Blizzard to Start the Week

Heavy blowing snow will greet residents of the Red River Valley on Monday morning. Calmer, but colder weather is in store after the storm passes.

NAM model predicted weather on Monday morning

Monday

Monday

Blowing snow
-18°C / -28°C

A strong low pressure system has generated heavy blowing snow and blizzard conditions in parts of the Red River Valley on Monday morning. Wind speeds early Monday are in the 40-50km/h gusting to 60-70km/h range across Southern Manitoba. This in combination with a fresh 5-15cm of snow in the region is the obvious cause of the very poor weather conditions. The wind will gradually taper off through the day on Monday, allowing the blizzard to subside as well. However, blowing snow at some level will last through basically the whole day in open country.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly sunny
-22°C / -31°C

Tuesday will be a very cold day, in fact the coldest in quite awhile. Lows on Tuesday morning will be in the upper minus twenties, with highs in the low minus twenties. Wind chill values will be elevated as well, making for a rather unpleasant day.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly sunny
-15°C / -20°C

Wednesday morning will be another cold one, with lows around minus thirty. Daytime highs will moderate somewhat, reaching into the minus teens. However, wind chill values will become an issue again on Wednesday afternoon, probably not what you were hoping to hear.

Long Range

There is no sign of spring in the long range forecast at the moment, but I do know that each passing day is in fact one day closer to spring, whether it feels that way or not.

Warming Up This Weekend; Snow for Sunday

Another low pressure system developing over the Yukon Territory will push milder air into Manitoba tomorrow and return us to normal-becoming-above-normal temperatures by the end of the weekend. This low pressure system will slide southwards through the province on Sunday, bringing some light snow with it.

4AM Satellite Composite

North American composite satellite image showing the surge of warmer air pushing into the Alberta. Image valid for 4AM CST.
Today

Mostly cloudy with periods of light snow.
-13°C / -18°C

The Red River Valley will be mainly cloudy today as a mass of stratus pushes down from Central Manitoba, sliding southwards into North Dakota, bringing periods of light snow throughout the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to around –13°C this afternoon and temperatures will drop to around –18°C tonight as skies clear this evening.

Saturday

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud. Patchy flurries in the afternoon.
-6°C / -8°C

The warm front will push across the Red River Valley through Saturday afternoon, pushing our daytime highs up to an above-seasonal –6°C. Skies will become a mix of sun and cloud as the warm front moves in which, when combined with 850mb temperatures sitting near –10°C, will produce some scattered flurries across the Red River Valley. Skies will completely cloud over on Saturday night with temperatures falling to and remaining steady near –8°C.

Sunday

Sunday

Light snow beginning in the afternoon. 2-4*cm*.
-3°C / -7°C

Sunday will be the most active day of the bunch as this low pressure system finally pushes through. Temperatures will climb up to around –3°C as light snow pushes in midday. This system will not be particularly intense; total snowfall accumulations for the afternoon look to be only a couple cm. The light snow will persist through much of the night with another cm or two falling by morning as temperatures dip to about –10°C. Overall it looks like the Red River Valley will see less than 5cm of snow total with this system.

Some disagreement does exist within the models, in particular pertaining to the intensity of this system; the Canadian GDPS is, in particular, quite gung-ho on making this quite a potent system. It’s hard to tell what to make of it, considering it’s the outlier when compared to the other major models and this is the first significant weather system since CMC upgraded the GDPS on Wednesday claiming an improvement to the output “usually seen only once a decade.” Should the GDPS solution be the correct one, the forecast for Sunday should still hold up, save for the potential for a little more snow (closer to 4–6cm instead of 2–4cm). Monday, on the other hand, would likely be a significant winter storm with close to 10cm of snow falling and blizzard conditions through the Red River Valley (excluding the City of Winnipeg). The other models have just a couple cm of snow for Monday with breezy northwesterly winds, but nothing that would produce more than some local blowing snow. Right now, I think that the GDPS is digging the low out of SK too much and has it pushing too far south which would intensify the low too much and end up producing too much snow & wind. It looks more reasonable for a couple cm of snow and some breezy north winds producing just some local blowing snow.

So we’ll have an increasingly warm and mainly pleasant weekend ahead; Monday looks to be a wild card at this point, but holds the potential to be a significant winter storm event. We’ll post updated information as we get closer to the event in the comments below. Enjoy the long weekend!

