Cooler Conditions Bring Flurries, Windy Thursday

A pair of low pressure systems tracking across the Prairies over the next few days will bring a couple bouts of flurries to Winnipeg, separated by a slightly warmer, but much windier, Thursday.

Winnipeg will see cloudy skies today as breezy northwesterly winds up to around 30 gusting 50 km/h move into the region behind a cold front that passed through overnight. The clouds will likely bring scattered flurries to the Red River Valley, but no accumulating snow is expected.1 Temperatures will be cooler than Monday or Tuesday were, with highs topping out around -5°C today in Winnipeg. The gusty winds will taper off later this afternoon. Tonight, temperatures will dip to a low near -11°C under variable cloudiness as the cloud cover from one system departs as the next area of cloud moves in from the west.

Moderate southeasterly winds will build into the Red River Valley on Thursday

Thursday will be a warmer day in Winnipeg, but strong south-southeasterly winds will make it feel not nearly as pleasant. A low pressure system approaching from the west will increase winds out of the south up to 40 gusting 60 km/h as overcast skies spread across the Red River Valley. While temperatures will reach a high near -2°C, the strong winds and lack of sunshine will make it feel rather cool. Winds will taper off on Thursday evening as the low pressure system moves into Manitoba. It will bring light snow to Winnipeg for Thursday night as a cold front slowly slides through the Red River Valley. At the moment, it appears snow amounts will be low, with up to around 2 cm expected. Temperatures will remain steady near -1°C through the night.

While Winnipeg will just be grazed by snowfall on Thursday night, significant amounts of the white stuff will fall across the central Prairies

Friday will bring cooler temperatures to Winnipeg. Any remaining snow will quickly exit the region in the morning, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds that usher in a cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop through the day to around -6°C with some sunny breaks developing in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip down to a low near -11°C again with variable cloudiness overnight and a slight chance of a few scattered flurries.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures look to be on a bit of a roller coaster through the weekend into the first half of next week, oscillating between seasonal temperatures and below-seasonal temperatures. No significant weather systems are on the horizon in the next 7-10 days.

So in general, near to slightly below-seasonal temperatures with no significant snowfalls. It appears the cold snap that began November has moderated towards seasonal, and a stretch of relatively benign weather lies ahead for Winnipeg.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -10°C.

  1. Snowfall amounts will generally be 0 to 2 cm.

Warmer, Cloudier Weather Ahead

Winnipeg will see mixed to cloudy skies over the coming days as near-seasonal temperatures return to the region. The milder weather will continue until the end of the week, brought to an end by a low pressure system moving through that will usher Arctic air back into the southern Prairies.

Today will bring more cloud to Winnipeg as warmer temperatures move into the region. Highs will climb to around the freezing mark today as south-southeasterly winds pick up to 20 km/h. A few sunny breaks may show up later in the day, however southeasterly winds tend to keep the low cloud stuck in the Valley until a westerly component can develop, so we may see the cloud stick around all day. Winnipeg should see variable cloudiness overnight with winds continuing out of the south near 20 km/h. Temperatures will dip to a low near -3°C.

On Tuesday, a low pressure system will cross through the province, bringing with it variable cloudiness and winds that gradually diminish while shifting more westerly. No rain or snow is expected for Winnipeg and temperatures will climb to a high near +1°C. More cloud will move into the Red River Valley on Tuesday night as winds shift northwesterly behind a cold front and winds pick up to around 30 km/h. Temperatures will dip down to a low near -7°C.

RDPS Forecast 850mb Temperatures valid 12Z Tuesday November 14 to 00Z Wednesday November 15, 2017
The forecast 850mb temperatures show the cooler air pushing southwards behind the cold front as the day progresses

Wednesday will bring cooler temperatures to Winnipeg alongside cloudy skies. Highs will climb back to just around -5°C as northerly winds gradually taper off through the day. There will be a slight chance of flurries, but it looks like there’s no significant chance of accumulating snow. Winds will continue to taper off on Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure moves into the province, sending temperatures down to lows around -9 or -10°C.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will climb back towards seasonal values for Thursday and Friday as another low pressure system begins working it’s way into the western Prairies. Thursday night into Friday looks to bring the chance of some snow as the low passes, then much cooler weather will move back into the province once again, sending highs back down to the -8 to -10°C range with overnight lows dipping back into the mid-minus teens.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -9°C.

Cold, Windy, and Snowy Friday the Gateway To Seasonal Temperatures

Today will be downright unpleasant out there as a potentially record breaking cold start to the day1 gives way to strong southerly winds as snow moves into the region. After today, though, conditions improve substantially with the record-breaking cold moving out of the area and a gradual return to seasonal weather.

The wind will be out in full force today as strong southerlies strengthen to 40 gusting 60 km/h this morning, which combined with the cold temperatures will produce wind chill values near -30 in the first half of the morning. Temperatures will slowly climb through the day, reaching -9°C this afternoon and then sticking there until rising further overnight to around the -5°C mark by Saturday morning. The winds will begin to taper off in the evening, diminishing to calm by Saturday morning.

RDPS Forecast 10m Winds valid 21Z Friday November 10, 2017
Strong southerly winds will be in place across the Red River Valley this afternoon

Those strong winds are due to the tight pressure gradient between a departing high pressure system that brought the cold temperatures and an approaching low pressure system. In addition to the winds, this low will spread light snow through western Manitoba this morning then into the Red River Valley for the afternoon. Most of the snow will be done by evening, but flurries will likely persist overnight.

