A Return to Unsettled Weather

After an all-too-brief respite from the wet conditions of the past week, more chances for rain are on the way as a series of disturbances move through southern Manitoba.

The rain train is heading back to Winnipeg Station today as an occluding frontal wave moves across the southern portion of the province ahead of a deepening low pressure system. As the wave approaches this morning, mostly cloudy skies will be in place and there is a chance that some morning showers will materialize.1 The main action — a mix of showers and thunderstorms — will begin developing near midday over southwestern Manitoba and then quickly expand and move eastwards into the Red River Valley for the afternoon. These will move out of the region by the early evening.

Severe thunderstorms are not expected over a widespread area, however there are just enough energetics and dynamics that an isolated storm or two may become marginally severe.2

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Red River Valley, Interlake and points eastwards today.

Temperatures will climb to a high near 21 or 22°C today with southerly winds of 30-40 km/h gusting up to 60 km/h shifting to westerly after the frontal passage in the afternoon. Expect some clearing in the evening, then variable cloudiness developing towards morning. Temperatures will dip down to a low near 13°C.

Thursday will bring mixed to mostly cloudy skies to Winnipeg and much of the Red River Valley as strong westerly winds of 40-50 km/h build into the region. There will be a chance of showers as rain wraps around on the back side of the passing low pressure system, but much of the guidance suggests that the rain will remain mainly north of the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to a high near 19°C and head towards a low near 12°C under mostly cloudy skies with light rain likely on Thursday night.

An area of light rain/showers will slump southwards through the Interlake into the northern Red River Valley on Thursday night.

Friday will bring cloudy skies with a chance of showers as the overnight activity on Thursday tapers off through the region as an upper-level trough exits. Winds will be out of the northwest at 30-40 km/h with gusts up into the 50-60 km/h range. Skies continue cloudy overnight with a chance of showers as temperatures drop to a low near 10°C.

Long Range

Saturday will remain unsettled with a chance of showers as a weak disturbance ripples through the region from the north and cooler air spills southwards. Conditions finally improve on Sunday, which looks likely to be a fairly sunny day. Temperatures will remain below normal, however, through the weekend and into early next week as Manitoba remains under the influence of a large upper low over Hudson Bay.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

  1. These showers would be elevated, meaning they are formed at higher altitudes and would occur ahead of the incoming front.
  2. In this case, we would expect either wind gusts just over 90 km/h or severe hail in the 20-25mm range.

One More Damp Day, Then May Ends With Nicer Weather

Winnipeg will be under the influence of the storm system that has been bringing showers to southern Manitoba the past couple days for one more yet, but then a return to more pleasant weather will quickly return for the end of May!

More showers are on the way for Winnipeg today as moisture continues to stream southwards through the province on the back-side of the storm system that moved through over the weekend. Breezy northwesterly winds of 30 gusting 50 km/h will make today’s high of just 11°C feel rather dreary. The chance for showers will continue tonight, although it won’t be quite as likely, as temperatures drop to a low near 6°C.

More showers are expected across much of Manitoba today and tonight.

Sunshine will return to Winnipeg on Tuesday as skies clear for the afternoon. There will be a slight chance of showers in the morning as one more little disturbance ripples through, but as skies clear midday temperatures will warm up to a high near 18°C. The wind will continue to be gusty out of the northwest, but the sunshine should make for a much more pleasant afternoon. Skies will completely clear out by evening as winds taper off and Winnipeg heads to a low near 8°C.

Wednesday will be a beautiful day to end the month on; sunny skies with a high near 24°C are on the way with light winds of just 10-20 km/h out of the west. The low will be relatively mild on Wednesday night at around 10°C.

Long Range

The remainder of the work week looks pleasant with continued sunny to mixed skies and highs in the low 20’s. A system will approach Manitoba on Friday, but at the moment guidance suggests it will remain to the south and west. There is general agreement that next week may turn more unsettled once again, so we’ll be keeping an eye on that as the week progresses.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 8°C.

Mixed Bag For Second Half of the Work Week

Winnipeg will dodge the worst of a major storm system that will slam Alberta and portions of Saskatchewan with strong winds and rain; comparatively, things will be quite pleasant!

