Summer Warmth Arrives in Winnipeg This Week

After a bit of an unsettled Tuesday, sunnier skies develop over southern Manitoba with high temperatures climbing into the mid-20s!

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday May 11, 2023
Temperatures will climb into the mid-20s across southern Manitoba on Thursday.

Warmer weather will arrive in Winnipeg today with daytime highs climbing back to around 20 °C. A weakening upper trough over the region will provide instability for mixed skies with some scattered afternoon showers. The odd shower might end up strong enough for a couple lightning strikes, but no notable organized thunderstorm activity is likely. A few clouds will linger overnight with temperatures heading down into the low teens.

The weather over the next few days will be shaped a building upper ridge over the eastern Prairies. This will settle conditions and push warmer weather northwards. With sunny skies on Wednesday and a bit of cloud on Thursday, temperatures will climb into the mid-20s. In addition to the warmth, dew point values will hover close to 10 °C, making for very comfortable conditions.

Overnight lows will continue to dip into the 10–15 °C range at night. On Wednesday night, there will be a small chance of some showers driven by some weak instability aloft that will persist through the night.

Long Range Outlook

Cloudier conditions will move in for Friday and Saturday in southern Manitoba. A potent low pressure system will spread rain into the northern United States, but a strong deformation zone will keep a sharp cut-off to the rain south of the Canada–U.S. border. The cloud will combine with moderate northeasterly winds to send daytime highs a few degrees cooler; Winnipeg will see daytime highs near 20 °C to wrap up the week.

Sunshine will return ton Sunday as this storm system clears. Temperatures will head back into the mid-20s with the heat persisting into next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.

Seasonably Cool Weekend Gives Way to Warmer Weather Next Week

Seasonably cool temperatures will stick around for Winnipeg this weekend — along with some unsettled weather — but a big warm up is on the way for next week.

ECMWF 24-hr. Precipitation Accumulation valid 00Z Sunday April 30, 2023
Showers will drop through Manitoba on Friday night into Saturday.

To wrap up the work week in Winnipeg, any morning fog will burn off as temperatures head to a high in the low teens for the afternoon. The region will see mixed skies today with light north-northwest winds.

The next disturbance to impact the region will begin moving in tonight. Skies will cloud up tonight with showers pushing into the Red River Valley from the northwest by morning. Temperatures will head to a low near 2 or 3 °C tonight.

Saturday will bring mostly cloudy conditions to the region with the chance for some sunny breaks in the afternoon. The most organized shower activity will move through the region in the morning, but much of the activity may end keeping west of Winnipeg. Temperatures will climb to a high near 10 °C as northerly winds pick up to around 20 km/h. A few pop-up showers will be possible in the afternoon in the unstable northerly flow that develops.

Skies will clear out on Saturday night with a northerly breeze. Temperatures will dip to a low again in the low single digits.

Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies to the region with a high in the low teens. It will be a breezier day with north winds picking up as high as 30 gusting 50 km/h. It’ll be a cool night on Sunday night with a low near the freezing mark.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into next week, a major pattern change will bring a substantial change to the weather across Manitoba. The cool temperatures of the last while have largely been due to a persistent upper-level vortex over Hudson Bay. Heading into next week, there’s high confidence that feature will finally collapse southwards into Ontario, then shunt eastwards and out of the region.

The upper-level pattern will then begin to reorganize itself over a few days, with the most prominent trend being a building upper ridge over western North America. As a result, by the end of the week, a well-formed upper ridge is forecast over much of the western United States, the Canadian Prairies, and central Arctic.

ECMWF 500mb Heights and Height Anomaly Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday May 3, 2023
A strengthening upper ridge (red shading) will build into western Canada and the Arctic by the middle of next week.

The end result of that will be that next week will see relatively little by way of precipitation and substantially warming temperatures. Daytime highs in southern Manitoba will likely climb into the 20s by Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by highs in the 15 to 25 °C range through the rest of the week.

So after one more weekend on the cool side of seasonal, some spring/early-summer warmth will arrive next week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +2 °C.

Temperatures Creep Higher as Unsettled Conditions Develop

Winnipeg’s temperatures will warm towards more seasonal values this week, but a few passing disturbances will bring cloudier conditions with a chance of rain.

