Weather Forecasts, Facts and News for Winnipeg & Southern Manitoba
Author: Brad
Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.
Calm weather is expected in Winnipeg and across the Red River Valley over the next few days, a welcome reprieve from the severe thunderstorm activity that moved through the region on Wednesday.
Today will be an improvement over the cool and blustery conditions that moved through the Red River Valley yesterday. While skies will be mixed remain mixed, temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than Thursday with a high temperature near 23°C. Gusty winds will remain out of the northwest at 20-30 km/h.
Temperatures will dip down to around 13°C tonight with partly cloudy skies.
Saturday will be a very pleasant day as a ridge of high pressure moves over the province. Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will see daytime highs near 25°C under mainly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds. Temperatures will dip down to around 13°C once again on Saturday night under clear skies.
A ridge of high pressure will bring sunshine to Southern Manitoba on Saturday.
Sunday will bring warmer weather back to the Red River Valley as the ridge moves off to the east, winds switch around to the south, and a warm front begins lifting northwards out of the United States. As the warm front moves into the province through the day, skies will become gradually mixed with temperatures climbing into the upper 20s. Fortunately, despite the southerly flow, it appears that the humidity will be kept at bay and the weekend will be ending with warm, comfortable conditions instead of another muggy mess.
Long Range
Early indications are that our nice dry weather will come to an end early next week as yet another low pressure system tracks out of the northern United States and into the southeastern Prairies. This system will spread another batch of thunderstorm activity across southern Manitoba with the main event on Monday night into Tuesday.
The GDPS is forecasting a swath of 30-50mm across Southern Manitoba on Monday night through Tuesday.
Initial indications are that severe weather may also be possible with this system as moderate CAPE values1 combine with 35-45 kt of bulk shear, which in this timeframe certainly indicates the potential for organized thunderstorms with, at a minimum, the potential for large hail. Ultimately we’ll simply have to wait until later in the weekend for clarifying details on what this system early next week will entail.
It’s getting to be a tiring summer to be the weather messenger, with every tiny stretch of nice weather being cut short by the looming news of more thunderstorms. It’s been an incredibly active summer over Southern Manitoba, and one can only hope that we transition into a pattern of more stable, drier weather in the coming weeks.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
CAPE is a measure of the energy available to a thunderstorm. ↩
A low pressure system tracking eastwards through Saskatchewan will bring a potent severe thunderstorm threat to Southern Manitoba today. The development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging hail and winds, torrential downpours, and tornadoes is expected this afternoon over portions of southwestern Manitoba. These thunderstorms will then track eastwards across the Red River Valley & the southeastern corner of the province through the evening hours.
Hot and humid weather will return to Winnipeg today as temperatures soar to the 30°C mark while dewpoint temperatures climb towards the 20°C mark in the Red River Valley courtesy a gusty southeasterly wind of 30-40 km/h that will develop midday. This hot and humid weather will serve as the pressure cooker for severe thunderstorm development as a low pressure system tracks into the province this afternoon.
Through the morning hours, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southwestern and south-central portions of the province, but they aren’t expected to be particularly notable. By early to mid-afternoon, the “main event” will start with thunderstorms developing along a north-south line west of the Red River Valley. Through the late afternoon into the evening, these thunderstorms will move eastwards across the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba.
These thunderstorms will be capable of producing large and damaging hail, dangerous straight-line winds exceeding 100 km/h, and torrential downpours capable of flash flooding. In the early hours of the system, over portions of southwestern Manitoba and possibly extending into the western Red River Valley, these thunderstorms will also be capable of producing a tornado.
Moisture: Dewpoints climbing into the 20-23°C range will combine with moderate vertical extent as an organized moisture feed advects into the province from the Dakotas.
Instability: Significant moisture coupled with moderate mid-level lapse rates to produce MLCAPE values 2000-3000 J/kg. MUCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg will continue overnight into northwestern Ontario.
Shear: Significant speed and directional shear will be in place over the province with textbook-quality looping hodographs present under 50-60 kt of 0-6km bulk shear will practically guarantee supercell development upon storm initiation and will be completely supportive of upscale growth into the overnight period.
