More Unsettled Weather Ahead For Winnipeg

Southern Manitoba will see a mix of weather this week with more rain on Thursday.

NAM 24hr. Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 12Z Friday May 13, 2022
Southern Manitoba will see another soaking on Thursday with a widespread 15–30 mm of rain across many areas and some locally higher accumulations.

The region will get a bit of a chance to dry out today, a welcome change after the 15–25 mm of rain seen across most of the region yesterday. Sunnier skies will send highs near 20 °C, but it will be windy this afternoon. Southwest winds will pick up into the 40–50 km/h range this afternoon.

The winds will taper off this evening as a ridge moves across the region. Lows will dip into the upper single digits. More cloud will push into the region early Wednesday morning as a push of warmer air begins moving in aloft from the Dakotas.

Wednesday will bring cloudy skies to the region with a chance of showers a warm front slowly continues northwards towards southern Manitoba. Temperatures should climb into the upper teens with northeast winds picking up to 20–30 km/h through the afternoon. A few sunny breaks might materialize later in the day, but skies will cloud back over in the evening.

The next storm system to impact the region will begin its approach on Thursday night. It will spread showers and thunderstorms into the Dakotas as it moves northwards, reaching the Manitoba border by Thursday morning. A broad area of rain will move through the region on Thursday, bringing another 15–30 mm of rain to the Red River Valley. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible and could result in locally higher rainfall accumulations. A more organized thunderstorm threat will develop late in the day, but will highly likely be for southeastern Manitoba into MN/ND. The rain will taper off by Thursday evening with just a few lingering showers hanging around until Friday morning. Temperatures will sit in the mid-teens on Thursday with breezy northeast winds.

Some sunshine will poke through later on Friday with temperatures climbing back towards the 20 °C mark. Moderate southwesterlies will develop through the day, climbing into the 40–50 km/h range.

Long Range Outlook

Cooler temperatures will build into the region for the weekend in the wake of this next storm system. Highs will fall into the 10–15 °C range with mixed skies over the weekend. Warmer weather will begin building back into the region near the middle of next week. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like any frost is in the forecast; overnight lows should drop only to the mid-single digits.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.

Mild Spring Conditions Continue; Windy with Showers Possible This Weekend

Temperatures will stay mild in Winnipeg through the weekend, but sunshine will give way to more chances for showers.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday May 7, 2022
Summer-like warmth will spread through southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Warmer weather will continue to push into the Red River Valley over the coming days. Daytime highs will stay in teh 20s, reaching close to the mid-20s on Saturday. This push of warmer weather is thanks to a stubborn low pressure system over the northern Prairies. It will support a southerly flow over the southeastern Prairies, drawing a consistent stream of milder air northwards. With that, though, will also come several disturbances that will also move north in the flow.

After a plenty of sunshine day today, a broken line of showers will push across the Red River Valley. Supported only by a weakening trowal, the showers won’t likely amount to much. Skies will clear out overnight as temperatures dip into the low teens.

Saturday will be a slightly more interesting weather day across the region. Off to a sunny start, the day will warm up quickly. Winnipeg should reach 20 °C by noon, and climb close to 25 °C in the afternoon. Of note will be that it will become quite windy in the afternoon with strong southerly winds of 50–60 km/h. This will be particularly concerning as the winds will generate significant wave action on the flood waters through the valley. This will produce stress on flooded roads and flood barriers in place; consult local EMOs on whether you might need to take any additional action to reinforce any personal flood protection structures.

Later in the day, cloud will push into the region as a low pressure system lifts from eastern Montana into western Manitoba. This low will support an area of rain that moves through southeast Saskatchewan into western Manitoba through the day.

For our region, showers will likely develop late in the day as a cold front starts pushing eastwards towards the Red River Valley. By evening, the forcing of the cold front will combine with a strengthening low-level jet, triggering a line of showers and thunderstorms. The storm environment is even relatively supportive for this time of year. As long as the forecasted moisture advection from the American Plains is able to materialize, the storms will have a moderate amount of energy to work with and ample wind shear to organize it.

The storms will likely trigger close to the Saskatchewan border, then move east-southeast. Some of these storms may be severe with the potential for damaging hail and strong wind gusts. As the line approaches the Red River Valley, it will dig into the low-level jet, developing southwards. As a result, the storms in Manitoba will weaken as they head into the Red River Valley, making it more likely that our area sees some collapsing showers or weak thundershowers, although stronger storms could linger closer to the U.S. border.

