Tag: Windy

In Like A Lion

Brad Leave a comment

March will be coming in like a lion as one of the coldest winters in our lifetimes continues on with no end in sight. Some of the coldest temperatures of the season are poised to return as yet another reinforcing blast of Arctic air slumps southwards over the region.

Friday
-19°C / -35°C
Flurries ending midday then clearing and windy.

Saturday
-25°C / -32°C
Sunny & cold.

Sunday
-22°C / -30°C
Sunny.

Flurries Give Way to Deep Freeze

A weak inverted trough moving through Southern Manitoba this morning is spreading flurries across the entire region. The remainder of the snow and cloud will clear out midday as we head to a daytime high of -19°C. Unfortunately, the clearing skies are symptomatic of a brutal blast of Arctic air slumping southwards that will bring us yet another night with overnight lows dipping towards the -35°C range.

850mb temperatures show clearly the next lobe of very cold air slumping into the Southern Prairies.
850mb temperatures show the next lobe of very cold air slumping into the Southern Prairies.

As we move onto the backside of the inverted trough this afternoon, strong northerly winds will move into the region – increasing to 30-40km/h with gusts to 60km/h – and produce localized blowing snow throughout the entire Red River Valley. The situation will resemble the clearing and strong winds we received on Wednesday, however today won’t be as intense as that event.

Winds will taper off this evening alongside our plummeting temperatures as another Arctic ridge of high pressure makes its way into the region. This ridge of high pressure will be driven by a lobe of extremely cold air aloft rotating southwards over the Prairies. Temperatures at 700mb through the core of the cold air is forecast to be in the -35 to -40°C range which puts it as the coldest air in the entirety of the northern hemisphere. This extremely cold air will push our overnight low to around -35°C and combine with winds that will remain around 15km/h to produce extreme wind chill values in the -45 to -50 range.

Sunny and Cold Weekend

Conditions through the rest of the weekend will be benign and cold. Mainly sunny skies will dominate with winds generally between 15-25km/h. Saturday’s daytime high of -25°C will be some 20°C below the seasonal daytime high for this time of year. Sunday will warm to around -21 or -22°C for a daytime high, still well below normal. Overnight lows will dip just below -30°C both nights.

Cold Weather Continues

Unseasonably cold weather will continue through the next week as temperatures very slowly warm. By the end of next week temperatures look to climb back to around -10°C with the chance for a couple of shots of snow through the second half of the week.

The NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
The NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

It does look like this miserable pattern begins to break down next weekend into the following week, allowing more seasonal air to push back into our region. The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is also picking up on the pattern change and finally showing a return to seasonal temperatures.

So be brave; we only need to make it one more week and what is almost surely the last extreme cold snap of the season will be past. This winter has been brutal and will easily sit in the top 3 coldest winters of the last 100 years. Lets all hope that we can shift into a steadier mild pattern through mid-March and start getting rid of this snow.

Wind and Blowing Snow Usher in Arctic Blast

Brad Leave a comment

A deep trough of cold air anchored over Hudson Bay will lock Southern Manitoba into a strong northerly flow that will keep us stuck in abnormally cold weather well into March. This latest blast of cold weather will ensure that the winter of 2013/2014 ends up as the coldest in 35 years[1] and as one of the 15 coldest winters on record[2].

Wednesday
-17°C / -34°C
Chance of morning flurries, then very windy w/blowing snow.

Thursday
-21°C / -26°C
Sunny. Increasing cloud & flurries overnight.

Friday
-21°C / -34°C
Flurries ending midday then clearing.

The Red River Valley is in for a rude return to the deep freeze today as a cold front rips through the Red River Valley bringing very strong winds with it. There’s a very slight chance of some light flurries in this morning’s cloud but it’s likely any precipitation that might develop will remain north or east of the valley. The bigger story is the cold front that will push through around lunch time today.

A deep unstable layer will develop this afternoon in the wake of the cold front.
A deep unstable layer will develop this afternoon in the wake of the cold front.

The passage of the cold front will clear out the skies but bring with it very strong winds, increasing out of the north/northwest to 50km/h. A deep layer of instability, shown on the right in the forecast sounding, will work in two ways:

  1. It will promote gusty winds which will mean in addition to the sustained winds at 40-50km/h, it’s quite likely we’ll see gusts in the 60-70km/h range.
  2. The instability will help “loft” ice crystals and snow which is helpful in generating blowing snow.

Other than making it feel miserably cold, the wind will work together with the relatively dry snowpack in the area to produce blowing snow. I’m unsure of exactly what the snowpack surface’s nature is right now, but I think it’s safe to say that with winds as strong as we’ll see, some blowing snow is inevitable. I don’t foresee a full-scale blizzard or anything of the sort, but localized white-out conditions are certainly possible. If you’re travelling on area highways this afternoon, be aware of the potential for poor driving conditions.

The winds will ease off through the night as an Arctic ridge of high pressure pushes into the region. Temperatures will plummet close to -35°C through the Red River Valley by tomorrow morning as we become entrenched in bitterly cold air once again.

Tomorrow will bring mainly sunny skies, relatively light winds and a high near -21°C. A weak inverted trough will begin pushing into Southern Manitoba late late in the day and will spread cloud and light flurries into Winnipeg and the Red River Valley overnight. Temperatures will drop only to around -25 or -26°C overnight thanks to the cloud cover.

Friday morning will see the light flurry activity tapering off with clearing skies towards midday as the trough pushes off to the east. With the sunshine will come wind once again, with north/northwesterly winds at 30-40km/h picking up through the afternoon. We’ll climb once again to around -21°C as a high

Entrenched

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook.
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook.