Alberta Clipper To Blast SW Manitoba

A powerful Alberta Clipper system will push through southwest Manitoba this evening bringing heavy snowfall and blowing snow to the region.

Probability of > 2cm of snow from this AB Clipper

Probability of > 2cm of snow from this AB clipper. Blue boundary marks > 30% chance, green boundary marks > 60% chance.

The weather across Southern Manitoba will be fairly benign today with daytime highs generally sitting just below the freezing mark with increasing clouds through the day. Winds will remain light through the day. Light snow will push into southwestern Manitoba this afternoon, potentially pushing into the western Red River Valley as well. Winnipeg may see some light snow this afternoon, but it’s going to likely remain to our southwest; should snow push into the city, there will be little-to-no accumulation. Regions that see more persistent snow today, potentially including the western Red River Valley, accumulations will likely total around 2-ish cm.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy with patchy light snow.
-3°C / -16°C

Early this evening the Alberta Clipper will begin working it’s way into the Virden & Melita regions, quickly expanding eastwards towards Brandon and Pilot Mound. General snowfall accumulations will be close to 5cm, but there will also be a very narrow band, just north of the track of the clipper, where accumulations will be closer to 10cm. This corridor of heavy snow will lie across the Trans-Canada highway near the Saskatchewan border; anybody travelling west tonight should prepare to encounter heavy snow, snow drifts and near-zero visibilities near the Saskatchewan border. Further east, there’s a little disagreement on what will happen; most models suggest very little snow will fall in the Red River Vally tonight, however the NAM guidance is suggesting that a fair amount could fall. At this point, I think that most of the snow will push into North Dakota before it pushes eastwards towards Winnipeg or the central Red River Valley. Areas near the International Border may get clipped with a couple cm of snow as this clipper exits the region. Winds will remain relatively light, picking up to 20 gusting 40km/h out of the northeast overnight through much of Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will drop to around –14 to –16°C across Southern Manitoba.

Thursday

Thursday

Clearing in the morning.
-14°C / -21°C

Cooler air will filter into Southern Manitoba on Thursday behind the clipper, bringing us a return to seasonal temperatures. The remaining cloud from Wednesday’s system should clear out fairly early in the day, leaving us with mainly sunny skies. We’ll climb to around –13°C with a light north wind. Temperatures will drop into the –20’s tonight as another Arctic ridge slumps into the Prairies.

Friday

Friday

Clearing in the morning.
-14°C / -20°C

Southern Manitoba will be locked under the Arctic ridge on Friday which will result in another day with seasonal temperatures. Highs will sit near –15°C on Friday across most of Southern Manitoba with temperatures dropping back towards –20°C for the night.

After that, it looks like we’ll head back towards above-normal temperatures for a few days. Little-to-no precipitation is expected over the next while.

Warm for a Bit Longer

With the exception of Monday, we’ll see our fairly warm weather continue into this week.

image

Surface temperatures as forecast by the NAM for Tuesday afternoon

Monday

Monday
image
Clearing. Chance of flurries.
-18°C / -8°C

Monday will be a day of transition, as a strong Colorado Low to our south moves off into Ontario, causing a cooler air mass to filter into Southern Manitoba. It won’t be a super-cold day, but definitely chillier than the conditions experienced on the weekend. Skies will clear through the day as low-level moisture is gradually removed from the area. There may be a bit of light snow in the morning, but otherwise no precipitation is expected.

Tuesday

Tuesday
image
Mix of sun and cloud
-1°C / -9°C

Tuesday looks to a rather mild day in Southern Manitoba, with high temperatures around the zero mark in many areas. Parts of south-western Manitoba are most favoured to get up to, or slightly above, zero. In the Red River Valley temperatures will be in the low minus single digits, with some areas potentially getting just up to the freezing mark.

Wednesday

Wednesday
image
Snow
-1°C / -6°C

We’ll see one more warm day on Wednesday, though the warm conditions will be tempered by another batch of snow. An Alberta Clipper will roll through on Wednesday, bringing light to moderate snowfall to Southern Manitoba. This could be a fairly significant snowfall in some areas, but it’s too early to give a more precise forecast with numerical accumulations. Temperatures will remain quite mild in spite of the, with highs generally in the low minus single digits in most areas.

It looks like this clipper will draw down another cold air mass which will stick around for awhile. Colder weather is expected to last into next weekend.