A major storm is developing over Alberta today that will bring 30-50 mm of rain to the province alongside winds gusting over 100 km/h. This system will spread eastwards and bring significant weather to Saskatchewan later today, but will begin to weaken as it approaches Manitoba overnight. While Winnipeg will be spared from the brunt of this storm, some breezy and unsettled weather is still on the horizon.

First up, today will be a warm and windy day as moderate southerlies develop ahead of the Alberta storm. We should see fairly sunny skies, but winds will pick up out of the south-southeast to 30-40 km/h with gusts to 60 km/h through the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will be near-seasonal with a high of 21°C.

The winds will continue out of the south-southeast tonight at around 30 gusting 50 km/h as cloud cover pushes in late overnight. Temperatures will drop to a low near 11°C.

Thursday will bring cloudy skies to the region as a trowal1 moves through the region. Whether or not Winnipeg will see rain is still somewhat uncertain; support for it definitely tapers off as the feature moves into the Red River Valley, but it will likely be able to sustain a band of rain or showers that will move through mid-day. A second batch of showers is possible in the early evening as the low pressure system moves into the Interlake.

More recent model runs are beginning to show accumulating rainfall in the Red River Valley on Thursday

While the winds will be breezy first thing, they should diminish through the morning as the low approaches. Temperatures will reach a high near 18°C. Temperatures should dip to around 12°C on Thursday night with the cloud cover breaking up.

Friday will bring mixed skies to Winnipeg & the Red River valley with a high near 19°C. It should stay dry, with any showers to our east and north. Winds will be out of the west at 15-25 km/h. It looks like skies should be fairly clear on Friday night as temperatures dip to a low near 9°C.

Long Range

The mixed bag continues this weekend with Saturday likely bringing a fair amount of sunshine and highs near the 20°C mark, but things take a turn on Sunday with highs dropping into the mid-teens as showers slump southwards out of northern Manitoba. With breezy northwesterly winds, it will likely be a relatively unpleasant day. The unsettled weather may persist into Monday, but then the remainder of next week looks pleasant with dry conditions and highs in the low 20’s.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 21°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7°C.

  1. Trowal stands for “trough of warm air aloft” and is the warm air rising around a low pressure system from the occluding frontal wave. 

Weather Settles to Breezy & Seasonably Cool

A ridge of high pressure building into Manitoba will usher in breezy northerly winds for Winnipeg and temperatures sightly below normal for mid-May.

Today will start off with overcast skies as a deck of stratus cloud pushes southwards through the region. The cloudy conditions will be made worse by northerly winds strengthening to 40-50 km/h with gusts to around 60 km/h. Skies will clear out in the afternoon, letting some sunshine through and helping temperatures reach a high near 14°C. Any remaining cloud will clear out tonight as temperatures drop to a low near +2°C with breezy northerly winds of 30-40 km/h.

An area of strong winds will develop over Southern Manitoba & the Northern Plains as air moves out of a high in Saskatchewan into a low heading towards Wisconsin.

Thursday will see the centre of the high pressure system move into southern Manitoba. It will bring sunny skies and cool temperatures with a high near 14°C once again in Winnipeg, but those northerly winds will continue into the afternoon across the Red River Valley at 30 gusting 50 km/h.1 The winds will quickly taper off in the evening as Winnipeg heads to an overnight low near +2°C once again under clear skies.

On Friday, the ridge of high pressure will start departing off to the east, taking the colder air and breezy winds with it. This will allow temperatures to rebound back towards near-seasonal with Winnipeg seeing a daytime high near 18°C. While the day will start of sunny, some cloud cover will build into the region in the afternoon. Friday night will bring mixed to cloudy skies, light winds and a low near 6°C.

Long Range

The weekend is looking fairly pleasant with variable cloudiness and near-seasonal temperatures. There are some indications in the long-range models that the next chance for rain will arrive early next week, but confidence at this point is quite low. Otherwise, the weather will be consistent, if nothing else, over the coming week, with continued near-seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

  1. Southwestern Manitoba will see relief earlier, with winds tapering off to around 15-20 km/h midday Thursday.