Tag: Windy

Sunshine Returns as Temperatures Warm Up

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will finally see the sun for a couple days as the cooler temperatures break across the region and some summer warmth builds back in.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday May 29, 2024
Mild temperatures will spread into southern Manitoba on Wednesday with daytime highs in the low to mid-20s.

A brief note to start: the absence over the past couple weeks wasn’t planned. I caught COVID and it ended up being a rough ride that’s taken a while to recover from. I’m getting back into form now and hope to move back towards posting with more regularity again.

That said, I’m back with good news. After a large cool and wet couple weeks, the weather will finally turn a corner today. A large area of high pressure will descend from the Arctic into Manitoba today, while an upper ridge builds into the Prairies. This will settle the weather and bring sunny skies to the region as northerly winds ease. It will be seasonably cool today with a high in the 15 to 20 °C range and an overnight low near 5 °C.

Warmer weather will arrive tomorrow as the high pushes off to the east and a deep southerly flow develops. A broad area of southerly winds from 30 to 50 km/h will develop across southern Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan, sending highs into the low to mid-20s. As the upper ridge moves over the region on Wednesday night, temperatures will stay mild with lows dipping to the mid-teens.

As the upper ridge moves east, a deep upper trough will follow in its wake, spreading unsettled conditions through Alberta and Saskatchewan. Widespread thunderstorm activity will develop in those areas on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system progresses.

By Thursday, the upper trough will be pushing into Manitoba. Down at the ground, this system will show as a low pressure system over northern Saskatchewan with an occluding frontal wave dropping southwards into the American Plains. The region will see cloudier conditions on Thursday as this disturbance moves through, and a band of [thunder]showers is likely to develop and move across the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should be near-seasonal with a high in the low 20s and an overnight low on Thursday night in the 10 to 15 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

Conditions will settle for the end of the week with highs in the low to mid-20s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The region will likely see a mix of sun and cloud through all three days, but there may be a chance of isolated showers on Friday and Sunday.

Next week looks to start with more of the same! Seasonal temperatures, variable cloudiness, and occasional chances for showers.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

A Taste of Summer Arrives for the Weekend

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Winnipeg will get its first taste of summer this weekend as hot temperatures move into the region and bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday May 11, 2024
Saturday will bring hot weather to southern Manitoba with daytime highs in the upper 20s.

Today will start with lingering cloud and/or showers from a cold front that moved through overnight making its way out of the region. The rest of the morning will be sunny, then skies will become mixed for the afternoon. It won’t be as warm today as yesterday; moderate northwest winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h will limit daytime highs in the area to around 20 °C.

The wind will quickly ease this evening, then temperatures will cool off towards 10 °C tonight. More cloud will build into the area overnight as a warm front approaches from the west. There’s a small chance of scattered showers early Saturday morning as the warm front moves through.

On Saturday, the region will see mixed skies as moderate westerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h move into the region. With the warm front through, temperatures will climb into the 25 to 30 °C range; likely topping out at 26 or 27 °C. Dew points will stay in the mid to upper single digits through the day, sending relative humidity values down to the 20–30% range. The warmth, dry air, and moderate winds will increase the fire risk for the day across the region.

A cold front will slump into the region on Saturday evening and will trigger scattered showers and the risk of thunderstorms. With a dry air mass in place over the region, there will be little energy for any convection to work with. This will mean severe weather is unlikely, but strong and gusty winds are possible with any showers or thunderstorms that develop.

Temperatures will head back down to around 10 °C on Saturday night as skies clear and winds ease.

Sunday will bring more settled conditions as a ridge of high pressure moves across the province. Temperatures will climb to a high in the 15 to 20 °C range with moderate northerly winds. Skies will stay mainly sunny through the day. It will be a cool one on Sunday night as temperatures drop close to 0 °C with a risk of frost.

Long Range Outlook

Similar weather will continue on Monday in the Winnipeg area with partly cloudy skies and a high in the 15 to 20 °C range.

On Tuesday, a low pressure system is forecast to move into Manitoba, bringing several days of unsettled weather to the Winnipeg area. Showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, then conditions should begin to improve heading towards next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +4 °C.

Unsettled Tuesday Gives Way to Pleasant Mid-Week Weather

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After a cloudier Tuesday with a chance of showers, sunny skies will build into southern Manitoba as temperatures climb into the 20s.

RDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday May 8, 2024
While showers are possible across southern Manitoba today, rainfall accumulations will pale compared to what the southwestern Prairies are getting.

