, likely ushering one more shot of thicker smoke. Air quality be substantially degraded this evening. Cloudy periods will persist through the night with a chance of showers late in the night into Thursday morning. The smoke will begin to clear out overnight as temperature dip to a low near 18 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Thursday August 5, 2021
Showers are possible across much of central and southern Manitoba on Wednesday into Thursday morning.

There will be a small chance of a shower early Thursday morning as the cold front swings through, then skies will begin to clear out.Northerly winds pick up into the 20–30 km/h range with a high near 25 °C in Winnipeg. The city should see better air quality through the day and some sunshine through the afternoon hours. Temperatures will head to a low near 15 °C on Thursday night with easing winds.

For Friday, a ridge of high pressure to the north will bring partly cloudy skies to the region. Temperatures will climb to a high near 28 °C with light easterly winds.

The forest fire smoke should stay primarily to the east of Winnipeg on Thursday and Friday, but there will be a small chance that some of it drifts into the region from time to time.

Long Range Outlook

Warm weather will return to the region this weekend with highs climbing back towards the 30 °C mark. Another low pressure system working its way across the region will bring more humid conditions to the region with a chance of showers or thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.

The potential for more unsettled weather is possible to start next week, followed by a return to seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Hot And Smoky in Winnipeg

Winnipeg will see more smoky weather as an upper ridge sends temperatures soaring.

Winnipeg will see several days ahead with highs climbing above 30 °C as a potent upper ridge pushes eastwards across the Prairies. With the upper ridge will come broad subsidence and mainly sunny skies over the next few days.

Unfortunately, Winnipeg will continue to see periods of smoke as well. Conditions will likely be worst today, improve for tomorrow, then degrade a bit again on Wednesday.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday August 3, 2021
Winnipeg will see very warm temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the 30s.

Overnight lows will be seasonably warm, though it will be a very warm night on Tuesday night when the warmest air is over the region.

It will stay dry over the next few days, but a few showers or thunderstorms may be possible later Wednesday. A low pressure system will be dropping southwards into the region and may trigger more scattered thunderstorms.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will see a return to seasonal temperatures in the second half of the week with variable cloudiness. There might be a small chance of some showers, but no notable rainfall is likely.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Smoky Weekend Ahead for Winnipeg

A high pressure system building across the Prairies will spread wildfire smoke into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba this weekend.

Winnipeg will start the day off with hazy conditions and a southwest wind of 20–30 km/h. Temperatures will warm to a high near 30 °C this afternoon with winds gradually shifting to the northwest as a trough slumps southwards. There will be a slight chance for showers or a thunderstorm in the latter half of the afternoon, but the activity will be more likely to develop south of Winnipeg.

Beginning tonight, Winnipeg and area will see northerly winds ahead of an approaching high pressure system. They’ll pick up to 30 gusting 50 km/h on Saturday and stay relatively light on Sunday. But through the weekend these winds will draw forest fire smoke southwards from several fires burning across the region. Thick plumes of smoke will move through the region over the coming days. They will produce reduced visibilities and very poor air quality.

RAP-SMOKE Near-Surface Smoke Forecast valid 07Z Sunday August 1, 2021
Portions of the Red River Valley along with all of southeastern Manitoba will see dense smoke plumes at times this weekend from wildfires burning east of Lake Winnipeg.

For Winnipeg, two significant air quality events are forecast to occur. The first will start tonight into Saturday morning and the other will begin Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Both of these events are likely to produce extremely poor air quality. While there will be some measure of improvement between them, that isn’t to say that air quality will become “good”. It is likely that much of the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba will see generally poor air quality through the coming weekend. Some improvement is likely into next week as the winds begin to shift.

While the skies won’t have many clouds on Saturday or Sunday, there will be a layer of smoke aloft blanketing the region much of the weekend. Highs will climb into the upper 20s with lows in the low to mid teens.

Long Range Outlook

An upper ridge will amplify over the Prairies later in the weekend and gradually shift east through next week. This will likely bring an improvement to Winnipeg’s smoke conditions, but will also bring very warm temperatures into the region. Winnipeg will likely see highs in the upper 20s or low 30s through much of next week with dry conditions.

No significant rainfall is in the forecast; combined with the week of warm weather ahead, the drought situation over southern Manitoba will continue to worsen.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.