Unsettled Days Ahead

Winnipeg will see unsettled days ahead as several disturbances move through the region.

RDPS 24hr. Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday May 18, 2022
The RDPS forecast model shows a notable swath of rainfall accumulation from Tuesday afternoon across several water-logged regions of Manitoba.

A slow-moving low pressure system moving across the region will bring cloudier, showery weather to southern Manitoba over the next couple days. Showery conditions will develop this morning over southwestern Manitoba and spread into the Red River Valley by late morning. The rain will be spotty through midday, but will likely become a bit more organized through the afternoon. The showers will taper off this evening, but that won’t be the end of things.

Today’s showers will come from a leading impulse, while tomorrow will bring the actual low pressure system through the region. More showers will push into the Red River Valley early Wednesday morning. The region will see a chance of showers or thunderstorms through Wednesday morning. The instability will ease through the afternoon, leaving just a few lingering showers.

This system will bring as much as 5–10 mm of rain through most of the Red River Valley, but the rain will be more organized to the north. From the Parkland area eastwards across the Interlake, 10–25 mm of rain will fall over the next couple days.

Another low pressure system will move into the region on Thursday, associated with a deep upper trough sinking into the Prairies from the north. It will bring more rain to the region, spreading from western Manitoba in the morning to the Red River Valley in the afternoon. This system could bring a wide swath of 10–25 mm of rain to much of southern Manitoba.

GDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Saturday May 21, 2022
Most forecasts show another 5–20 mm of rain across much of southern Manitoba with the system moving through on Thursday into Friday.

Northerly winds will strengthen over the region on Friday in the wake of Thursday’s low. While it will help clear things out, a few afternoon pop-up showers will be possible.

This unsettled patter will be marked by seasonably cool temperatures. The Winnipeg area will reach a high in the mid-teens today, then drop into the low teens for Wednesday and Thursday. Both Thursday and Friday will bring highs near 10 °C. Overnight lows will gradually drop into the low single digits as the week progresses.

Long Range Outlook

Conditions should stabilize on the weekend, with a return of seasonal temperatures by Monday. The next chance of rain looks to be on Tuesday night when another upper disturbance pushes across the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.

Cooler, Drier Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

After a windy day today, conditions will settle down with a stretch of cooler and drier weather ahead.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday May 14, 2022
Cooler conditions will settle into the eastern Prairies in the wake of Friday’s passing low pressure system.

With the overnight rain now well to the north, the weather in Winnipeg today will be marked by the passage of a strong low pressure system to the west. As it lifts northwards, southerly winds will strengthen over the Red River Valley. Most areas will see winds as high as 50–60 km/h this afternoon with gusts up to 80 km/h possible. Skies will stay mostly cloudy through the morning, with more breaks in the cloud developing this afternoon. Conditions should be drier though, with just a chance of some scattered afternoon showers. Temperatures will hover in the low teens through the day today.

The low will push off into northern Manitoba tonight, bringing a bit of clearing into the region as the winds ease to around 30 gusting 50 km/h. Temperatures will dip down to the upper single digits. Some more cloud will push back into the region later on Saturday as an upper-level disturbance skirts along the border. This will also bring a few showers to the region that taper off in the evening. It will be another breezy day with southwesterly winds of 30–40 km/h.

Temperatures will be cool on Saturday and for several days after that. A northwesterly flow will usher in a high pressure system from the Arctic over the next few days. Daytime highs will be well below seasonal, particularly on Sunday and Monday. Daytime highs will struggle to climb much higher than 10 °C on either of those days. Overnight lows will also dip into the low single digits, with even a chance that we might dip below freezing on Monday night. The upside to the cooler conditions is that it will also bring drier weather. No significant rain is in the forecast for the next several days.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will begin to creep back towards seasonal values in Winnipeg towards the middle of next week. Showers will be possible through the second half of the week, but at this point it doesn’t look like they’ll produce very significant amounts of rain for the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

More Unsettled Weather Ahead For Winnipeg

Southern Manitoba will see a mix of weather this week with more rain on Thursday.

NAM 24hr. Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 12Z Friday May 13, 2022
Southern Manitoba will see another soaking on Thursday with a widespread 15–30 mm of rain across many areas and some locally higher accumulations.

The region will get a bit of a chance to dry out today, a welcome change after the 15–25 mm of rain seen across most of the region yesterday. Sunnier skies will send highs near 20 °C, but it will be windy this afternoon. Southwest winds will pick up into the 40–50 km/h range this afternoon.

