Beautiful Weekend Ahead for Winnipeg

A push of warm air will bring beautiful spring weather to southern Manitoba this weekend.

3km NAM simulated RADAR reflectivity valid 04Z Saturday April 13, 2024
Elevated showers with the risk of a thundershower are possible overnight Friday across southern Manitoba.

A low pressure system lifting from northern Alberta into the southern Arctic will drag a warm front across the southern Prairies. This will spread seasonably mild temperatures into the province for the weekend.

For today, though, a ridge of high pressure over the province will bring partly cloudy skies with a high near 10 °C.

The warm front will push east across Saskatchewan today, pushing into southern Manitoba into Saturday morning. This will bring cloud cover into the region and keep overnight lows mild near +5 °C. As this warm front tracks into Manitoba, there may be enough mid-level instability for scattered showers or thunderstorms overnight into Saturday morning.

Once the morning cloud clears out, Saturday will be a pleasant day across southern Manitoba with partly cloudy skies and daytime highs in the upper teens or low 20s.

Temperatures will dip to around 5 °C again on Saturday night.

A ridge of high pressure that moves into the region on Sunday will bring sunny skies and a high in the upper teens.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring a low pressure complex to the Canadian Prairies and American Plains, driven by a potent Colorado Low. This system will bring showers, thunderstorms, and snow to various parts of the southern Prairies beginning on Monday and lasting through Thursday.

The heaviest snow will likely spread from central Saskatchewan into central Manitoba where anywhere from 40 to 60 cm is possible. To the south of this, many areas will see varying amounts of a mix of precipitation. It will trend more towards snow in Saskatchewan while southern Manitoba sees a greater mix of rain and snow.

Winnipeg is looking to be tucked away in a comparatively warm pocket that includes the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. Current outlooks would suggest that this area mainly sees a few waves of rain and drizzle, with snow holding off until lighter wrap-around snow moves through as the system leaves the region.

This will be a complex system with evolving forecasts over the coming days. You can check the latest forecasts on the Meteorological Service of Canada’s website.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -3 °C.

Weekend Storm to Bring Wintery Mix to Southern Manitoba

A winter storm moving into the province on Sunday will bring a mix of wintery weather to southern Manitoba.

ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z March 4, 2024
A potent winter storm will move into southern Manitoba this weekend, but Winnipeg may be spared from the worst of it.

Before the storm arrives, though, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend in Winnipeg. Temperatures will climb above freezing today as a low pressure system crosses through central Manitoba. It will drag mild Pacific air across the south, sending daytime highs into the 5 to 10 °C range through the Red River Valley.

Breezy southerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h this morning will ease midday as Winnipeg moves into the warm sector of this system. The region will see mixed skies develop this afternoon, followed by more organized cloud cover as a cold front slumps into the region tonight. As the cold front moves into the region, northwest winds will pick up into the 20 to 30 km/h range and then ease overnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near -10 °C.

Saturday will bring mixed skies to the region as the next weather system to impact the region begins to take shape. Northeast winds will pick up into the 20 to 30 km/h range as a low centre begins to develop in the Northern Plains of the United States. Skies will cloud over through the day with light snow possible by the late afternoon or evening.

Temperatures will climb to a high near -5 °C by the evening and continue to rise to the freezing mark by Sunday morning. The snow will taper off overnight, leaving behind a couple centimetres, and be replaced with a risk of freezing drizzle into Sunday morning.

On Sunday, the low centre will lift out of the United States and into Southern Manitoba. This system impact the entirety of southern Manitoba and bring adverse winter storm conditions to many regions. In the sake of brevity, here’s what to expect for each weather element.

Heavy Snow

This low pressure system will spread an area of heavy snowfall across southern Saskatchewan and into southern Manitoba. Because this low will bring a surge of warm air into the Red River Valley and SE Manitoba, there is uncertainty as to how far east the heavy snow will reach.

ECMWF 24-hour Snowfall Accumulation (10:1 SLR) Foreacst valid 12Z Monday March 4, 2024
This storm will spread heavy snow through Saskatchewan into western and central Manitoba. There is uncertainty to how far southeast the notable snow accumulations may push.

That said, through southwest Manitoba, Parkland Manitoba, and much of the Interlake, this system will bring 15 to 35 cm of fresh snow. Amounts will taper off gradually into central Manitoba and sharply into the warm sector of above-freezing air.

Freezing Rain

This system will support a band of freezing rain that develops along its advancing flank and will likely cut across the Red River Valley and SE Manitoba. Note that this risk area could shift west or east over the coming days as the system takes shape. That said, the risk of freezing rain will begin early Sunday and persist through the day. Freezing rain across southern Manitoba will come to an end on Sunday evening as the low begins to track east and colder air sweeps into the southeast corner of the province.

ECMWF Precipitation Type Forecast valid 00Z Monday March 4, 2024
This storm will bring a mix of wintery precipitation to southern Manitoba.


To the east and south of the freezing rain band, temperatures will warm enough for any precipitation that falls to fall as rain. This will include much of SE Manitoba but could push as far west as Winnipeg and north as Lake Winnipeg. Rainfalls totals could reach as high as 5 to 10 mm, but much more of the precipitation should fall on the cold side of the system as snow.

