A series of slow-moving low pressure systems will move through southern Manitoba this week, bringing cloudy, cool and unsettled conditions to the region.
The first disturbance this week will move into the Dakotas today, spreading cloud cover and rain northwards. Winnipeg may see a bit of sun this morning, but skies will cloud over relatively quickly today. Rain will begin spreading north through the Red River Valley in the afternoon, reaching Winnipeg by the evening. Temperatures won’t be too bad with a high near 17°C, but that will likely be earlier in the day before the clouds thicken up. Winds will be noticeable today, though, picking up out of the east into the 30 gusting 50 km/h range.
The rain will persist through the night as winds gradually turn northeast and weaken. Rainfall amounts may be variable, generally in the 10 to 20 mm range. If a few embedded lines of convection develop, then localized amounts could increase into the 20 to 30 mm range. The only potential trouble spot in the forecast is the chance of a slight break in the rain developing over the Red River Valley between hang-back rain over southwest Manitoba and the low-supported rain spreading northeast. If this happens, a swath of the region will see little rain, but we’ll just have to watch as things evolve through the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near 12°C.
The rain will ease early Tuesday morning, but chances for a few patches of light rain or drizzle will persist. Skies will stay cloudy with northerly winds of 15 to 20 km/h persisting through the day; with a high of just 14°C it will certainly feel fall-like out there. The chance for precipitation will taper off for the night, leaving Winnipeg with cloudy skies and a low near 9°C.
Wednesday will bring more cloud to the region with winds picking up out of the east to around 20 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high near 16°C and despite the cloud it should stay dry through the day. The chance of rain will increase on Wednesday night as the next disturbance begins lifting towards the region from Wyoming. Temperatures will dip to a low near 11°C on Wednesday night.
Long Range Outlook
Thursday will bring more rain to Southern Manitoba as more energetic system pushes towards the region. As a result, there may be a few embedded thunderstorms move through. The region may see more rain with this system as well, possibly in the 20 to 40 mm range. There’s a good chance that some light showers will persist into Friday, then sunshine and near-seasonal temperatures return for the weekend.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7°C.