The winds will taper off this evening as a ridge moves across the region. Lows will dip into the upper single digits. More cloud will push into the region early Wednesday morning as a push of warmer air begins moving in aloft from the Dakotas.

Wednesday will bring cloudy skies to the region with a chance of showers a warm front slowly continues northwards towards southern Manitoba. Temperatures should climb into the upper teens with northeast winds picking up to 20–30 km/h through the afternoon. A few sunny breaks might materialize later in the day, but skies will cloud back over in the evening.

The next storm system to impact the region will begin its approach on Thursday night. It will spread showers and thunderstorms into the Dakotas as it moves northwards, reaching the Manitoba border by Thursday morning. A broad area of rain will move through the region on Thursday, bringing another 15–30 mm of rain to the Red River Valley. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible and could result in locally higher rainfall accumulations. A more organized thunderstorm threat will develop late in the day, but will highly likely be for southeastern Manitoba into MN/ND. The rain will taper off by Thursday evening with just a few lingering showers hanging around until Friday morning. Temperatures will sit in the mid-teens on Thursday with breezy northeast winds.

Some sunshine will poke through later on Friday with temperatures climbing back towards the 20 °C mark. Moderate southwesterlies will develop through the day, climbing into the 40–50 km/h range.

Long Range Outlook

Cooler temperatures will build into the region for the weekend in the wake of this next storm system. Highs will fall into the 10–15 °C range with mixed skies over the weekend. Warmer weather will begin building back into the region near the middle of next week. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like any frost is in the forecast; overnight lows should drop only to the mid-single digits.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.

Mild Spring Conditions Continue; Windy with Showers Possible This Weekend

Temperatures will stay mild in Winnipeg through the weekend, but sunshine will give way to more chances for showers.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday May 7, 2022
Summer-like warmth will spread through southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Warmer weather will continue to push into the Red River Valley over the coming days. Daytime highs will stay in teh 20s, reaching close to the mid-20s on Saturday. This push of warmer weather is thanks to a stubborn low pressure system over the northern Prairies. It will support a southerly flow over the southeastern Prairies, drawing a consistent stream of milder air northwards. With that, though, will also come several disturbances that will also move north in the flow.

After a plenty of sunshine day today, a broken line of showers will push across the Red River Valley. Supported only by a weakening trowal, the showers won’t likely amount to much. Skies will clear out overnight as temperatures dip into the low teens.

Saturday will be a slightly more interesting weather day across the region. Off to a sunny start, the day will warm up quickly. Winnipeg should reach 20 °C by noon, and climb close to 25 °C in the afternoon. Of note will be that it will become quite windy in the afternoon with strong southerly winds of 50–60 km/h. This will be particularly concerning as the winds will generate significant wave action on the flood waters through the valley. This will produce stress on flooded roads and flood barriers in place; consult local EMOs on whether you might need to take any additional action to reinforce any personal flood protection structures.

Later in the day, cloud will push into the region as a low pressure system lifts from eastern Montana into western Manitoba. This low will support an area of rain that moves through southeast Saskatchewan into western Manitoba through the day.

For our region, showers will likely develop late in the day as a cold front starts pushing eastwards towards the Red River Valley. By evening, the forcing of the cold front will combine with a strengthening low-level jet, triggering a line of showers and thunderstorms. The storm environment is even relatively supportive for this time of year. As long as the forecasted moisture advection from the American Plains is able to materialize, the storms will have a moderate amount of energy to work with and ample wind shear to organize it.

The storms will likely trigger close to the Saskatchewan border, then move east-southeast. Some of these storms may be severe with the potential for damaging hail and strong wind gusts. As the line approaches the Red River Valley, it will dig into the low-level jet, developing southwards. As a result, the storms in Manitoba will weaken as they head into the Red River Valley, making it more likely that our area sees some collapsing showers or weak thundershowers, although stronger storms could linger closer to the U.S. border.

3km NAM Simulated RADAR Reflectivity Forecast valid 01Z Sunday May 8, 2022
Thunderstorms are likely over southwestern Manitoba on Saturday afternoon, pushing towards the Red River Vally into the evening hours.

Temperatures will drop down to around 10 °C on Saturday night. Showers will be possible through the night.

On Sunday, the region could see some morning showers but its highly dependent on the evolution of this system. The rest of the day will bring mixed skies to the region as we sit on the edge of a system passing to the east. Temperatures will still be mild with highs in the upper teens.

Long Range Outlook

On Monday, another disturbance will move into the province bringing more showers and a risk of thunderstorms to the region. After that, a couple nice days are in store, then another chance of showers or thunderstorms will develop later in the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 17 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 3 °C.