Buckle up for the long haul; the cold air will be settling into the region for an extended stay. All long-range outlooks – including the NAEFS above – are forecasting below-normal temperatures into the second week of March. Of note is how far below-normal we’ll be this week. The seasonal high for this time of year is around -6°C, and with forecast highs of -21°C, we’ll be some 15°C below normal.

So keep the long johns out, plug in the car and keep warm!

  1. As mentioned by Rob’s Obs on February 24, 2013.  ↩
  2. Records began in 1872 at St. John’s College  ↩

Winter Returns

Brad Leave a comment

Well, it was nice while it lasted. Get settled in for another long stretch of below-normal temperatures.

Friday
-14°C / -20°C
Windy with local blowing snow; chance of flurries.

Saturday
-14°C / -21°C
Breezy with mixed skies.

Sunday
-17°C / -23°C
Mainly sunny.

Today will be the most unpleasant day of the week with strong northwesterly winds at 40-50km/h making our high of -14°C feel more like the mid-minus-twenties and producing local blowing snow through the Red River Valley. Winnipeg will see mixed skies which will work in tandem the low-level temperature profile to produce a chance of some scattered light flurry activity. The strong winds will persist into the evening and slightly ease overnight as we head to a low of about -20°C.

Saturday will bring mixed skies once again with a high near -14°C. Winds will be lighter than today, but still fairly breezy at 20-30km/h. Skies will clear late in the day as we head to an overnight low near -21°C.

Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and a cooler high of only around -17°C[1]. The winds will be relatively light and we’ll drop down to about -23°C Sunday night.

Winter Returns

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

The immense low pressure system that is pushing northwards through the eastern half of Canada will end up re-establishing a large, cut-off low pressure system over Hudson Bay that will lock the Eastern Prairies into a strong north/northwesterly flow. This will work to entrench an Arctic air mass over the region which will result in below-normal temperatures at least until the end of February.

At this point, it looks like it may not be until the second week of March until the icy grip loses it’s hold over the region, but that’s a long way off and I don’t put a lot of faith in those sorts of forecasts. Safe to say we’re going to see another stretch of relatively dry, cool weather through the end of the month.

  1. This is around 10°C below our seasonal daytime high of -7°C for this time of year.  ↩

The Big Warm-Up Inches Closer

Brad Leave a comment

Southern Manitoba will finally see a reprieve from the icy grip of winter as a major pattern change will allow Pacific air to wash over the Prairies bringing substantially warmer – and more unsettled – weather.

Friday
-17°C / -20°C
Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries this evening & overnight.

Saturday
-14°C / -23°C
Mainly cloudy; chance of morning flurries.

Sunday
-9°C / ⇒ -9°C
Strong winds with blowing snow. Chance of snow late day.

A Couple Cool Days

There will be a chance to dig out after Wednesday night’s storm dumped around 10-15cm through most areas in Southern Manitoba as cool, fairly benign weather settles in over the Red River Valley for the next couple days. Mainly cloudy skies will persist through much of the day today as we climb to a high of only around -17°C.

As shown by the RDPS imagery above, flurries are possible tonight (light blue) over much of Southern Manitoba.
As shown by the RDPS imagery above, flurries are possible tonight (light blue) over much of Southern Manitoba.

A weak disturbance will push through tonight that will push some light snow through the Interlake, but further south in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley there will be just a chance for some flurry activity. The relative weakness of the disturbance combined with quite cool temperatures will ensure that if anything manages to develop it will be quite light and not really accumulate to much at all. We’ll remain cloudy through the night and drop to a low around -20°C.

Saturday will be a fairly quiet day with any possible flurry activity tapering off in the morning and then seeing clouds slowly try to break up through the day. Some clearing should work it’s way in later in the day, but it’s a little uncertain how clear we’ll get. While it will have little bearing on any significant weather, it will dramatically affect our overnight low. If we remain a little cloudier – which I’m thinking is the more likely outcome – we’ll see an overnight low of around -23 or -24°C. If the clouds manage to clear out, even for a couple hours, we’ll get quite a bit colder than that and possibly see another low dipping below -30°C. That marks the last day of cold, though, as a major pattern change begins on Sunday.

Wind and Blowing Snow Usher in Warmer Weather

Sunday will mark the beginning of a major pattern shift that will see the persistent trough that’s been anchored over Northwestern Ontario break down and push off to the east, allowing our upper-level northwesterly flow to be replaced by westerly flow. That sounds like a small shift, but the impact will be dramatic.

Sunday will see increasing cloud through the day as milder air finally pushes in from the west. By evening our temperature will rise to around -10°C and snow will be pushing into Southwestern Manitoba. There will likely be at least some flurry activity, if not some light snow on Sunday night as a warm front pushes across the Red River Valley, but accumulations – at this point – look minimal.

The forecast sounding for Winnipeg on Sunday evening shows very strong low-level winds.
The forecast sounding for Winnipeg on Sunday evening shows very strong low-level winds.

Perhaps the biggest weather impact on Sunday will be the southerly winds that will develop through the Red River Valley ahead of the warm front. A tight pressure gradient will result in strong winds developing fairly early in the day. We’ll likely see winds climb to around 50km/h sustained which will undoubtedly produce localized white-out/blizzard conditions in the Red River Valley. It’s too early to say exactly how bad it’s going to be, but it seems fairly certain that blowing snow is going to be a big issue for anyone planning to travel on Sunday, especially in the evening hours when the strong winds may combine with falling snow.

After we make it through the cold weather’s last stand, a significantly warmer – and more unsettled – week is ahead of us as the westerly flow aloft establishes itself over the Prairies. Daytime highs next week look to sit around -4°C, plus or minus a few degrees, but with the warmer weather will come multiple chances for snow as a train of disturbances set up and track across the Prairies. At this point, however, I’ll gladly take more snow if it means a break from the relentless cold we’ve seen in Winnipeg this winter.