Tag: Rain

Cooler Weather Brings Wildfire Smoke and Showers

Brad Leave a comment

Copious amounts of wildfire smoke has descended into southern Manitoba behind a cold front that slumped through the region overnight. Showers and thunderstorms moving through the region will do little to improve conditions today, and the smokey weather will stick around for much of the weekend.

ECMWF 24-hour Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Friday July 12, 2025
Showers will move through many parts of southern Manitoba on Friday or Friday night.

Smokier conditions moved into the Red River Valley overnight behind the cold front that slumped through the region. This has resulted in degraded to poor air quality throughout the region. Exact air quality values will vary over the next few days, but smoke will be widespread across the region through the weekend. There is a chance for a reprieve on Sunday morning, but would be short-lived as smoke from the Saskatchewan wildfires would move into the region in the afternoon. Special air quality statements and/or air quality warnings will be possible throughout the weekend.

In other weather, a shortwave tracking into Manitoba will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. There doesn’t look to be an organized severe weather threat, but if much of the activity manages to hold off until later in the day, a marginally severe thunderstorm may be possible. If showers and thunderstorms develop earlier in the day and are more widespread, the threat of severe weather will be diminished greatly.

Temperatures will be much cooler today; not only will today’s daytime high in the low 20s be nearly 10 °C cooler than yesterday, the humidity will be much lower with comfortable dew point values in the low teens. Winds will be out of the northwest at 20 to 30 km/h today.

The chance of showers will taper off overnight as the cloud cover breaks up and the winds shift more westerly. Temperatures will dip to a low in the mid-teens.

For the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will slide through the province and bring settling conditions this weekend. The Winnipeg area should see partly cloudy skies this weekend as daytime highs climb to seasonably mild values in the mid- to upper-20s. With comfortable humidity levels persisting through the weekend, overnight lows will dip down towards the mid-teens. Those west-northwest winds will continue through the weekend.

Long Range Outlook

Another low will bring unsettled weather to the region to start next week. After a couple days of cloudier conditions with a chance of rain, conditions will settle by mid-week and the region should see partly cloudy skies and near-seasonal temperatures the rest of the week.

Winds will be predominantly northerly to start next week, which will likely mean plenty of smoke throughout the region. By the second half of the week, a southerly flow is forecast to develop which should help gradually clear the smoke out of the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

A Very May Long Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

After a brief heat wave that brought deadly fires to parts of southeast Manitoba, things will shift to the polar opposite for the long weekend.

ECMWF 24-hour Precipitation Accumulation valid 12Z Saturday May 17, 2025
A swath of accumulating rain will fall across southern Manitoba on Friday with a further 5 to 20 mm across the region.

There’s no beating around the bush, it’ll be a miserable day in Winnipeg today. As a potent low pressure system meanders through North Dakota and Minnesota, it will continue to wrap rain into the province while driving a cold front south. It will be a rainy day in Winnipeg today with strong northerly winds developing. Temperatures will fall into the mid-single digits this afternoon as those winds gust as high as 70 to 80 km/h.

Rainfall totals will vary across the Red River Valley, but accumulations will broadly fall into the 10 to 20 mm range with localized pockets of higher and lower accumulations. The main swath of rain will stretch from east of the south basin of Lake Winnipeg southwest through the Red River Valley. The rain will gradually taper off on Friday night as temperatures head down to a low near +2 or +3 °C.

Saturday will be a cold May day with northerly winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h and a high temperature that struggles to climb into the 5 to 10 °C range. Skies will stay cloudy through the day. Temperatures will drop into the 0 to 5 °C range on Saturday night under cloudy skies. A ridge of high pressure building into the region will finally bring an end to those moderate northerly winds.

Sunday will bring more cloud cover to the region, but sunshine may poke through later in the day. Temperatures will climb to around 10 °C with east winds around 20 km/h. Skies will clear out for Sunday night with a low in the 0 to 5 °C range.

A Note on Smoke

Over the coming days (and weeks?) wildfire smoke will be an occasional concern for the region. Multiple large fires are now burning in southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario, and their smoke plumes will move towards the region in any easterly or northeasterly wind. That said, it will be complicated to forecast for as the relative closeness of the fires means that depending on the conditions the plumes may be widespread in coverage or they may be narrow bands that stretch downwind of the fire.

Complicating things more will be the need to wait and see how the fires respond to this weekend’s rain and cooler temperatures.

All that to say that wildfire smoke may be a concern at times in the weeks ahead, if not for much of the summer. Moreover, these fires are ripping through cottage country, likely impacting someone you know.

