Unsettled Conditions Persist Into the Weekend for Winnipeg

The chance of showers and thunderstorms will keep coming back to the Winnipeg area as a couple more disturbances cross the region in the coming days.

NAM 24 hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Sunday June 23, 2024
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through southern Manitoba on Saturday.

After dodging thunderstorms yesterday that hovered in the sky to the west and north of Winnipeg much of yesterday, the city will see a pleasant end to the work week. A broad area of high pressure will sit over the region and bring sunshine and warm temperatures to the city. After a sunny start to the day, skies will turn partly cloudy as daytime highs climb into the mid-20s this afternoon.

Temperatures will head down into the mid-teens tonight with partly cloudy skies.

On Saturday, the region will see increasing cloud as a disturbance moves into Manitoba from Saskatchewan. While showers and thunderstorms will be possible over west and southwest Manitoba through the day, the wet weather will likely hold off until later in the day for the Red River Valley. By late afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely drift southeast through the region, with rain likely in the Winnipeg area.

There isn’t likely a widespread severe weather threat on Saturday for Winnipeg. The instability and wind shear required to organize a thunderstorm will be limited and while a strong thunderstorm is possible, severe weather is unlikely. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening, then taper off overnight.

Temperatures will climb back into the 20 to 25 °C range on Saturday, then dip back down into the mid-teens on Saturday night with cloudier skies.

Sunday will bring another ridge of high pressure through the region. This should clear the clouds out for a sunny afternoon with a high back in the mid-20s. The region will have northerly winds up to the 20 to 30 km/h range. Temperatures will head back down to the mid-teens on Sunday night with partly cloudy skies.

Long Range Outlook

Another low pressure system will move through the region on Monday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Winnipeg area. After that, there is a chance that the region could see stabler conditions for the rest of the week with near-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Warm, Humid, and Unsettled Weekend Ahead

Southern Manitoba will see humid conditions develop this weekend as a warm and unsettled pattern develops over the region.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday June 15, 2024
Humid conditions will develop across southern Manitoba on Saturday.

To end the work week, an area of high pressure will gradually shift east out of the province through the day. This will bring a warm and settled day to the region with a high in the 25 to 30 °C range and partly cloudy skies. Southerly winds will begin to pick up later in the day and mark the beginning of the weather pattern that will persist through the weekend.

An upper trough will dig southwards over western North America through the weekend; this will support a prolonged southerly flow at the surface while disturbances eject northeast across the region over the next few days.

Humid Weather Arrives This Weekend

The southerly winds at the surface will draw heat and humidity northwards through the weekend. Daytime highs won’t be excessive through the weekend, likely in the mid-20s, but the region will likely see its first surge of humid conditions.

The humidity will be comfortable today with dew points in the low teens, but more humid conditions will quickly develop on Saturday. Dew point values will climb into the mid- to upper teens on Saturday, then hover in the 16 to 20 °C range overnight Saturday, then increase towards 20 °C ahead of a cold front on Sunday. As the cold front sweeps through on Sunday afternoon, drier air will sweep into the region and bring relief.

The humidity will keep temperatures warm on Saturday night with overnight lows in the 18 to 22 °C range across many parts of southern Manitoba.

Stormy Conditions Possible

Weather-wise, there will be several chances for stormy weather through the weekend. The first disturbance will be a weak area of low pressure that pushes into southern Manitoba tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the second half of the night into Saturday morning.

The activity will taper off on Saturday afternoon, then another disturbance will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Saturday evening and overnight. Sunday will be more settled, but there will be a low chance of showers or thunderstorms with the cold front as it sweeps east.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start unsettled as the deep upper trough remains over western North America. Waves of rain and thunderstorms will be possible across southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday, then more settled conditions will move in for the middle of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Unsettled Week Leads to Warm Weekend

Winnipeg will see a few more days of unsettled conditions, but the weather will settle heading into the weekend as temperatures climb into the upper 20s.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday June 12, 2024
A sharp warm front will move into southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

To start things off today, showers that moved in overnight will continue to track east out of the region. There may be a few sunny breaks this morning, but more cloud will spread into the region for midday. An upper low moving into the province this afternoon will destabilize things and bring a chance for a few showers or thundershowers. Temperatures will climb to a high in the low 20s with morning southerlies easing followed by moderate westerlies picking up to 40 gusting 60 km/h in the afternoon.