3km NAM Simulated RADAR Reflectivity Forecast valid 01Z Sunday May 8, 2022
Thunderstorms are likely over southwestern Manitoba on Saturday afternoon, pushing towards the Red River Vally into the evening hours.

Temperatures will drop down to around 10 °C on Saturday night. Showers will be possible through the night.

On Sunday, the region could see some morning showers but its highly dependent on the evolution of this system. The rest of the day will bring mixed skies to the region as we sit on the edge of a system passing to the east. Temperatures will still be mild with highs in the upper teens.

Long Range Outlook

On Monday, another disturbance will move into the province bringing more showers and a risk of thunderstorms to the region. After that, a couple nice days are in store, then another chance of showers or thunderstorms will develop later in the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 17 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 3 °C.

Another Hot Day; Seasonably Warm Temperatures Continue

Summer-like weather will persist through the end of the week, sending September 2021 off with beautiful conditions.

A potent upper-level ridge will bring another hot day to southern Manitoba today. Temperatures will climb up to the 30 °C mark again today with breezy southerly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h. The region will see plenty of sunshine today despite a bit of cloud building in through the day.

It will be a mild night with a low near 15 °C as the winds ease. A cold front will gradually slide across the Red River Valley overnight, bringing a chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region with it. Most of the activity will likely stay over the western portion of the valley, but a few showers may push eastwards early Thursday. By Thursday morning, Winnipeg will see mostly cloudy skies with a light northwest wind.

HRRR Simulated Reflectivity valid 04Z Thursday September 30, 2021
Scattered showers and/or thunderstorms will lift northwards through the western Red River Valley along an advancing cold front on Wednesday evening.

The system bringing the unsettled conditions will be tracking eastwards slowly on Thursday, bringing mainly cloudy skies to the region. There will be just a slight chance of an isolated shower or two through the day. Temperatures will be cooler but still well above seasonal averages with a high near 20 °C. The cloud cover should break up on Thursday night as temperatures head to a low near 8 °C.

A ridge of high pressure will bring sun back to the region on Friday. Winnipeg will see light northerly winds and a high near 22 °C. Temperatures will dip to a low near 6 °C on Friday night under mainly clear skies.

Long Range Outlook

The region will see beautiful weather this weekend with highs in the low 20s, partly cloudy skies, and light winds. Lows will sit in the upper single digits. The mild weather will continue into next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.

Unsettled Conditions Break The Heat

A cold front pushing through southern Manitoba will bring a chance of showers to Winnipeg along with some relief from the heat.

Temperatures will climb to a high near 30 °C today as the summer heat continues across southern Manitoba. Smoke will also be sticking around for much of the day as well with a southerly wind near 30 km/h. By late in the day, a low pressure system will cross the province and drag a cold front south. This will bring some scattered showers to the region with the chance of a thunderstorm or two.

Winds will switch to the northwest behind the low, likely ushering one more shot of thicker smoke. Air quality be substantially degraded this evening. Cloudy periods will persist through the night with a chance of showers late in the night into Thursday morning. The smoke will begin to clear out overnight as temperature dip to a low near 18 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Thursday August 5, 2021
Showers are possible across much of central and southern Manitoba on Wednesday into Thursday morning.

There will be a small chance of a shower early Thursday morning as the cold front swings through, then skies will begin to clear out.Northerly winds pick up into the 20–30 km/h range with a high near 25 °C in Winnipeg. The city should see better air quality through the day and some sunshine through the afternoon hours. Temperatures will head to a low near 15 °C on Thursday night with easing winds.

For Friday, a ridge of high pressure to the north will bring partly cloudy skies to the region. Temperatures will climb to a high near 28 °C with light easterly winds.

The forest fire smoke should stay primarily to the east of Winnipeg on Thursday and Friday, but there will be a small chance that some of it drifts into the region from time to time.

Long Range Outlook

Warm weather will return to the region this weekend with highs climbing back towards the 30 °C mark. Another low pressure system working its way across the region will bring more humid conditions to the region with a chance of showers or thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.

The potential for more unsettled weather is possible to start next week, followed by a return to seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.