Additionally, there are early signals that as the cold front wraps around this low, convective cells may develop along the rain band associated with it. A few rumbles of thunder and heavier rain showers can’t be ruled out close to the U.S. border late Sunday into the evening.

A Guess for Winnipeg?

In Winnipeg, it looks like a risk of freezing rain on Sunday morning will transition to light rain, and then to periods of snow in the afternoon as cooler air moves in. There is significant uncertainty with this, though, and even a 50 km shift in storm track could end up changing the forecast to 10 to 20 cm of snow. On the other hand, if the storm ends up 50 km further west, much of the Red River Valley, Winnipeg included, could be in this storm’s dry slot and see little beyond a couple waves of light snow or rain and a lot of drizzle.

Be sure to keep an eye for updated forecasts as the event draws near. If you’re in SW or Parkland Manitoba, be prepared for poor conditions on Sunday as a notable winter storm moves through the region.

Long Range Outlook

Light snow will taper off across central Manitoba on Monday. There may be a small chance of flurries in Winnipeg on Monday, but the activity should stay mainly to the north. The first half of next week will be cooler with highs in the -10 to -5 °C range.

Another low pressure system will slice its way northwards through Manitoba mid-week; it will bring another chance of mixed precipitation to the province and bring milder weather back to the Red River Valley and areas east.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.

Summer Heat Returns This Weekend in Winnipeg

Winnipeg will see one last blast of summer this weekend before fall weather moves in next week. Daytime highs in the upper 20s and the risk of severe thunderstorms return to southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday October 1, 2023
Warm and humid late-season warmth will push into southern Manitoba on Sunday with highs in the upper 20s and relatively humid conditions.

The work week will end on a pleasant note in Winnipeg with mixed skies today and a daytime high in the low 20s. Temperatures will dip down into the mid-single digits tonight, a cooler low thanks to a weak area of high pressure moving through the province.

On Saturday, the region will see light east-southeast winds as temperatures climb back up into the low 20s. Skies should stay mainly sunny through the day, but some cloud could start pushing into the region later in the day.

Heading through Saturday night into Sunday, there will be a very strong push of warmer air northwards as a low pressure system lifts through the United States towards the southeastern Prairies. A warm front will push northwards through the night with notable late-season instability developing towards Sunday morning.

By early Sunday morning, MUCAPE values are forecast to climb above 1,000 J/kg as moist air sourced from dew points in the upper teens ascends over the warm front. This will likely support elevated convection into Sunday morning, starting in SW Manitoba and progressing east-northeast. There is a risk that some of these thunderstorms could be severe with the main threat being large hail.

Sunday will be a very warm day if everything goes as planned. The warm front will lift north of Winnipeg, putting the city back into a hot and humid air mass. Temperatures will likely climb into the upper 20s with dew points reaching the high teens, making it feel more like low to mid 30s. An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible near the warm front late in the day, but it’s just as likely that the capping inversion will hold.

Temperatures will dip back down into the mid-teens on Sunday night with cloudier skies and a chance of showers.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will mark the slow transition to more fall-like weather across the region. Winnipeg will see cloudier skies with numerous chances for showers as the daytime highs gradually drop from around 20 °C to around 10 °C. Even cooler weather may move into the region to start the week after, so enjoy that last blast of summer warmth on Sunday before the chill sets in!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +4 °C.

Showers and Smoke Today, Pleasant Week Afterwards

Winnipeg will see morning showers and widespread smoke today as a low pressure system passes by the region. Much more pleasant weather will return for the rest of the week and the start of school.

ECMWF 6-hour Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 18Z Tuesday September 5, 2023ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Tuesday September 5, 2023
Some lingering [thunder]showers will push off into Ontario on Tuesday morning, leaving behind a relatively cool day with highs near the 20 °C mark across southern Manitoba.

After the night’s heavier rain, a few showers or thunderstorms will drift northeastwards early this morning, clearing out of the Red River Valley as a low pressure system moves into Ontario. In its wake, widespread smoke will linger through much of southern Manitoba. This will give very poor air quality to the region and has resulted in a special air quality statement from the MSC. Winnipeg will likely see mainly cloudy skies today, though some late-day sun is possible. It will be a cool day, though, contrasting with the weekend heat as the daytime high only climbs to around 20 °C. Breezy northerly winds will abate this evening as skies clear. Temperatures will head down to a low near 10 °C.

Heading into the rest of the week, a steady and relatively stable pattern develops for the Winnipeg area. With a generally zonal flow aloft and disturbances tracking well to the north, conditions will trend fairly sunny throughout the Red River Valley. Smoke may be noticeable on a couple days through the rest of the week, but it’s unlikely to get anywhere near as bad as Tuesday’s conditions. And temperature-wise, there’s no complaints for the rest of the week with near-seasonal values expected. Highs will sit in the low 20s with lows dipping into the upper single digits.

Long Range Outlook

It currently looks like more of the same in the Red River Valley for the weekend and start of next week. Smoke will be the only wildcard in the long-range forecast, so we’ll keep our eyes peeled in case the potential for another bout of poor air quality arises.

After today’s smokey weather clears out, enjoy the beautiful late-summer weather!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.