The cloud cover will break up tonight with temperatures dipping down to around 10 °C as winds ease. There may be a low chance for a few passing showers overnight.

On Wednesday, another low developing over the western Prairies will push a warm front across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid-20s in Winnipeg and other areas along and south of the front, while cloudier and cooler temperatures stick around for areas north. Heading into the afternoon, though, this front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. This feature will bring higher levels of energy to the region to fuel thunderstorms; MLCAPE — mixed-layer CAPE, a measure of energy available for a thunderstorm to use — will climb to around 1,000 J/kg and be coupled with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer wind shear. These values will combine to bring a risk of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms to southern Manitoba on Wednesday afternoon.

This activity will taper off heading into the night, though isolated showers could linger into the early morning hours of Thursday. Temperatures will dip down into the low teens.

On Thursday, an upper low will track across southern Manitoba. It will bring temperatures back down to the low 20s in Winnipeg along with mixed skies and a chance of showers. Skies will clear up on Thursday night with temperatures heading down into the low teens again.

Long Range Outlook

The weather will finally settle down on Friday with sunnier skies as an area of high pressure crosses the province. Warmer air will begin building into the region on Friday with daytime highs climbing back into the mid-20s.

A deep southerly flow will develop for the weekend, ushering more heat and moisture northwards. This will help push temperatures into the mid- to upper-20s with dew points rising into the mid-teens. While not anything that will feel overly humid or sticky, the humidity will be more noticeable than it has for most of the year so far.

Unfortunately, this push of warmer weather looks likely to bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for multiple waves of showers or thunderstorms to push across southern Manitoba.

Cooler, more settled conditions are likely to start next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Seasonably Cool and Unsettled for a Few More Days

Cool and unsettled weather will continue across southern Manitoba into the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday June 7, 2024
Seasonal daytime highs in the low 20s will be in place across the southern Prairies today.

A slow-moving upper low will continue to impact the region today as it slumps southeast out of Saskatchewan. It will bring breezy westerly winds to the region as highs climb to around 20 °C. Like yesterday, morning sun will give way to afternoon cloud as another weak disturbance ripples through the region. It will bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms to much of southern Manitoba, but the Parkland and Interlake regions will see the most of the activity.

The convective showers will taper off this evening and skies will clear. Temperatures will head down to a low near 10 °C with light winds.

On Saturday, the upper low will move through southern Manitoba. Temperatures will again head to a high near 20 °C but winds will be lighter than they will be today. A sunny start will turn to mixed skies with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Everything will clear out with the lowering evening sun, then temperatures will head to a low in the 5 to 10 °C range.

On Sunday, another sunny start will give way to mixed to cloudy skies as a hang-back trough from the departing upper low swings through. It doesn’t look like there will be much of a chance of showers, but it will be a cool day. Daytime highs in the region will reach into the 15 to 20 °C range with north winds at 20 to 30 km/h. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, skies should clear out for Sunday night as lows head down into the single-digits.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will likely bring a return to seasonal temperatures, but there will be a series of disturbances that bring more wet weather to southern Manitoba:

  • On Monday night, a low pressure system moving into the region from North Dakota could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to southern Manitoba. This system could bring a variable 10 to 40 mm to the region.
  • A disturbance clipping through the region on Wednesday could bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms to central and southern Mantioba.
  • …and again on Thursday, though at this point it looks like any precipitation should stay north of Winnipeg.
  • And then looking irresponsibly far out, another convective system from the United States could move into the region on Saturday into Sunday, bringing moderate rainfall to parts of the province in showers and thunderstorms.

No dry stretches in the forecast for our area anytime soon! As long as the rate of moisture accrual stays manageable, this could be a positive stretch of weather for many. Moisture is available for germinating plants, we’re not being roasted too early in the year, the frequent showers and seasonably cool conditions are helping fire conditions across the province, and the replenishment of groundwater will help areas of the province that have had to resort to water restrictions at times in recent years due to limited water supply.

We’ll be back next week; have a great weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.