Winnipeg finds itself right on the edge of a broad low pressure system that’s bringing notable rainfall to Alberta and parts of southern Saskatchewan today. This system will likely bring showers to parts of southern Manitoba, but the chance of seeing rain will be highest near the United States border. There will be a sharp cut-off to rainfall as the moisture lifting northwards out of the United States meets a sharp northerly flow over southern Manitoba as it wraps westwards into this system.

The result will be a seasonably cool day — Winnipeg should see a high in the upper teens — with mostly cloudy skies across much of southern Manitoba. Rain near the border will ease to a chance of showers for Winnipeg and many other areas of the Trans-Canada Highway corridor. There will be little chance of rain north of this line. It will be another windy day across the region with easterly winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h.

Much of the rain will end this evening, save for bands of showers that could continue closer to the US border overnight. Skies will stay cloudy much of the night as temperatures drop to a low near 10 °C and the winds begin to ease.

On Wednesday, any remaining showers near the border will come to an end. A ridge of high pressure will move into the region from the northwest, breaking up the cloud cover and easing the winds. Temperatures will rebound back into the low 20s, making for a more pleasant day than Tuesday. Skies will clear for Wednesday night with a low in the 5 to 10 °C range.

Thursday will be a great day in the Red River Valley. A ridge of high pressure will bring mainly sunny skies and light winds as temperatures climb to a high in the low 20s. Not much more to say than that. A cold front will begin to drop towards the region on Thursday night as a low pressure complex descends from the north. Winnipeg should have mixed skies overnight as temperatures drop to a low in the 5 to 10 °C range.

Lastly, Friday will bring unsettled conditions back to the region. As the cold front and low pass through the area, they’ll bring mixed skies with a chance of showers and even the risk of a thunderstorm. The system will bring northwesterly winds to the region; this could result in little to no chance of rain for Winnipeg as cooler, stable air from Lake Manitoba drifts towards the city in the flow. It looks likely that showers will be widespread over western Manitoba and the Interlake, though, with coverage diminishing further south. Temperatures will top out in the upper teens and head down to the mid-single digits on Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

The weekend will bring more settled conditions again as an upper ridge builds to the west. Winnipeg will likely see partly cloudy skies with highs in the low 20s. Overnight lows should be mild, dropping to the upper single digits.

The pleasant conditions will likely last into the start of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +3 °C.

Showery Friday Leads to Seasonal Weekend Temperatures

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Unstable conditions across southern Manitoba will support areas of showers that move through the region today. The rain will clear out this evening, leaving behind near-seasonal conditions for the weekend.

24-hour Forecast Precipitation Accumulation valid 12Z Saturday April 27, 2024
High-resolution weather models show rainfall accumulations across much of southern Manitoba over the next 24 hours.

A stalled frontal boundary slowly collapsing over southern Manitoba will spread showers across the region today. Initially, a band of showers west of the Red River Valley will shift into the region through the morning. As the day progresses, another wave of showers will lift northwards out of the United States as a low pressure system moves from Nebraska towards Minnesota. These two areas of showers will merge over south-central and southeast Manitoba by the evening, then slump southeast through the night.

These showers could bring a widespread 10 to 25 mm of rain to many parts of southern Manitoba today, but will quickly weaken heading into the night. WIth the cloud and rain, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the low teens. For those who have found the dry conditions lately irritating, dew points in the mid-single digits will be a welcome relief.

A cold front will push through in the second half of the night, ushering in northerly winds and a cooler air mass. Temperatures will fall to a low in the mid-single digits tonight.

Skies will clear out on Saturday as an area of high pressure moves into southern Manitoba. Temperatures will rebound to a high near 10 °C with northerly winds increasing into the 30–40 km/h range in the morning, then weakening. A ridge of high pressure will bring mainly clear skies on Saturday night with a low dipping to near 0 °C.

On Sunday, another low pressure system will lift towards Minnesota. This will bring increasing cloudiness to southern Manitoba as easterly winds pick up into the 20–30 km/h range. High temperatures will climb back into the low teens on Sunday afternoon.

On Sunday night, more rain will move into southern Manitoba from North Dakota and Minnesota. As the night progresses and temperatures drop, though, the rain may change over to wet snow. Temperatures will drop into the low single digits with light northeast winds on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

A rain/snow mix will shift east out of the province on Monday, leaving behind as much as 5 to 15 mm of a sloppy rain/snow mix. It will be a cold April day on Monday with a high temperature in the mid-single digits.

That system will barely have cleared out on Monday before another disturbance moves into the region on Tuesday. This will bring more rain showers to southern Manitoba as temperatures return to seasonal values.

Heading into the latter half of next week, the weather pattern looks to settle down and the region will shift into a seasonal to seasonably mild pattern.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +1 °C.