Not a Great Start to the Week

This week hasn’t exactly started out on a pleasant note as you’re no doubt aware. Unfortunately, conditions won’t improve much after today.

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Predicted conditions early Monday afternoon (courtesy: College of Dupage NAM model)
Monday
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Snow ending. Blowing snow.
-12°C / -21°C

Monday

Snow and heavy blowing snow is currently ongoing in parts of the Red River Valley. This snow and blowing snow will gradually taper off today, but not before snow totals of 10 to 20cm have piled up across Southern Manitoba. High temperatures today won’t be very pleasant, nor will low temperatures tonight. Overall a horrible start to the week.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday
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Mainly cloudy
-12°C / -22°C
Wednesday
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Mix of sun and cloud
-11°C / -21°C

Conditions on Tuesday will see little improvement from Monday. Highs will once again be very cold by March standards. Luckily no more precipitation is expected on Tuesday (except maybe a flurry here or there), which is at least something to be thankful for. Wednesday will again be a seasonably cold day, with no weather of note.

Long Range

The long range is…you guessed it, ugly. At this point the GFS model (a longer range model) doesn’t show us even getting to the freezing mark in the next ten days. While this may be an overly pessimistic forecast, it is certainly possible given the extensive snowpack over the Eastern Prairies. We can only hope it is wrong, and perhaps we’ll see at least some melting, however minimal, by the weekend.

A Cold Weekend To Close Out With More Snow

The cold front that pushed through last night will usher in a reinforcing shot of Arctic air which will drop our temperatures back below-normal for the next few days. The weather will remain fairly benign until Sunday when a potent inverted trough low-pressure system will bring snow to Southern Manitoba.

Friday & Saturday

Friday
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Mostly cloudy with light scattered flurries. Clearing overnight.
-13°C / -21°C
Saturday
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Sunny.
-11°C / -21°C

We’ll see mainly cloudy skies today with some light flurries scattered through the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be quite cool with a brisk northerly wind limiting our daytime high to only –13°C as it ushers Arctic air into Southern Manitoba. Skies will slowly clear out overnight as we head to an overnight low near –21°C. On Saturday we’ll see sunny skies with light winds and a high near –11°C. Temperatures will drop back to around –21°C again Saturday night under clear skies.

Sunday

Sunday will be the most active weather day we’ve had in Southern Manitoba in a while. An inverted trough will push into Southern Manitoba through the morning hours with snow beginning over SW Manitoba through the morning and moving into the Red River Valley by the evening. Right now it looks like this system will develop in a somewhat complex manner; a low pressure system will push out of Montana and intensify as it moves into South Dakota and taps into moister air over the Central Plains. This moisture will surge northwards ahead of the low, which will be rapidly evolving as it interacts with a strengthening shortwave travelling along the MB/ND border. The low will rapidly develop a sharp inverted trough and feed plenty of moisture into it. This is not dissimilar to the setup earlier this month that brought 2 feet of snow to some communities in the SW Red River Valley, but at this point it does not look like this system will be nearly as potent.

Liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts from the GDPS from Sunday morning to Monday morning.

Liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts from the GDPS for Sunday morning through Monday morning.

At the moment, it appears that most communities near the International Border (from Melita all the way to Emerson) will see between 10–20cm of snow; regions near the western escarpment of the Red River Valley may see an additional 5–10cm above that figure due to localized upslope enhancement from the easterly/northeasterly winds that will set up with this inverted trough. Further north in communities along the Trans-Canada Highway (Brandon, Portage la Prairie, Winnipeg), snowfall accumulations will be quite a bit less. Currently it looks like around 5–10cm can be expected, diminishing to closer to 5cm in the Whiteshell. This is simply a first guess, though; this system may end up developing in a completely different manner should only a few small things change. I’ve erred on the side of caution, giving what I think is a “worst case” scenario. Snowfall amounts could very well be less than mentioned here; we’ll provide an update tomorrow in the comments below updating what this system looks like it’s doing, along with a snowfall forecast map.

Next Week

This system will push off into Ontario on Monday and we’ll begin a slow trek back towards seasonal temperatures through the rest of the week. With warmer air trying to push into the province, it looks like we’ll have several chances to see more snow with as a more unsettled pattern develops.

More Cold Weather on the Way

While you may have fond memories of the 20°C weather we were having at this time last year, spring-like weather looks to be a long way off as a low pressure system deepening in Alberta will usher below-seasonal temperatures into the Prairies in it’s wake as it moves through our region tomorrow.

