Showers and isolated thunderstorms will push into the Red River Valley tonight, signalling the start of the next major low pressure system to move across the prairies.
A low moving NE out of Eastern Montana has spread rain into much of Southern Saskatchewan through the day today, and is posed to bring more rain into Southern Manitoba. Thunderstorms have initiated along a warm front draped W-E across North Dakota and will move northwards, supported by a 40-50kt southerly 850 jet and large scale ascent with a strong southerly flow aloft overriding the warm front.
Winnipeg should see rain beginning late this evening into the overnight period and through much of the day tomorrow as the precipitation will continue to blossom coming out of the United States. All in all, most of the Red River valley should see 20-30mm of rain by the time the rain lets up on Friday evening, with local amounts possibly reaching 50mm underneath a few of those isolated thunderstorms, should they manage to develop.
This is, unfortunately, not good news to many of the Farmers in the RRV, who have had to battle saturated grounds through much of the latter half of the summer. This is also bad news for the RRV in general, as we continue to have the soil re-saturated as we approach the winter freeze. Should a long stretch of dry weather not occur, this wet fall could lead right back into a wet spring due to overland flooding.