Friday Showers Give Way To Seasonal Weekend Temperatures

A passing low will bring cool weather and scattered showers to the region today. It will be a quick turnaround to nicer weather for the weekend with sun returning and warmer temperatures.

RDPS 24-hr Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Saturday September 24, 2022
Many places in southern Manitoba will have a good chance of seeing rain showers on Friday.

Today’s main influence on Winnipeg’s weather will be a slow-moving upper low crossing the region. This system brought rain to southwestern Manitoba overnight, but it will weaken as it pushes eastwards. A few showers will be possible through the morning hours as a leading band of rain weakens heading into the Red River Valley. A bit of a cloudy break is likely, then another chance for scattered showers will develop midday as the upper low itself moves over the region.

Most of the rain will be over by the evening, but a lingering chance for some patchy light rain will continue into the night as the system moves into Ontario. Temperatures will dip to around the 10 °C mark overnight.

With the cloud and rain, temperatures will be quite cool with a high in the low teens. Winds will persist out of the southeast around 20 km/h through the day.

On Saturday, a bit of light rain could be lingering in the morning, but the cloud cover should begin to break up later in the day. Skies will clear later in the afternoon with a northwest wind at 20 to 30 km/h. Temperatures should climb into the upper teens in the afternoon, then head again to a low near 10 °C under clear skies tonight.

On Sunday, the sun will make a full return with just a few clouds through the day. Temperatures should again climb into the upper teens   with a breezy northwest wind. Temperatures will dip into the upper single digits on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

Near or slightly above-seasonal temperatures will continue into the first half of next week. By mid-week, a surge of warmer air will begin pushing across the Prairies. This will bring highs back into the 20s across southern Manitoba with highs in the mid-20s possible by the end of the week. It should stay dry with variable cloudiness through much of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

More Mixed Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

Winnipeg will continue to see a mix of weather this week with near-seasonal temperatures.

RDPS 12-hr Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday September 21, 2022
Some showers will move through southern Manitoba on Tuesday night as cooler air slumps into the region.

Today will be a pleasant late-summer day in Winnipeg with westerly winds picking up to 30 km/h and bringing sunshine back to the area. Temperatures should climb close to the 20 °C mark this afternoon. More cloud will move into the region this evening as a cold front sweeps through. Some more showers are likely tonight as northwest winds usher cooler air into the region, but the most organized precipitation will fall along the western escarpment of the Red River Valley and in the lee of the lakes. In these areas, anywhere from a couple millimetres to potentially over 10 mm is possible. In Winnipeg and much of the Red River Valley itself, though, just a few light showers are likely through the night with little accumulation.

Any remaining showers should taper off on Wednesday morning as a high pressure system pushes into the region. The clouds may linger into the afternoon as brisk northwest winds up into the 30 to 40 km/h range continue. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday with highs only in the mid-teens. The winds will ease off on Wednesday night as skies clear and temperatures head to an overnight low as cold as +1 or +2 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Thursday September 22, 2022
A high pressure system will bring very cool overnight lows to the region on Wednesday night with temperatures close to freezing by Thursday morning in many places.

The high pressure system will bring mainly sunny skies to the region on Thursday. Winds will be light and highs will again sit in the mid-teens. The high will begin shifting off to the east later in the day. As it exits the area, southerly winds will begin to pick up as more cloud moves into the 

Long Range Outlook

Another disturbance moving into the region on Friday will bring cloud and a good chance of rain. Accumulations across the region may vary significantly; Winnipeg could see 2 to 4 mm with increasing amounts southwards. Some cloud and showers may persist into Saturday as temperatures finally warm back to seasonal values. The sun should make a full return on Sunday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 17 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

More Unsettled Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

A continuing series of slow-moving low pressure systems will bring more cloud and showers to southern Manitoba into the weekend.

ECMWF 24-hr Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Saturday September 17, 2022
A slow moving low will spread intensifying showers across southern Manitoba today. Rainfall totals of up to 20–30 mm could be possible.

More showers will persist across southern Manitoba today as a weak low pressure system slowly lifts into the southeastern corner of the province. Scattered showers will blossom across the region this morning as the lift from this low pushes into the region. Rain will likely be sporadic through the morning and get steadier through the afternoon.

