Unsettled Skies Ahead for Winnipeg

Rain will spread over Winnipeg later this morning, kicking off a weekend of unsettled conditions for the region.

More rain is on the way for Winnipeg today as another low pressure system moves through. This system shares bears resemblance to Wednesday’s rain, but will track a bit further north and is a bit stronger. Rain will spread into southern Manitoba from North Dakota through the morning. The main area of rain will exit mid- to late afternoon, but the chance for showers will continue.

Rainfall totals for the region will be higher than seen on Wednesday. The highest amounts will fall close to the U.S. border with 15 to 25 mm by the time the rain tapers off. Rainfall amounts will diminish into the 10 to 15 mm range for Winnipeg and the Trans-Canada Highway corridor, then taper off to just a trace further north in western Manitoba across the Interlake. In Winnipeg, rain will taper off later this afternoon, but a few more showers are possible through the night. Temperatures will climb to around 14°C this morning, but once the rain moves in temperatures will dip to around 10°C. Winds will pick up out of the east into the 20 to 30 km/h range today.

Southern Manitoba will see a good soaking rain today with up to 20-25 mm of rian possible near the American border.
Southern Manitoba will see a good soaking rain today with up to 20-25 mm of rian possible near the American border.

Winds will ease this evening with temperatures dipping to a low near 8°C overnight.

Saturday will bring mixed skies to the city. In the morning, there will likely be plenty of leftover cloud from Friday’s system, but that should break up for the afternoon. Once the sun pokes out, temperatures should manage to climb back up to a high near 19°C. The chance for showers will redevelop in Winnipeg overnight as skies cloud over and temperatures dip to a low near 8°C.

Sunday will bring more cloud and a continued chance for showers as the front stalls over the region. Temperatures should climb into the low teens with northeasterly winds up to around 20 km/h. Skies stay mostly cloudy Sunday night with another chance of showers as another disturbance crosses North Dakota. Temperatures will dip to a low around 5°C.

Long Range Outlook

The sun should reappear to kick off next week with temperatures climbing back into the upper teens and low twenties. A passing low might bring some showers to the region on Tuesday night, but otherwise it looks dry right through the end of the work week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7°C.

Unsettled Conditions Ahead for Winnipeg

Winnipeg will see two chances for rain in the second half of the work week as two disturbances move through the province over the next few days.

The first of two disturbances will impact the region today. A band of showers will push northwards out of the Dakotas this morning, reaching Winnipeg by midday. As the showers push northwards, they will also weaken, making rain more likely near the U.S. border than here in Winnipeg. The chance for showers in Winnipeg will continue through the afternoon, then taper off overnight as the low pushes eastwards. The cloudy skies and breezy northeasterly winds near 30 km/h will keep things rather cool today. Winnipeg should see a high near 13°C. Skies will clear overnight with easing winds and a low near 7°C.

Showers will graze across southern Manitoba on Wednesday.
Showers will graze across southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

Thursday will bring pleasant spring weather back to the region. Winnipeg will see a few cloud sand a high near 22°C. Temperatures will dip to a low near 7°C on Thursday night with increasing cloud.

The next low pressure system to impact the region will push northeastwards into North Dakota on Friday. As it does so, it will spread an area of rain into southern Manitoba. This system looks to be more organized and slightly more intense than today’s system, so it looks likely that it will bring a swath of 5 to 15 mm of rain across much of the region.

Southern Manitoba is forecast to see a more organized rainfall on Saturday.
Southern Manitoba is forecast to see a more organized rainfall on Saturday.

With the cloud and rain moving through, temperatures will once be cool with a high near 15°C. The rain should move out by Friday evening, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies as temperatures dip to a low near 8°C.

Long Range Outlook

The weekend will bring variable cloudiness to the city with another chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front slumps southwards into the region. Highs will likely approach 20°C on Saturday but drop back into the mid-teens for Sunday. After the weekend, it looks like the weather pattern will stabilize a bit, bringing more sunshine and highs near the 20°C for next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7°C.

Warmer Weather Returns to Winnipeg; Showers Possible

Winnipeg will see temperatures return to seasonal values with a chance of showers mid-week.

