Tag: Windy

A Very May Long Weekend Ahead

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After a brief heat wave that brought deadly fires to parts of southeast Manitoba, things will shift to the polar opposite for the long weekend.

ECMWF 24-hour Precipitation Accumulation valid 12Z Saturday May 17, 2025
A swath of accumulating rain will fall across southern Manitoba on Friday with a further 5 to 20 mm across the region.

There’s no beating around the bush, it’ll be a miserable day in Winnipeg today. As a potent low pressure system meanders through North Dakota and Minnesota, it will continue to wrap rain into the province while driving a cold front south. It will be a rainy day in Winnipeg today with strong northerly winds developing. Temperatures will fall into the mid-single digits this afternoon as those winds gust as high as 70 to 80 km/h.

Rainfall totals will vary across the Red River Valley, but accumulations will broadly fall into the 10 to 20 mm range with localized pockets of higher and lower accumulations. The main swath of rain will stretch from east of the south basin of Lake Winnipeg southwest through the Red River Valley. The rain will gradually taper off on Friday night as temperatures head down to a low near +2 or +3 °C.

Saturday will be a cold May day with northerly winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h and a high temperature that struggles to climb into the 5 to 10 °C range. Skies will stay cloudy through the day. Temperatures will drop into the 0 to 5 °C range on Saturday night under cloudy skies. A ridge of high pressure building into the region will finally bring an end to those moderate northerly winds.

Sunday will bring more cloud cover to the region, but sunshine may poke through later in the day. Temperatures will climb to around 10 °C with east winds around 20 km/h. Skies will clear out for Sunday night with a low in the 0 to 5 °C range.

A Note on Smoke

Over the coming days (and weeks?) wildfire smoke will be an occasional concern for the region. Multiple large fires are now burning in southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario, and their smoke plumes will move towards the region in any easterly or northeasterly wind. That said, it will be complicated to forecast for as the relative closeness of the fires means that depending on the conditions the plumes may be widespread in coverage or they may be narrow bands that stretch downwind of the fire.

Complicating things more will be the need to wait and see how the fires respond to this weekend’s rain and cooler temperatures.

All that to say that wildfire smoke may be a concern at times in the weeks ahead, if not for much of the summer. Moreover, these fires are ripping through cottage country, likely impacting someone you know.

The best thing that could happen is a stretch of cooler weather with frequent rain; we’ll see what happens in the weeks ahead.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the start of next week, it looks like temperatures will gradually climb back towards seasonal values with mainly sunny skies. At this point it doesn’t look like there will be much chance for precipitation through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

After a Sunny Tuesday, Cloudier and Warmer Weather Moves In

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Winnipeg will see sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures today, but another low crossing the Prairies will bring cloudier and warmer weather to the region mid-week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday April 16, 2025
A low pressure system crossing Saskatchewan will bring warmer weather to Winnipeg on Wednesday.

For today, skies will gradually clear as a ridge of high pressure shifts east of the Red River Valley. Winnipeg should see morning sunny breaks give way to mainly sunny skies this afternoon. Winds will be light through the day as temperatures climb into the upper single digits this afternoon. Heading into the evening, a low pressure system moving across Saskatchewan will push a warm front into southern Manitoba tonight. This will build cloud cover back into the region as temperatures head to a low near the freezing mark.

On Wednesday, the region will see mixed skies as the warm front pushes through in the morning and a cold front approaches in the evening. It will be a much warmer day with highs in the mid-teens across the region along with southerly winds of 30–40 km/h. The cold front will push a band of rain showers across the region early Wednesday night. The cloud cover will begin to break up overnight as winds ease and temperatures dip down to the low single digits.

Thursday will bring mixed skies to the region; morning cloud likely giving way to midday sun then a broader area of cloud beginning to build in from the northwest. Temperatures will climb into the 10 to 15 °C range with northwest winds picking up to around 30 km/h.

A colder air mass will settle into the region on Thursday night as temperatures dip below freezing with northwest winds continuing in the 20 to 30 km/h range.

Long Range Outlook

Friday will bring chilly weather to southern Manitoba with highs in the low single digits and cloudy skies. After another cool night on Friday night, seasonal temperatures will build back into the region for Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday should both bring pleasant conditions to Winnipeg with highs in the mid-teens. Conditions for next week are less clear; some weather models suggest a prolonged stretch of mild weather, while others suggest a slow-moving low pressure system lifting north that could bring a few days of cloudier weather with chances for rain.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -2 °C.

