After a soggy weekend in southern Manitoba, we’ll get a chance to dry out early this week. Temperatures will range from slightly below normal to slightly above normal for the first part of the week.
The Week Ahead
Today will be a dry and sunny day, a nice change from our wash-out of a weekend. Temperatures will be in the low twenties with a pleasant light and variable wind.
Tuesday looks like another nice day in southern Manitoba, with temperatures in the low to mid twenties and mainly sunny skies. The wind will be breezy and from the north-east.
Wednesday will see even warmer weather in southern Manitoba, with high temperatures in the mid to upper twenties and a gusty east wind. We may experience a risk of a thunderstorm on Wednesday as a more unstable air mass pushes north, though it’s too early to say for sure.
Long Range
Long range models suggest that unsettled weather will return to southern Manitoba later this week. That means we’ll likely see cooler weather from late this week into next weekend. There are also hints of a hotter pattern setting up next week, but again, it’s too early to say for sure.
Summary: Heavy Rainfall Drenches Much of Southern Manitoba
As mentioned at the beginning of the post, it was a very wet weekend across Southern Manitoba. The rain was brought to the region thanks to a stationary upper-level low pressure center that was anchored over eastern Montana. It produced a persistent southwesterly flow aloft over the province which provided both ample moisture and large amounts of lift, enabling days of showery weather. The situation worsened on Saturday night as a Colorado Low ejected north-northeastwards, pushing up towards Lake of the Woods. When the already-present lift and moisture was met with an intense system with even more moisture, the perfect recipe for heavy rain was met.
Rain begain early Sunday as showers or drizzle in many places and gradually worsened into moderate to heavy rain. The event lasted over 20 hours before things finally tapered off.
The situation was worsened in many regions thanks to the rain that fell on Saturday, however. Mid-day, a very narrow band of showers set up along a SW to NE line from Winnipeg to Beausejour and onwards to the northeast. Anywhere from 20-50mm fell in this line. It’s important to note how narrow this band was; in Winnipeg, although the airport and areas to the east-northeast through Transcona saw nearly an inch of rain from the shower activity, the southern half of the city saw less than 10mm. For the areas that saw the heavier shower activity, it did much to bolster the 2-day rainfall totals.
So without further ado, here are the rainfall totals across the region:
| Location | 2-Day Rainfall (mm) |
|---|---|
| Lockport (via CoCoRaHs) | 117 |
| Beausejour (via CoCoRaHs) | 89 |
| Winnipeg – The Forks | 71.8 |
| Pinawa | 71.5 |
| Winnipeg – Airport | 69.4 |
| Great Falls | 60 |
| Portage la Prairie | 48.3 |
| Emerson | 45.6 |
| Fisher Branch | 41.1 |
| Carman | 38.8 |
| Swan River | 35.8 |
| Deerwood | 35.6 |
| Wilson Creek | 33.9 |
| Sprague | 31.5 |
| Gimli | 28.7 |
| Roblin | 25.5 |
| Dauphin | 25.3 |
| Grand Rapids | 25 |
