A Chance of Showers Today, Mild Weekend Ahead

A weak trough pushing across SW Manitoba today will push into the Red River Valley this evening, bringing with it some scattered showers or thundershowers. Things will clear out quickly, and we’ll be looking at temperatures in the mid-20’s for the weekend.

GEMREG QPF for Friday Afternoon

Total expected precipitation from teh GEMREG model this afternoon.

We’ll have a slightly more unsettled day today as a weak surface trough pushes into the Red River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will climb up to just over the 20°C this afternoon before showers and thunderstorms develop over SW Manitoba and push eastwards into the Red River Valley. Dynamics begin to fall apart as the afternoon progresses, and any showers or thunderstorms will struggle to survive in an increasingly disorganized environment. It looks like the best chance of seeing some rain this afternoon will be through the Western Red River Valley, with diminishing chances east of the Red River. By the time the trough gets to the Whiteshell, the threat of precipitation will likely be over.

Saturday looks to be a gorgeous day as sunshine once again dominates across Southern Manitoba and highs climb to around 25°C. Things will turn a little more unsettled overnight on Saturday as an area of rain blossoms over Southern Saskatchewan and heads our way. The exact location of the rain is still uncertain, however best indications are that we’ll see a cloudy day across much of the Red River Valley, with the bulk of the rain passing north of Winnipeg through the interalke region, with only a chance of showers for Winnipeg and areas south. It will certainly be a system to keep an eye on as the weekend progresses.

Another Warm, Sunny Day with a Chance of Late-Day Showers & Thunderstorms

Another Beautiful Day
A shot of Downtown Winnipeg, August 18, 2011

A low pressure system moving into the Interlake has brought yet another day of sunny skies and daytime highs near 30°C to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley today. However, by late this afternoon, a trough moving through the RRV has the potential to produce a few showers or thunderstorms.

A southerly flow ahead of an incoming trough is pushing warm air up the Red River Valley which will push daytime highs to the 30°C – 33°C range today across the Red River Valley. Along with the warm temperatures, the southery flow will help increase our dew points from their current 11°C levels to 16°C – 18°C by late afternoon. This will make it feel a little muggy, but all in all, a very nice day on tap for everyone in the Red River Valley (which may be a good thing or a bad thing, depending on your occupation).

1500Z Surface Analysis
1500Z (10AM Local Time) Basic Surface Analysis

A trough associated with this low pressure system currently sits along the Manitoba Saskatchewan border (represented by the dashed black line in the image above) will move eastwards through the afternoon. As the trough moves into the area this evening (around 6 or 7 PM), a few scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop along a line running north-south along the trough. Again, as usual, Winnipeg itself has a 50/50 chance of showers splitting around the system as sources of lift begin to move north and south as they move eastwards.

Model Image
3hr. Precipitation Amounts from the 12Z GEM-REG Aug 18 Model Run valid 03Z Aug 19

After this little evening blip, we move into a slightly cooler pattern as a cold trough swings across the province, giving us daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20’s for the next couple days. Saturday and Sunday offer a slight chance of showers as a couple weak impulses slide across the region from the north-west.

Early next week, a significant upper ridge builds over the Southern Prairies which will bring more heat and dry weather to the region. Beginning Monday, temperatures across the RRV will climb into the low 30’s and stay there for much of the week as sunshine and a southerly flow dominate for much of the week.