Category: Forecasts

Unsettled Week Leads to Warm Weekend

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Winnipeg will see a few more days of unsettled conditions, but the weather will settle heading into the weekend as temperatures climb into the upper 20s.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday June 12, 2024
A sharp warm front will move into southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

To start things off today, showers that moved in overnight will continue to track east out of the region. There may be a few sunny breaks this morning, but more cloud will spread into the region for midday. An upper low moving into the province this afternoon will destabilize things and bring a chance for a few showers or thundershowers. Temperatures will climb to a high in the low 20s with morning southerlies easing followed by moderate westerlies picking up to 40 gusting 60 km/h in the afternoon.

The cloud cover will break up tonight with temperatures dipping down to around 10 °C as winds ease. There may be a low chance for a few passing showers overnight.

On Wednesday, another low developing over the western Prairies will push a warm front across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid-20s in Winnipeg and other areas along and south of the front, while cloudier and cooler temperatures stick around for areas north. Heading into the afternoon, though, this front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. This feature will bring higher levels of energy to the region to fuel thunderstorms; MLCAPE — mixed-layer CAPE, a measure of energy available for a thunderstorm to use — will climb to around 1,000 J/kg and be coupled with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer wind shear. These values will combine to bring a risk of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms to southern Manitoba on Wednesday afternoon.

This activity will taper off heading into the night, though isolated showers could linger into the early morning hours of Thursday. Temperatures will dip down into the low teens.

On Thursday, an upper low will track across southern Manitoba. It will bring temperatures back down to the low 20s in Winnipeg along with mixed skies and a chance of showers. Skies will clear up on Thursday night with temperatures heading down into the low teens again.

Long Range Outlook

The weather will finally settle down on Friday with sunnier skies as an area of high pressure crosses the province. Warmer air will begin building into the region on Friday with daytime highs climbing back into the mid-20s.

A deep southerly flow will develop for the weekend, ushering more heat and moisture northwards. This will help push temperatures into the mid- to upper-20s with dew points rising into the mid-teens. While not anything that will feel overly humid or sticky, the humidity will be more noticeable than it has for most of the year so far.

Unfortunately, this push of warmer weather looks likely to bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for multiple waves of showers or thunderstorms to push across southern Manitoba.

Cooler, more settled conditions are likely to start next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Seasonably Cool and Unsettled for a Few More Days

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Cool and unsettled weather will continue across southern Manitoba into the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday June 7, 2024
Seasonal daytime highs in the low 20s will be in place across the southern Prairies today.

A slow-moving upper low will continue to impact the region today as it slumps southeast out of Saskatchewan. It will bring breezy westerly winds to the region as highs climb to around 20 °C. Like yesterday, morning sun will give way to afternoon cloud as another weak disturbance ripples through the region. It will bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms to much of southern Manitoba, but the Parkland and Interlake regions will see the most of the activity.

The convective showers will taper off this evening and skies will clear. Temperatures will head down to a low near 10 °C with light winds.

On Saturday, the upper low will move through southern Manitoba. Temperatures will again head to a high near 20 °C but winds will be lighter than they will be today. A sunny start will turn to mixed skies with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Everything will clear out with the lowering evening sun, then temperatures will head to a low in the 5 to 10 °C range.

On Sunday, another sunny start will give way to mixed to cloudy skies as a hang-back trough from the departing upper low swings through. It doesn’t look like there will be much of a chance of showers, but it will be a cool day. Daytime highs in the region will reach into the 15 to 20 °C range with north winds at 20 to 30 km/h. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, skies should clear out for Sunday night as lows head down into the single-digits.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will likely bring a return to seasonal temperatures, but there will be a series of disturbances that bring more wet weather to southern Manitoba:

  • On Monday night, a low pressure system moving into the region from North Dakota could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to southern Manitoba. This system could bring a variable 10 to 40 mm to the region.
  • A disturbance clipping through the region on Wednesday could bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms to central and southern Mantioba.
  • …and again on Thursday, though at this point it looks like any precipitation should stay north of Winnipeg.
  • And then looking irresponsibly far out, another convective system from the United States could move into the region on Saturday into Sunday, bringing moderate rainfall to parts of the province in showers and thunderstorms.