The Arctic ridge that has been keeping Winnipeg cool will finally begin shifting eastwards to start the week. As a result, the city will finally see a return to near-seasonal temperatures! Today will bring sunny skies to the region with temperatures climbing to a high near 19°C. Warmer temperatures working into the region will also keep overnight lows markedly milder. Winnipeg will drop to around 7°C tonight.

The exit of the Arctic ridge will also have the effect of allow an active storm track over the United States to slowly shift northwards. For Tuesday, this means that easterly winds will pick up to around 30 gusting 50 km/h with a few afternoon clouds. Fortunately, temperatures will return to fully seasonal values with a high near 23°C. Skies will cloud over Tuesday evening with continuing easterly winds near 20 km/h. The cloud and the wind will help keep temperatures mild in Winnipeg with a low near 8 or 9°C.

An area of rain is forecast to push northwards out of the United States early Wednesdya morning.
An area of rain is forecast to push northwards out of the United States early Wednesdya morning.

For Wednesday, a low pressure system lifting northwards through the Dakotas will spread some precipitation northwards into southern Manitoba early in the day. Winnipeg will see a chance of showers through the day, but they will be most likely in the morning. It will be a much cooler day with a high near 12°C and east-northeast winds near 30 km/h. Skies will stay cloudy on Wednesday night with a low near 7°C.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week looks like it will bring a fair amount of cloud cover with another chance for rain developing on Thursday night through Friday. Highs in the mid- to upper-teens will persist through the weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

Wednesday Brings Showers and Thunderstorms to the Red River Valley

Southern Manitoba will see showers and thunderstorms today as a low pressure system moves into the province.

Winnipeg will see increasing cloud today as a low pressure system pushes a warm front into the province. The initial batch of showers with isolated thunderstorms will spread eastwards along a warm front into the Interlake this morning. This area of rain will likely will stay north of the Trans-Canada Highway, but there will be a small chance of scattered (thunder)showers further south through the day. With all the cloud cover over the region, highs will be seasonal despite the push of warmer air. Winnipeg should see a high near 18°C with breezy southerlies near 30 gusting 50 km/h.

The thunderstorm threat will increase this evening as a cold front begins working its way across southern Manitoba. This may end up being one of the first organized severe weather threats of the season for southern Manitoba. Going over the MIST ingredients:

  • Moisture: A southerly fetch ahead of the warm-sector trough will draw moisture northwards. Dew points will rise into the low teens along a narrow strip ahead of the trough.
  • Instability: Marginal mid-level lapes rates will limit instability despite the surge of low-level moisture. MLCAPE values will likely climb into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range by the end of the day.
  • Shear: A 60 kt jet overriding the frontal boundary will produce 50 to 65 kt of 0-6km bulk shear. While high, it’s not unreasonable for thunderstorm development.
  • Trigger: Convection will focus along a cold front as it destabilizes the low-level inversion inhibiting surface-based convection.
Most forecast models show a line of thunderstorms moving through the Red River Valley this evening as the cold front pushes through.

All in all, it looks like there’s a good chance of marginally severe thunderstorms developing on Wednesday evening. Strong shear will support the development of multicellular thunderstorms that may grow upscale along the front into a line of showers and thunderstorms as the evening progresses. These thunderstorms will initiate near the Saskatchewan border and then progress east-southeast across the Red River Valley through the evening. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe with primary threats being large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. The convection will clear out in the evening with breezy northwest winds of 30 gusting 50 km/h picking up behind the cold front. Temperatures will dip to a low near 7°C.

Thursday and Friday will bring variable cloudiness as a developing storm system slowly intensifies. A ridge of high pressure extending from Nunavut southwards through the province will keep things seasonably cool and dry. Tonight’s northwesterly winds will slowly taper off through the day on Thursday, with light winds expected on Friday.

Long Range Outlook

More cloud is on the way for the weekend with temperatures remaining in the mid-teens. Forecast models diverge on Sunday with American models suggesting a broad area of rain lifting northwards into southern Manitoba while the Canadian models keep things further south. With the strength of the ridging over Manitoba, I’m inclined to side with the Canadian models at this point, but we’ll certainly be keeping an eye on things to see how they develop.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 5°C.