Pleasant Weather Continues

The beautiful weather we’ve been having this week will continue in a slightly cooler fashion through the rest of the week as the benign weather pattern holds on.

500mb Winds valid 18Z Thursday

500mb heights and wind speeds valid at 18Z on Thursday. A slack flow will continue over Southern Manitoba through the rest of the week.
Wednesday

Mainly cloudy.
-3°C / -11°C

Today will be the least pleasant day of the bunch as a passing “cool” front moves through the Red River Valley. Winds will pick up this morning to 30km/h out of the north as we climb to a high of around –3°C. With mainly cloudy skies expected through the day today, it will feel a little cool out there. No snow is expected, but one certainly can’t rule out a few flakes, especially near the western escarpment of the RRV and over SW Manitoba. The clouds will begin to break up overnight as we drop to around –11°C.

Thursday and Friday

Thursday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-6°C / -15°C
Friday

Mainly sunny.
-6°C / -16°C

Thursday will see a mixed sky as a weak ridge of high pressure sits across Southern Manitoba. As we move into Friday this ridge will be able to slowly erode most of the cloud over the Red River Valley, although SW Manitoba will likely remain relatively cloudy over this same time. Other than Friday being sunnier, Thursday & Friday look to be near carbon-copies of each other with daytime highs near –6°C and overnight lows dipping to around –15°C. Winds should remain fairly light to the end of the work week.

It’s worth mentioning that with the sun beginning to get stronger, even at temperatures around –5°C the sun will be able to work at melting the snow. With a weak ridge over us and light winds, it’s fairly likely that some fog patches will develop through the Red River Valley during the nights. At this time, it doesn’t seem like they should be too extensive, but it’s certainly possible that they could be quite dense. Over the past few nights, fog has formed just south of the U.S. border and reduced visibilities to as low as 200–300m. Any fog that does form should burn off fairly quickly by mid-morning.

Mild and Settled

This week will start out mild, with little in the way of active weather.

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NAM model predicted 500mb winds showing a slack flow through Southern Manitoba

A relatively stagnant flow will prevail over Manitoba for much of this week as the main storm track remains well to our south. This will give us seasonably mild temperatures and little if any precipitation.

Monday
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Mainly sunny
-2°C / -16°C
Tuesday
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Mainly sunny. Chance of flurries overnight.
-1°C / -8°C
Wednesday
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Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.
-4°C / -18°C

Monday and Tuesday

Monday will be a pleasant day, with temperatures in the low minus single digits in most areas. There may be a few readings up near the zero degree mark in localized patches. There will be a light to moderate south wind through the day, but it won’t be particularly noticeable in most urbanized areas.

Tuesday will be almost identical to Monday, with temperatures once again generally around or just below zero. There may be patches of fog in Southern Manitoba again on Tuesday morning, but they will dissipate with daytime heating in the morning. The south wind from Monday will die off for the most part, making it a non-factor. A passing weather system may bring us some light snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday, but accumulations will be small.

Wednesday

As that system passes by on Wednesday morning, a weak cold front will go through, dropping temperatures slightly. This won’t prompt any kind of significant cool-down, but it will switch the wind to a slightly brisker northerly flow. Temperatures won’t change much however, with high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits.

Long Range

In the longer range there is little to talk about. It appears we’ll cool down a bit towards week’s end, but otherwise models show no real trends over the next 7-10 days. No significant warm-ups are in the forecast, nor are there are major weather systems in the forecast. Unfortunately, this also means there is still no sign of spring…but at least there’s no sign of a nasty winter pattern returning either.

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

It’ll be a great weekend to get out and enjoy outdoor activities as we see little in the way of weather and seasonal temperatures.

Friday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-7°C / -14°C
Saturday

Mainly sunny.
-7°C / -14°C
Sunday

Becoming cloudy, chance of patchy flurries.
-6°C / -10°C

There isn’t much to say about the next few days; today and tomorrow will be pleasant with clouds slowly clearing out and daytime highs near –7°C. Overnight lows will sit around –14°C for the next couple nights. There will be increasing cloudiness as a warm front approaches on Sunday bringing with it a slight chance of some patchy flurries and a high temperature around –6°C. The overnight low on Sunday will only be –10°C as warmer air moves in.

Next week looks to be off to a very pleasant start with above-normal daytime highs of about –5°C and no significant weather expected through the first half of the week. Long-range models hint that we may cool down back to seasonal or just below seasonal temperatures for the second half of the week.

Have a great weekend and get out there and enjoy the nice weather!

A Return To Seasonal Weather

After a surprisingly cold day yesterday, we’ll be quickly returning to seasonal temperatures over the next couple days with little weather to worry about.

12hr. QPF valid Thursday at 18Z

12 hour precipitation accumulation from the RDPS model valid near lunch time on Thursday. The RDPS is forecasting roughly 1–3cm of snow over Western Manitoba as a cold trough lingers over the area.
Wednesday

Increasing cloud.
-17°C / -20°C

Some cloud will push in today as another disturbance begins to push into the region but our highs will still remain below normal, sitting at about –17°C for most of the Red River Valley. Winds will remain fairly light out of the south through the day. Temperatures will drop only a few degrees tonight to about –20°C thanks to lingering cloud cover.

Thursday

Thursday

Becoming cloudy.
-10°C / -15°C

We’ll see a return to normal temperatures Thursday as warmer air continues to work it’s way into Manitoba. Highs will sit near –10°C under a mix of sun and clouds. The cloud will be from a system to our west which is not expected to impact the Red River Valley but will bring some light snow to southwestern Manitoba. Skies will remain fairly cloudy overnight as we drop to –15°C.

Friday

Friday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-9°C / -13°C

Friday will once again bring a mix of sun and cloud. Almost a carbon copy of the day before, our daytime high should get up to around –9°C. Temperatures will drop to only about –13°C on Friday night as we head into a pleasant weekend with seasonal temperatures of around –8°C expected and little chance of snow.

Enjoy the return to seasonal temperatures and get out there and enjoy Festival du Voyageur or go for a skate down on the river! If you didn’t see it yesterday, be sure to check out our special post yesterday summarizing the Louis Riel Day blizzard.