ECMWF 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation valid 12Z Thursday April 27, 2023
An occluding low pressure system will bring a swath of rain to southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

The weather will turn more spring-like in Winnipeg this week as the northerly flow in place over the region breaks ahead of approaching Pacific disturbances. Daytime highs will immediately respond to this change with highs climbing up into the low teens today. The return to warmer weather will occur under sunny skies and light winds.

The unsettled conditions will arrive mid-week. Skies will cloud over tonight ahead of an approaching low as temperatures dip into the low single digits. On Wednesday, breezy southerly winds will develop, followed by a band of rain that pushes across the Red River Valley. Driven by an occluding low pressure system, the region could see as much as 5 to 10 mm of rain as it moves through. Temperatures will climb to a high near 10°C before cooling off once the rain begins. The rain will taper off by evening, but lingering showers will be possible through the night. The winds will ease Wednesday evening followed by temperatures down into the low single digits.

Cloudier conditions will linger for Thursday as another disturbance drops through the Prairies, but the organized rain with that system will stay further west. Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will see a diminishing chance of showers as the day wears on. Temperatures will again climb to a high near 10 °C with a high north wind picking up through the day.

Long Range Outlook

Some sun will begin to poke out from behind the clouds on Friday with light north winds continuing. Another passing disturbance could bring some flurries late Friday night changing to rain showers on Saturday morning. Daytime highs will hover around 10 °C right through the weekend with lows in the 0 to 5 °C range.

Next week should bring sunnier skies and temperatures finally beginning to climb back to seasonal highs in the mid-teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +1 °C.

Mild Friday, Then Colorado Low Looms

It will be another relatively mild day in Winnipeg today, but a developing Colorado Low will begin to impact the region this weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday October 23, 2022
A potent Colorado Low system will develop over the course of the weekend and begin moving into the province later on Sunday.

A sunny start to the day will give way to increasing cloud this afternoon in Winnipeg today. Temperatures will stay mild with a high in the low to mid-teens and westerly winds around 20 km/h.

As cloud continues to thicken up this evening, it will mark the low arrival of a developing Colorado Low. With a low down to the mid-single digits, rain showers will begin to blossom across southern Manitoba late Friday night. Driven by a warm front lifting through North Dakota, these showers will push northeast through Saturday morning. Rainfall accumulations won’t be too significant at just a couple millimetres as the showers taper off in the afternoon.

Temperatures on Saturday will climb into the low teens with a wind picking up out of the northeast into the 15 to 25 km/h range. Temperatures will head down to a low in the mid-single digits again on Saturday night under cloudy skies.

On Sunday, skies will stay cloudy as a warm front surges northwards across the American Plains. By late afternoon, this front will arc from the Dakotas across northern Minnesota and Lake Superior. This will strengthen the northeasterly winds in southern Manitoba into the 30 to 40 km/h range for the day. It will also help to support a band of precipitation stretching from southeastern Saskatchewan across Western Manitoba. This will fall as a mix of rain and snow over Saskatchewan, trending toward snow as Sunday evening wears on and the precipitation moves into Manitoba.

On Sunday night, the brunt of this system will begin to impact Manitoba . Temperatures will remain warm in the Red River Valley as the low lifts northwards; Winnipeg will only dip into the mid- to upper single digits overnight. Rain will likely develop across the region Sunday night, but west of Brandon the precipitation will transition to snow. Here in the Red River Valley, rain could be heavy at times depending on how the system develops.

Long Range Outlook

Rain or drizzle will continue across the Red River Valley on Monday as the low centre passes through the province. Once the low is by, strong northwest winds will develop and usher in much cooler temperatures. Some snow may mix into the precipitation later in the day. Temperatures will dip back below freezing on Monday night. A bit of rain or snow is also possible on Tuesday before things finally settle down.

Much cooler conditions are in store for the rest of the week with daytime highs only reaching the mid-single digits. It will likely stay on the cloudier side, so overnight lows won’t be too bad, dipping just a couple degrees below zero or so. If we end up with a clear night next week, we could see overnight lows dip back into the -5 to -10 °C range.

So…enjoy the weather out there today; it’ll only get less pleasant as the weekend progresses!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 8 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -2 °C.