Tag: Windy

Weather Settling Through the Weekend in Southern Manitoba

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Seasonal temperatures will return to southern Manitoba as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the region from the west.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 21Z Saturday August 31, 2024
A passing disturbance will usher in moderate northwest winds across southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Warmer temperatures return to Winnipeg and area today as westerly winds continue across the region. Daytime highs will climb back into the mid-20s today as warmer weather bounces back into the region behind the low that moved through yesterday. The wind will be persistent out of the west today near 30 gusting 50 km/h, then ease in the evening. The entire region will see plenty of sunshine today.

The low tonight will dip down into the low teens.

On Saturday, an upper-level disturbance will rotate through the region, bringing mixed skies to the region and a chance of showers. The rain looks to mainly stay north of Winnipeg with decreasing likelihood further south. As the disturbance passes through, it will usher in moderate northwest winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h across the Red River Valley. This will keep daytime highs near-seasonal in the low 20s.

There is a chance with both the tail end of the westerlies today and the northwesterlies on Saturday that smoke may move into the Red River Valley. It’s unclear how thick any of those smoke plumes would be, though it looks more likely that Saturday would bring a more noticeable smoke plume into the region for a time.

The winds will taper off on Saturday evening with clearing skies and an overnight low that dips into the upper single digits.

A broad ridge of high pressure will move across southern Manitoba on Sunday, bringing light winds, clear skies, and seasonal highs in the low 20s.

Long Range Outlook

A southerly flow will redevelop early next week and bring warmer weather back into the region with highs climbing back into the upper 20s. It does not look like there will be an appreciable chance of rain in the first half of the week, but the chance for mid-week thunderstorms can’t be ruled out at this point.

Enjoy the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Friday Rain Eases for Weekend Sunshine

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More rain will move through the Winnipeg area today, but a high pressure system will bring sunshine for the weekend.

RDPS 24 hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Saturday June 29, 2024
A low pressure system crossing the southern Prairies will leave behind a swath of moderate to heavy rainfall accumulations.

A low pressure system crossing the province today will bring unsettled conditions to the Winnipeg area. Rain moved into the region overnight and will continue as widespread rain and showers through the day today. Northeast winds up into the 40 to 50 km/h range will keep temperatures cooler with a high in the upper teens this afternoon.

The rain will begin to break up this evening as this system’s upper-level disturbance curls to the south into North Dakota. Temperatures will head down to a low near 10 °C with easing winds.

Storm-total rainfalls will likely reach 25 to 50 mm in many areas in southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg.

For the weekend, a broad area of high pressure will build across the Prairies. This will bring sunnier skies but cooler temperatures will linger across the region. High temperatures in Winnipeg will reach the upper teens or 20 °C on Saturday, then climb into the low 20s on Sunday. Winds will be northerly at around 20 km/h on Saturday and southerly with similar speeds on Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

Another low pressure system is forecast to eject across the Prairies later Sunday and could bring showers and thunderstorms to southern Manitoba on Sunday night. The wet weather could last into Monday as an area of broad rainfall or several waves of thunderstorms…it’s not clear yet which way the system will develop.

Unsettled conditions with possible showers will linger behind this system through Tuesday. After that, it looks like conditions will settle somewhat, but a low chance of pop-up showers will likely last through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Unsettled Week Leads to Warm Weekend

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Winnipeg will see a few more days of unsettled conditions, but the weather will settle heading into the weekend as temperatures climb into the upper 20s.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday June 12, 2024
A sharp warm front will move into southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

To start things off today, showers that moved in overnight will continue to track east out of the region. There may be a few sunny breaks this morning, but more cloud will spread into the region for midday. An upper low moving into the province this afternoon will destabilize things and bring a chance for a few showers or thundershowers. Temperatures will climb to a high in the low 20s with morning southerlies easing followed by moderate westerlies picking up to 40 gusting 60 km/h in the afternoon.