No dry stretches in the forecast for our area anytime soon! As long as the rate of moisture accrual stays manageable, this could be a positive stretch of weather for many. Moisture is available for germinating plants, we’re not being roasted too early in the year, the frequent showers and seasonably cool conditions are helping fire conditions across the province, and the replenishment of groundwater will help areas of the province that have had to resort to water restrictions at times in recent years due to limited water supply.

We’ll be back next week; have a great weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Mild and Unsettled Days Ahead

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Mild spring temperatures will stick around for the weekend in Winnipeg, but unsettled conditions will bring a couple chances for [thunder]showers.

ECMWF 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Monday June 3, 2024
A low pressure system will bring more rain to southern Manitoba on Sunday.

A low pressure system over northern Manitoba will bring moderate westerly winds to the Winnipeg area today. Winds will strengthen up to 40 gusting 60 km/h today as temperatures climb to a high in the low 20s. An upper trough will swing into the region from the west later in the day and support an area of [thunder]showers.

With weak instability, severe weather is unlikely. Scattered showers with risk of a thundershower will likely develop late this afternoon over the southwest corner of the province and move across the Red River Valley this evening. Much of the activity will taper off on Saturday night, but a chance of showers will persist to Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip down to a low near 10 °C overnight with diminishing winds.

Skies will clear on Saturday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. With lighter winds, temperature swill climb back to a high in the low to mid-20s. The quiet, calm weather will be short-lived as another disturbance moves towards the region on Saturday night. A low pressure system tracking along the international border will begin to spread cloud into southern Manitoba later in the night. Otherwise, it should be an uneventful night with a low once again near 10 °C.

As the low tracks across the region on Sunday, it will spread showers and thunderstorms with it. Much of southern Manitoba will see cloudier conditions on Sunday with a good chance of rain. Temperatures will be mild, though, with highs steady in the low to mid-20s. Many areas could receive another 5 to 15 mm of rain through the day.

The showers taper off on Sunday night as the low tracks into Ontario. Light northerly winds will develop behind this system with temperatures dipping to a low in the low teens.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start with a flip back to sunnier skies, but another notable low is forecast to move into the region for Tuesday. This system could bring waves of rain to the region through Wednesday with a risk of thunderstorms. Rainfall totals will have significant variability with this system, but early indications are that localized accumulations as high as 30 to 60 mm of rain may be possible across southern Manitoba.

The wet weather will come to an end for Thursday as a high builds into the region and brings sunnier conditions into next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Sunshine Returns as Temperatures Warm Up

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will finally see the sun for a couple days as the cooler temperatures break across the region and some summer warmth builds back in.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday May 29, 2024
Mild temperatures will spread into southern Manitoba on Wednesday with daytime highs in the low to mid-20s.

A brief note to start: the absence over the past couple weeks wasn’t planned. I caught COVID and it ended up being a rough ride that’s taken a while to recover from. I’m getting back into form now and hope to move back towards posting with more regularity again.

That said, I’m back with good news. After a large cool and wet couple weeks, the weather will finally turn a corner today. A large area of high pressure will descend from the Arctic into Manitoba today, while an upper ridge builds into the Prairies. This will settle the weather and bring sunny skies to the region as northerly winds ease. It will be seasonably cool today with a high in the 15 to 20 °C range and an overnight low near 5 °C.

Warmer weather will arrive tomorrow as the high pushes off to the east and a deep southerly flow develops. A broad area of southerly winds from 30 to 50 km/h will develop across southern Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan, sending highs into the low to mid-20s. As the upper ridge moves over the region on Wednesday night, temperatures will stay mild with lows dipping to the mid-teens.

As the upper ridge moves east, a deep upper trough will follow in its wake, spreading unsettled conditions through Alberta and Saskatchewan. Widespread thunderstorm activity will develop in those areas on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system progresses.

By Thursday, the upper trough will be pushing into Manitoba. Down at the ground, this system will show as a low pressure system over northern Saskatchewan with an occluding frontal wave dropping southwards into the American Plains. The region will see cloudier conditions on Thursday as this disturbance moves through, and a band of [thunder]showers is likely to develop and move across the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should be near-seasonal with a high in the low 20s and an overnight low on Thursday night in the 10 to 15 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

Conditions will settle for the end of the week with highs in the low to mid-20s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The region will likely see a mix of sun and cloud through all three days, but there may be a chance of isolated showers on Friday and Sunday.

Next week looks to start with more of the same! Seasonal temperatures, variable cloudiness, and occasional chances for showers.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.