While snowfall amounts won’t be too high — generally around 3 to 5 cm is expected — as the snow combines with the strong winds, travel may be impacted by scattered pockets of blowing snow. Certainly not a blizzard by any stretch of the imagination, but be prepared to take some sections of highways slowly as reduced visibility may be an issue from time to time.

RDPS Forecast 24hr. Snowfall valid 15Z Saturday November 11, 2017
General snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 cm are expected by Saturday morning across southern Manitoba

The weekend looks better; any remaining flurries should taper off Saturday morning as a very broad ridge of high pressure builds into the Prairies, although a few scattered flurries will be possible through the remainder of the day. Saturday should see closer-to-seasonal temperatures with highs near -2 or -3°C and northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 km/h under mostly cloudy skies, although some afternoon sunny breaks are possible.

Temperatures cool off a bit Saturday night into Sunday as the ridge of high pressure moves through Manitoba. Winnipeg should see a low near -10°C on Saturday night with variable cloudiness and light winds. Sunday will bring mixed skies and slightly cooler temperatures once again with highs near -6°C. Sunday night’s low is a bit of a tricky proposition as temperatures will likely dive in the evening, but then clouds and increasing winds will move in and bring the temperature back up to -6 or -5°C by Monday morning. At this point, it seems like the low will dip to around -11°C before climbing back up, but if it stays clear for a bit longer it could be a few degrees lower, or if it remains cloudier temperatures may not even dip much from the daytime high.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring seasonal temperatures back to the region with highs of 0 to +2°C expected on both Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system moving through on Tuesday may bring some precipitation to the region, then temperatures cool down on Wednesday before returning to the freezing mark on Thursday as another low pressure system moves through bringing a chance of snow to the Red River Valley. So a bit of a mixed bag, but certainly warmer than it has been!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 0°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.

  1. This post is being written on Thursday evening; while we’re pretty proud of our forecasts, even we can’t claim to be able to forecast down to tenths of degrees!

Flurries Usher in Arctic Chill, Seasonal Temperatures Return for the Weekend

A few flurries today will mark the arrival of another shot of colder temperatures as an approaching upper-level trough keeps Arctic air entrenched over the region. Improvement is on the horizon, with near-seasonal temperatures moving back into the region on the weekend.

Today will bring cloudy skies and flurries to much of the Red River Valley as colder Arctic air slumps southwards in the wake of a cold front that moved through on Tuesday evening. The flurries will be relatively light with little accumulations, however a light northerly flow and very cool temperatures aloft will support some lake-effect snow off of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg through the day and into the evening.

During the day, the snow from Lake Manitoba will primarily affect regions south of the lake between Oakville and Austin, including Portage la Prairie. Heading into the evening, winds shift more to the west-northwest, and while the snow will weaken with less favourable fetch, it’s likely that light snow coming off the lake will shift eastwards towards Winnipeg.

Lake Winnipeg will primarily see moderate flurries off the North Basin moving through the Narrows and adjacent areas and eastwards into Berens River for much of the next 24 hours. The South Basin will produce some lighter snow that will spread southwards off the lake, shifting southeast towards Pinawa and then eastwards towards Bisset as winds swing around in the evening.

RDPS Forecast 24hr. QPF valid 12Z Thursday November 9, 2017
Flurries are expected across much of southern Manitoba, with enhanced snow in the lee of the lakes

The widespread snow will exit the province by late Wednesday afternoon with lake-effect flurries from Lake Manitoba and the south basin of Lake Winnipeg persisting into Thursday morning.

Temperatures will climb to a high near -8°C with light northwesterly winds. Winnipeg will see a continued chance of flurries on Thursday night with a low near -18°C.1

Thursday will be a very cool day with high temperatures across the Red River Valley climbing to just-10 or -9°C. Winds will remain light with the only clouds in the region those that move off of the lakes. Skies should be clear heading into Thursday night with temperatures plummeting to a low near -20°C.2 Cloud will begin to move into the region late Thursday night/early Friday morning ahead of a warm front approaching the region.

GDPS Forecast 24hr. Snowfall at 10:1 SLR valid 12Z Saturday November 11, 2017
Accumulating snow is expected across portions of southern Manitoba on Friday

Friday will bring a weather system that will trigger a change in the large-scale weather pattern, shunting the cold air out of the region and sending Winnipeg back towards seasonal temperatures. Expect cloudy skies with light snow building into the region as the warm front moves through. Temperatures will climb to a high near -6°C, but breezy southerly winds strengthening to 40 gusting 60 km/h will make it feel much cooler as wind chill values dip to around -15. Friday night will continue cloudy with a slight chance of light snow as temperatures remain steady around -6°C. Winds will gradually taper off by Saturday morning.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, it looks like Winnipeg will move into a variably cloudy and dry pattern, with temperatures returning towards seasonal values. Saturday and Sunday both look to bring highs in the -2 to -4°C range, then highs are expected to climb to the freezing mark for the start of next week. Overnight lows will be follow suit, climbing back into the -8 to -4°C range.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently +1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

  1. Further to the south in the Red River Valley, away from the lakes, temperatures could drop into the -20 to -22°C range overnight.
  2. Again, overnight lows could drop even colder further south of Winnipeg in the Red River Valley, into the -22 to -25°C range.