The cloud cover will break up tonight with temperatures dipping down to around 10 °C as winds ease. There may be a low chance for a few passing showers overnight.

On Wednesday, another low developing over the western Prairies will push a warm front across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid-20s in Winnipeg and other areas along and south of the front, while cloudier and cooler temperatures stick around for areas north. Heading into the afternoon, though, this front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. This feature will bring higher levels of energy to the region to fuel thunderstorms; MLCAPE — mixed-layer CAPE, a measure of energy available for a thunderstorm to use — will climb to around 1,000 J/kg and be coupled with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer wind shear. These values will combine to bring a risk of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms to southern Manitoba on Wednesday afternoon.

This activity will taper off heading into the night, though isolated showers could linger into the early morning hours of Thursday. Temperatures will dip down into the low teens.

On Thursday, an upper low will track across southern Manitoba. It will bring temperatures back down to the low 20s in Winnipeg along with mixed skies and a chance of showers. Skies will clear up on Thursday night with temperatures heading down into the low teens again.

Long Range Outlook

The weather will finally settle down on Friday with sunnier skies as an area of high pressure crosses the province. Warmer air will begin building into the region on Friday with daytime highs climbing back into the mid-20s.

A deep southerly flow will develop for the weekend, ushering more heat and moisture northwards. This will help push temperatures into the mid- to upper-20s with dew points rising into the mid-teens. While not anything that will feel overly humid or sticky, the humidity will be more noticeable than it has for most of the year so far.

Unfortunately, this push of warmer weather looks likely to bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for multiple waves of showers or thunderstorms to push across southern Manitoba.

Cooler, more settled conditions are likely to start next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Seasonably Cool and Unsettled for a Few More Days

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Cool and unsettled weather will continue across southern Manitoba into the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday June 7, 2024
Seasonal daytime highs in the low 20s will be in place across the southern Prairies today.

A slow-moving upper low will continue to impact the region today as it slumps southeast out of Saskatchewan. It will bring breezy westerly winds to the region as highs climb to around 20 °C. Like yesterday, morning sun will give way to afternoon cloud as another weak disturbance ripples through the region. It will bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms to much of southern Manitoba, but the Parkland and Interlake regions will see the most of the activity.

The convective showers will taper off this evening and skies will clear. Temperatures will head down to a low near 10 °C with light winds.

On Saturday, the upper low will move through southern Manitoba. Temperatures will again head to a high near 20 °C but winds will be lighter than they will be today. A sunny start will turn to mixed skies with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Everything will clear out with the lowering evening sun, then temperatures will head to a low in the 5 to 10 °C range.

On Sunday, another sunny start will give way to mixed to cloudy skies as a hang-back trough from the departing upper low swings through. It doesn’t look like there will be much of a chance of showers, but it will be a cool day. Daytime highs in the region will reach into the 15 to 20 °C range with north winds at 20 to 30 km/h. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, skies should clear out for Sunday night as lows head down into the single-digits.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will likely bring a return to seasonal temperatures, but there will be a series of disturbances that bring more wet weather to southern Manitoba:

  • On Monday night, a low pressure system moving into the region from North Dakota could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to southern Manitoba. This system could bring a variable 10 to 40 mm to the region.
  • A disturbance clipping through the region on Wednesday could bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms to central and southern Mantioba.
  • …and again on Thursday, though at this point it looks like any precipitation should stay north of Winnipeg.
  • And then looking irresponsibly far out, another convective system from the United States could move into the region on Saturday into Sunday, bringing moderate rainfall to parts of the province in showers and thunderstorms.

No dry stretches in the forecast for our area anytime soon! As long as the rate of moisture accrual stays manageable, this could be a positive stretch of weather for many. Moisture is available for germinating plants, we’re not being roasted too early in the year, the frequent showers and seasonably cool conditions are helping fire conditions across the province, and the replenishment of groundwater will help areas of the province that have had to resort to water restrictions at times in recent years due to limited water supply.

We’ll be back next week; have a great weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.