Trigger: A frontal wave passing by the province and associated low pressure system and trough will provide ample lift and convergence to trigger thunderstorm development.
As storms develop, they will very quickly begin rotating and mature into supercell thunderstorms. These storms will very quickly develop hail and severe wind threats. Low lifting condensation levels coupled with the strongly veering hodographs and notable low-level CAPE also suggests a tornado threat for the first few hours of the storm life-cycle. This will most likely be constrained in an area from Brandon to Winnipeg along the Trans-Canada Highway and then south to the American border.
The severe thunderstorm threat will continue eastwards with the line through the evening into Ontario.
AWM Day 1 Convective Outlook for August 3, 2016
The thunderstorms will track eastwards through the evening hours, with Winnipeg most likely seeing the activity between 8PM and 1AM.
Winds will diminish tonight behind the thunderstorm activity as temperature dip to around 17°C.
Update: EC Event Summary
Environment Canada has issued a summary of the severe weather that occurred across #MBstorm yesterday. The highlights are two confirmed tornadoes, loonie to quarter sized hail, wind gusts up to 111 km/h, and 4″ of rain!
Weather summary for Manitoba
issued by Environment Canada
at 5:04 a.m. CDT Thursday 4 August 2016.
Discussion.
An intense low pressure system tracking across the Prairies brought
widespread severe weather to much of southern Manitoba on Wednesday.
Two tornadoes have been confirmed, and numerous reports of heavy
rain, damaging winds, and large hail were also received.
The following reports have been received by ECCC meteorologists
(event times are approximate):
A funnel cloud was reported 8 km north of Hartney at 5:00 pm CDT.
A brief tornado was reported near Margaret at 5:10 pm CDT. No damage
was reported with this tornado.
A larger, longer lived tornado was reported 10 km west of Baldur at
5:20 pm CDT. It tracked northwards towards Stockton where a large
shed was destroyed shortly after 5:30 pm CDT.
ECCC meteorologists continue to investigate these and other
unconfirmed tornadoes.
Hail reports:
Loonie sized hail at Brandon at 6:05 pm CDT.
Quarter sized hail at Shoal Lake at 9:20 pm CDT.
Loonie sized hail at Wasagaming at 10:10 pm CDT.
Peak wind gust reports:
111 km/h at Morden at 7:26 pm CDT.
93 km/h at Portage la Prairie at 7:10 pm CDT.
92 km/h at St. Adolphe at 9:05 pm CDT.
85 km/h at Gretna at 7:46 pm CDT.
74 km/h at Winnipeg Airport at 9:45 pm CDT.
Rainfall totals in millimetres:
Erickson 104
Neepawa 75
Glenboro 66
St. Adolphe 64
Holland 56
Ethelbert 53
Fisherton 53
Morden 53
Killarney 50
Souris 49
Cypress River 45
Elm Creek 43
Snowflake 43
Winnipeg The Forks 2.7
Winnipeg Airport 1.4
Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologists are actively
seeking pictures or videos from Wednesday's severe weather events
and further damage they may have caused. Should you have any
information regarding these events or to report severe weather at
any time, please call 1-800-239-0484, email storm@ec.gc.ca, or tweet
#MBStorm.
Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.
End/PASPC
The Rest of the Week
Thursday will be a cooler day with a high near just 21°C with gusty northwesterly winds at 30-40 km/h. There will be a slight chance of some showers as the wrap-around from this low moves across the province. The humidity will be flushed out of the province making for more comfortable conditions. Temperatures will dip to 13°C Thursday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds.
Friday will be a pleasant day with winds out of the northwest at 20-30 km/h, highs in the mid-20’s and mainly sunny skies.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
A series of low pressure systems will bring two rounds of unsettled weather to the province before calmer weather moves in for the second half of the week.
Today will be a continuation of the humid weather that moved into the region on the weekend with muggy dewpoint values near 18°C persisting as temperatures climb to a high near 27°C. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through the day, although a few sunny breaks might be seen.