The best thing that could happen is a stretch of cooler weather with frequent rain; we’ll see what happens in the weeks ahead.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the start of next week, it looks like temperatures will gradually climb back towards seasonal values with mainly sunny skies. At this point it doesn’t look like there will be much chance for precipitation through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

Scorching Heat to Give Way to Unsettled and Much Cooler Weather

Brad Leave a comment

The scorching heat and dangerous fire conditions will persist in Winnipeg and the Red River Valley for another day before the heat shifts east and showers and thunderstorms move into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday May 13, 2025
Tuesday will bring another day of scorching heat and dangerous fire conditions in southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg will be off to a hot start today with temperatures in the low 20s that quickly climb to 30 °C by lunch. Southerly winds will pick back up to 40 gusting 60 km/h as temperatures continue to climb to a high in the mid-30s. Relative humidity will again drop below 20% today, which coupled with the heat and moderate winds will pose another risky fire weather day for the region. There will be a slight chance of an isolated evening shower or thunderstorm, but nothing substantial is expected for the region. Temperatures will head to a low in the mid-teens tonight with winds shifting to the north and easing.

On Wednesday, an upper low will shift from Idaho into southern Saskatchewan. As it pushes into the region, it will support a broad area of showers and thunderstorms that move from southeast Saskatchewan into western Manitoba and across the Interlake region. This broad area of cloud and rain showers will intensify the temperature change across a warm front draped southwest-northeast across southern Manitoba. Over a short distance, temperatures will change from around 30 °C on the warm side of the front to the upper teens on the cold side of the front. Right now, Winnipeg is forecast to sit barely on the cold side of the front with a high in the mid-20s, but small changes in the position of that front may change the daytime high by 5 °C or more.

Showers and thunderstorms will blossom across Manitoba on Wednesday night, but much of the activity looks to move through west and north of the Red River Valley. Temperatures in Winnipeg should dip down into the mid-teens on Wednesday night with cloud cover beginning to move into the area.

On Thursday, the unsettled weather will shift east into the Red River Valley as a pair of shortwaves lift north out of the Dakotas towards southern Manitoba. Temperatures will peak in the low 20s as more cloud and scattered showers and/or thunderstorms push through the region. with moderate northwest winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h developing through the day.

On Thursday night, unsettled showery conditions will likely transition to periods of rain as temperatures continue to cool and a much broader, more organized low pressure system develops. Temperatures will dip down into the mid-single digits overnight with moderate northwesterlies continuing.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into Friday, periods of rain will continue through the day as more cold air pushes into the region. Temperatures will hold steady or even fall through the day, potentially dropping as low as +1 or +2 °C. Heading into Friday night, temperatures may drop to freezing, and precipitation over the region could turn into a wintery mix of rain and/or snow with a risk of freezing rain. Those northwest winds will continue through the night.

Heading into the weekend, the precipitation looks to gradually taper off on Saturday with a high in the low single digits and easing winds. Temperatures may dip below freezing on Saturday night. Cloudy skies will likely stick around into Sunday with a warmer high in the 5 to 10 °C range.

Temperatures will slowly trend towards seasonal values this week, but another disturbance mid-week may bring more rain to the region and keep temperatures seasonably cool through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

Pleasant Weekend Weather Arrives

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures in Winnipeg will climb into the upper teens as the weather turns sunny and warm this weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday April 26, 2025
Mild temperatures will spread across the Prairies this weekend.

Beautiful spring weather will move into southern Manitoba this weekend. A combination of a weak upper ridge sliding into the southern Prairies along with a low pressure system crossing the northern Prairies will push warmer temperatures across the Prairies.

Under sunny skies, temperatures in southern Manitoba will climb into the 15 to 20 °C range this afternoon. An area of high pressure sitting right over southern Manitoba will keep winds light, making for a beautiful afternoon outside. Temperatures will dip down close to the freezing mark tonight; winds will shift out of the south as the area of high pressure drifts southeast of the province through the night.

Saturday will bring more sunshine to the region as temperatures climb into the upper teens. Southerly winds will be more prominent, picking up into the 30 to 40 km/h range. Those winds will ease on Saturday night as cloud cover pushes into the region.

The next disturbance to impact the region will be taking shape over the western United States on Sunday. This will keep skies cloudy over the region through the day and bring a small chance of a rain shower or two to the region. Southerly winds will continue through the day at 20 to 30 km/h as temperatures climb into the mid-teens.

The low pressure system south of the border will take shape on Sunday night as it pushes into the Dakotas. North of its track, showers and/or thunderstorms will spread through the northern United States. North of the border in Manitoba, the chance for rain showers will pick up through the night as temperatures dip into the upper single digits.

Long Range Outlook

Much of the rain with this system is expected to track south of the border, while areas further north see a decreasing chance of precipitation. On Monday, a cold front will sweep south through the region, bringing moderate northerly winds and cooler temperatures. In Winnipeg, temperatures will likely hover near 10 °C with cloudy skies giving way to clearing late in the day.

The rest of the week will bring cool to seasonable temperatures with sunshine giving way to more cloud and another chance of showers. Cooler, sunnier conditions are possible to end next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +1 °C.