12hr. precipitation totals from the GDPS

12hr. precipitation accumulations from the GDPS for Thursday night as snow moves across southern Manitoba.
Wednesday

Increasing cloudiness.
-7°C / -10°C

The warm front associated with this system will move towards the Red River Valley this afternoon bringing with it increasing cloud cover and a breezy southerly wind. By late this afternoon the Red River Valley will be mainly cloudy with a southerly wind at around 30km/h and we’ll have climbed to a temperature of about –7°C. There will be a slight chance for some light flurries in Winnipeg and areas south this evening with the passage of the warm front, but meager moisture along the front combined with very dry air being advected into the RRV from the ridge of high pressure to our east will likely mean that most of the snow developed by the front will evaporate in the dry air before it hits the ground. If any organized snow does manage to develop, amounts will be insignificant as the snow will be light and short-lived. Temperatures will only drop to about –10°C under cloudy skies tonight as we sit in the warm sector before the cold front sweeps through.

Thursday & Friday

Thursday

Increasing cloud with evening flurries. 1-4cm expected.
-5°C / -15°C
Friday

Clearing.
-12°C / -22°C

Skies will briefly clear out on Thursday morning before more clouds move in midday in advance of the approaching cold front. Temperatures will climb up to around –5°C with light winds. The cold front associated with this system will begin to push it’s way through the Red River Valley in the evening and will bring some snow along with it. The snow should start a little later on Thursday evening and let up early Friday morning. Accumulations will not be very significant with only 2–4cm expected to be maximum amounts across the RRV. There’s a slight chance that some areas close to the U.S. border such as Morden, Gretna, Altona and Emerson, may see closer to 5cm as the bulk of the snowfall associated with this front is expected to fall in North Dakota and the slightly higher amounts may brush the extreme southern Red River Valley.

On Friday, we’ll see clearing skies as an Arctic ridge begins working into the Prairies. Temperatures will be quite cool for mid-March with daytime highs only hitting –12 or –13*°C, a whole 6–8°C below seasonal.

Weekend at a Glance

Saturday will be a near carbon-copy of Friday with sunny skies and a cool daytime high of around –11°C. Current indications for Sunday show a strong potential for a potent Alberta Clipper system to race along the U.S. border and spread snow through the Red River Valley by Sunday afternoon. It’s fairly early to focus too much on details, but forecasts currently indicate that 5–10cm of snow is quite possible from Winnipeg & the Trans-Canada highway south throug the RRV to the border. We’ll have more details on this system in our post later this week.

Fairly Normal Start to the Week

This week will start out with fairly typical conditions for this time of year. No significant weather is expected.

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GEM-Regional predicted precipitation on Monday

Monday

Monday
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Flurries
-4°C / -7°C

Monday will be a cloudy day, with a good chance of flurries. These flurries will be fairly disorganized in nature, but could amount to a couple of centimetres in many areas. Models do suggest that some localized areas could see close to 5cm by the time this area of snow completely dissipates on Tuesday morning. However, confidence is very low in terms of predicting which areas might be in for these slightly heavier amounts. As such, I’ll just suggest that any location in Southern Manitoba does stand a small chance of seeing close to 5cm if heavier periods of snow get stuck over the area. Temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid minus single digits in most of Southern Manitoba. Parts of western Manitoba may get up around the freezing mark as the wind there will switch to westerly, giving a downslope flow.

Tuesday and Wedensday

Tuesday
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Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Flurries.
-8°C / -15°C
Wednesday
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Mainly Sunny
-4°C / -7°C

Tuesday is a bit of a tricky forecast, albeit in a non-threatening kind of way. It looks like we may get stuck in low-level cloud and possible light flurries through the day. Alternatively, skies may clear and it could be a fairly bright and non-snowy kind of day. In either case, high temperatures will be in the mid or upper minus single digits with a breezy north-westerly wind.

Wednesday should see sunny skies return. Unfortunately, temperatures will remain stuck just below zero, as a stiff southerly flow prevents strong mixing and maximum temperature rises. As a result, we’ll see high temperatures once again in the low to mid minus single digits.

Long Range

The long-range still doesn’t look very spring-like unfortunately. Even worse than that, models continue to hint at a stormy pattern returning to southern Manitoba towards mid-March. If you’re hoping for spring, you’d better cross your fingers that a renewed storm track through our area brings rain, rather than more snow!