The main weather focus for the day will be thunderstorm potential. Any remaining thunderstorm activity from overnight will clear out this morning, but it won't be much of a reprieve before a new batch of thunderstorms develop along a slow-moving cold front sweeping across the Red River Valley. There will be a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with today's activity; primary threats will be large hail and torrential downpours, but a smaller threat of damaging winds also exists.
The RDPS hints at significant rainfall accumulations of ≥ 40-50mm possible after today’s thunderstorms.
The thunderstorm activity will clear out through the afternoon and evening hours from northwest to southeast across the Red River Valley & SE Manitoba. Skies will clear out, temperatures will drop to a low near 16°C, and the humidity will begin to be flushed out overnight.
Tuesday will be a beautiful day throughout the Red River Valley as temperatures climb to a high near 29°C. Winds will be breezy out of the west at 20-30 km/h. Expect a low near 16°C on Tuesday night.
The weather on Wednesday will be under the influence of the next low pressure system moving into the region. Through the day, showers will begin spreading into Southern Manitoba beginning in the southwest corner of the province in the morning, spreading into the Red River Valley through the afternoon, and then onwards towards the Ontario border in the evening.
There's still quite a bit of uncertainty on the main precipitation swath, so we'll be keeping an eye on this one as it develops. That said, best indications are for the heaviest accumulations over Parkland Manitoba with up to 25-30 mm of rain, and then lesser amounts south and eastwards as the rainfall takes on a more transient nature.
Long Range
The remainder of the week and heading through the weekend looks quite dry with mostly sunny skies and daytime highs in the mid-20's, so after the system clears out on Thursday morning, there should have plenty of pleasant days ahead!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
Heat and humidity will build back into Southern Manitoba this weekend, bringing both mid-summer warmth and the returning threat for severe thunderstorms.
Today will be a beautiful day for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a ridge of high pressure exiting the region continues to bring mainly sunny skies. Winds will remain light out of the south as temperatures climb to a high near 27°C. Tonight, under a few clouds, temperatures will dip down to near 14°C.
The weather pattern will begin to change on Saturday as a low pressure system developing over the Prairies begins drawing warmer, more humid air northwards into Manitoba. Daytime highs will be similar to Friday, around 27°C, however the humidity will begin to become a little more noticeable by the end of the day as the dewpoint climbs to the 16 or 17°C mark. Alongside the increasing humidity will come a slight chance of some late afternoon or early evening thunderstorms. The severe potential looks fairly limited at this time, as does the overall ability for any storms to organize, so while an isolated strong-to-severe storm may be possible, no widespread or organized severe threat is expected.
Temperatures will then dip down to around 17°C on Saturday night with a few clouds.
Dewpoint temperatures climbing to near the 20°C mark will make for a muggy Sunday.
Sunday will see the warmest air move into the Red River Valley alongside an increment in humidity. Daytime highs will climb to near the 30°C mark along with dewpoints rising to near the 20°C mark, making it feel quite muggy. Humidex values, a "feels like" temperature that combines temperature & humidity values, will be in the upper 30's, making for quite a hot day. Skies will be mixed, and a breezy southerly wind will be in place through the Red River Valley at 20-30 km/h.
Sunday night will be a warm one with temperatures dropping only to around 20°C. A threat for thunderstorms return with a likely severe threat. Over 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be in place over parts of the province, alongside 35 kt of bulk shear and strongly veering wind profiles. This suggests an all-threats severe hazard, including a tornado threat in the early hours of storm initiation over Southwestern Manitoba. As the thunderstorms progress eastwards, the threat will likely shift to strong wind and large hail.
Long Range
Next week is looking like a return to more unsettled weather. Uncertainty exists with the thunderstorm system at the end of the weekend, with some models suggesting a slower progressing system that would result in more of a rain/storm threat on Monday instead. After a brief reprieve from that system, another one looks to be on the doorstep for mid-week that will bring another chance for rain and thunderstorms. Following that, the week will end off slightly cooler than seasonal.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