Seasonably Cool Weather Ahead This Week

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Temperatures will stay seasonably cool this week in Winnipeg as a couple glancing systems bring chances of light snow.

RPDS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Thursday April 3, 2025
Seasonal temperatures will build into Winnipeg by Thursday, but a weak cold front will sweep through on Thursday evening.

After a cool start to the morning, breezy southeast winds develop as a warm front pushes north towards southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb to a high near +2 °C this afternoon with southeast winds of 30–40 km/h gusting up to around 50 km/h. Skies will cloud over through the afternoon; this cloud cover will stick around into the night with a chance of flurries as the warm front moves through. Temperatures will dip down into the -5 to 0 °C range with southeast winds continuing near 20 km/h.

Wednesday will bring cloudy skies to the region as a strong low pressure system moves from the American Plains towards Lake Superior. Temperatures will climb to a high near +3 °C in Winnipeg with easterly winds near 20 km/h swinging around to the northwest through the day. There is a chance of light snow, but it will be contingent on the broader area of snow associated with the low to the south backing northwest all the way through the Red River Valley to Winnipeg. This is an uncertain proposition at this point, and even if the snow does make it this far north, accumulations should be minimal.

Temperatures will dip to the cold side of freezing on Wednesday night with skies staying cloudy.

The sun should appear again later Thursday as the low pressure system glancing by the region shifts off into eastern Canada. Temperatures should pop up to around 5 °C in the afternoon with northwest winds of 20–30 km/h. More cloud will move in later Thursday evening, though, as a cold front swings into the area from the northwest. Temperatures will dip into the -5 to 0 °C range on Thursday night with a chance of flurries.

Long Range Outlook

The cloud and chance of flurries will linger into Friday with temperatures gradually climbing back to the warm side of freezing. Clearing skies on Friday night coupled with a cooler air mass will likely send temperatures back down to around -10 °C by Saturday morning.

The weekend will bring variable cloudiness and cool weather to the Winnipeg area. Daytime highs will dip down to freezing by Sunday with chilly overnight lows.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -6 °C.

#awm_snow #awm_windy #awm_below_normal_temperatures

Cold Front Slams Through Southern Manitoba, Brings Brief Cool Snap

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A cold front will slam through southern Manitoba this morning and bring strong northerly winds that usher cooler temperatures into the region for a couple days.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 09Z Friday February 28, 2025
Southern Manitoba will wake up to strong northwest winds behind a cold front today.

A strong cold front has passed through Winnipeg early this morning and has brought strong northerly winds to the area. Widespread winds of 40 to 50 km/h will spread through the Red River Valley this morning, but stronger winds up to 60 gusting 90 km/h will be possible over and in the lee of Lake Manitoba. In particular, strong winds will persist through the morning hours in the corridor roughly between Portage la Prairie and the Elie region.

Blowing snow could be a concern with these winds, but the recent mild weather has glazed the top of the snow pack with ice. There may be flurries with the cold front, but any new snow will be limited. As a result, we don’t expect blowing snow to pose much of an issue this morning.

The winds will ease as the day progresses while temperatures call into the -15 to -10 °C range by the end of the afternoon. The clouds will clear out this evening as temperatures drop to around -20 °C overnight. The wind will ease to light overnight.

The forecast for the weekend is pretty simple. An Arctic high will slump into the province behind the cold front and gradually make its way southeast through the province. Saturday will bring sunny skies and light winds with highs in the -10 to -5 °C range. Temperatures will drop back down into the -15 to -10 °C range on Saturday night with light southerly winds as a warm front begins to push across the region.

On Sunday, much of southern Manitoba will see itself back into the air mass we were in before the cold front came through. Temperatures will rebound back to around 0 °C with southerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h. The warmer weather will likely bring mixed skies to the region.

Temperatures will dip back down into the -5 to 0 °C range on Sunday night with clear skies.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead to next week, temperatures will continue trending mild with daytime highs hovering from around or just below 0 °C to as high as the mid-single digits. No significant precipitation is in the forecast.

The mild weather of late has been a pleasant break from a lengthy stretch of cold weather this month; today’s system will bring a brief shot of cooler weather, but the warm-up will arrive before the end of the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -16 °C.

#Winnipeg #MBstorm #awm_windy #awm_benign