The most organized rain will likely move through the Red River Valley later this afternoon through the evening hours. The rain will then taper off late overnight or early Saturday morning. Storm-total rainfall of 10 to 20 mm is likely by Saturday morning. Locally, amounts may vary with some areas seeing a bit less, and others potentially reaching into the 20 to 30 mm range.

There will be a brief reprieve from the rain through Saturday, then another chance of showers will develop over the region on Sunday night. A low pressure system moving out the U.S. towards Lake of the Woods will spread some light rain across the southeast corner of the province with showers spreading to the northwest. A few showers may linger across the Red River Valley into Sunday morning before tapering off. Rainfall amounts with this second system will should be significantly less than today’s system.

These passing systems will keep skies cloudy and temperatures cool over the coming days. Winnipeg will see seasonably cool highs in the mid-teens, but the cloud cover will keep lows mild near the 10 °C mark. Northeast winds will be gradually ease through the day today, followed by variable light lighter winds for Saturday and Sunday.

When the system leaves the region on Sunday, the cloud cover should finally break up, bringing some sun back to the Red River Valley. Highs will rebound back into the low 20s, making for a pleasant afternoon.

Long Range Outlook

More unsettled weather is likely to kick off next week, with more rain possible later Monday. The rest of the week looks to bring variable cloudiness with a chance of showers. Cooler air will build into the region, dropping daytime highs from the low 20s to the low teens over several days.

Longer-range forecasts show the decent into cooler conditions followed by an easing to near-seasonal temperatures. All in all, the general trend over the next couple weeks is an easing of fall conditions into the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.

Cooler and Unsettled Conditions Ahead for Winnipeg

A slow-moving low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures to southern Manitoba over the next few days. Along with cloudy skies, the low will also bring a chance of rain in the second half of the week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday September 13, 2022
A sprawling high pressure system will bring near-seasonal temperatures to southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

Cooler air is already on the way today behind a cold front that passed through overnight. Highs across the region will be considerably lower than yesterday’s 30 °C weather. Temperatures in southern Manitoba will climb into the upper teens today with northerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h. 

Cloud will begin to push into the region tonight as a slow-moving low pressure system pushes towards the Dakotas. Temperatures will dip back below 10 °C tonight as the winds ease and skies cloud over.

Beginning Wednesday, much of southern Manitoba — including Winnipeg — will see mostly cloudy skies that will persist right to the weekend. Temperatures will be very consistent through the rest of the week as well: highs will climb to the mid- to upper-teens and lows should sit in the low teens.

It should stay dry across the region on Wednesday, but conditions will grow more unsettled on Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers are likely across much of the region on Thursday, but may be patchy in coverage and sporadic in nature. Amounts by Thursday evening will be generally low, with most regions seeing jp to 5 to 10 mm of rain.

ECMWF Hi-Res 24-hr Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Friday September 16, 2022
Much of southern Manitoba will see rain on Thursday, however some uncertainty remains for the Trans-Canada Highway corridor for areas around Winnipeg and westwards.

The exceptions will be in western Manitoba and in southeastern Manitoba. In WestMan, 10 to 20 mm is possible due to upslope winds over the Duck Mountains and the Riding Mountains. This will depend on the rain pushing far enough northwards, which some models — like the above ECMWF output — don’t.  In the southeast corner of the province, up to 15 to 25 mm is possible as a more organized area of rain moves through that area. Some of that heavier rain may also fall over the southern Red River Valley, but that’s very uncertain right now.

The showers will ease on Thursday night, leaving just a few lingering showers across the region for Friday.

Winds will pick up out of the east to around 30 gusting 50 km/h on Wednesday, then gradually ease into the 20 to 30 km/h range as it shifts northerly over Thursday and Friday.

Long Range Outlook

The region will see mixed skies through the weekend as another low moves from the Dakotas towards NW Ontario. Highs will nudge towards the 20 °C mark, but some more rain is possible sometime later Saturday into Sunday as the low passes by the region.

Next week should bring near seasonal temperatures and a gradual clearing trend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 7 °C.