Another Colorado Low To Bring More Snow, Wind to Southern Manitoba

Snowy and windy conditions will develop tonight across parts of southern Manitoba as a potent winter storm pushes northeastwards through the American Plains.

Winnipeg will start the day today with cloudy skies and a few fog patches. It won’t last too long though; skies will clear early this morning and temperatures will climb to a high near 0°C. More cloud will push in later this afternoon as the Colorado Low lifts northwards through the United States. By evening, snow will begin lifting through the Red River Valley into the southeastern corner of the province. As this happens, winds will strengthen out of the north, reaching 40 gusting 60 km/h by Thursday morning.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, snowfall amounts will be tricky as once again as snow will quickly taper off on the northwestern side of this system. Right now it looks like that line will run roughly through Winnipeg, with amounts quickly dropping off to nothing northwest of the city and increasing to ≥ 10 cm to the southeast. That said, if this line shifts in either direction by even 20-30 km, that could be the difference between no snow or 10 cm of snow. Right now it appears that the city will get around 2-5 cm of snow by the time it tapers off, but we’ll keep an eye on things in case this system trends westwards.

Temperatures will remain steady near -2°C on Thursday with northerly winds continuing at 40 to 50 km/h. Blowing snow shouldn’t be too much of an issue, except for the southeastern Red River Valley. In that area, moderate snow will combine with the strong winds to produce poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow. In Winnipeg, any remaining snow should taper off mid-morning but skies will remain cloudy through the day. The wind will ease through the evening to around 20 km/h. The clouds should break up a bit overnight as temperatures head to a low near -8°C.

Friday will bring mixed to mostly cloudy skies as some morning sunshine gives way to afternoon cloud. Temperatures should reach a high near -4°C and winds will remain out of the northwest at about 20 km/h. Cloudy skies should remain in place Friday night with a low near -13°C.

Long Range Outlook

The weekend looks pleasant with temperatures returning 0°C, variable cloudiness, and light winds. Daytime highs will continue to climb into the low single digits next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -11°C.

A Windy Climb to Warmer Weather

Winnipeg will see windy conditions develop later today as warmer temperatures push in from the west.

The prolonged stretch of below-seasonal temperatures in Winnipeg that began on February 3rd is finally coming to an end. A developing westerly flow aloft will spread milder Pacific air eastwards across the Prairies today. Unfortunately for Winnipeg, there will be a bit of a transition day before we shift into the warmer temperatures. Under a few clouds today, winds will remain light until later this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase to around 30 km/h by evening, persisting at 30 to 40 km/h through the night. These southerly winds will keep temperatures a bit cooler with a high near -7°C. Temperatures will remain fairly steady overnight, dipping to a low near -8°C with increasing cloudiness.

3km NAM Forecast 10m Wind valid 06Z Tuesday March 12, 2019
The Red River Valley will see moderate southerly wind on Monday night.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a potent Colorado Low developing in the US will be the controlling force of the weather. While at one point it seemed the Red River Valley might see a major storm, forecasts continue to trend the system southeastwards. Now, it looks that southeastern Manitoba may see some snow, but that most of the province will escape it. Instead, the region will see plenty of low cloud and mild temperatures near the freezing mark.

The wind will diminish Tuesday and then remain calm until it begins picking up out of the north on Wednesday night.

We’ll be keeping an eye on the Colorado Low as it develops.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will cool to just a tad below seasonal values in the wake of the Colorado Low, but by the weekend temperatures are forecast to bounce right back to around the freezing mark. Combined with the increasingly strong sunshine, Winnipeg may just find itself entering the beginning of the spring melt!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.

Seasonal Temperatures And A Bit of Snow

Winnipeg will see near seasonal temperatures through the weekend with snow developing Saturday and tapering off Sunday.

The main weather system impacting Winnipeg over the next few days will be a large Colorado Low system moving through the Northern Plains. It will spread warmer air northwards into southern Manitoba today, finally bringing a near-seasonal high to Winnipeg. That warmer air moving into the region will also produce mixed skies today as cloud cover builds northwards. Temperatures will stay mild tonight with a low near -10°C and mostly cloudy skies.

Winnipeg will see snow build into the region on Saturday. Snow will spread northeastwards out of North Dakota into the Red River Valley midday. The city will see a near-seasonal high of -3°C and light winds. The snow will ease on Saturday night, leaving around 3-5 cm in Winnipeg with amounts of 5-10 cm to the south and east. Breezy northwesterly winds near up to 30 km/h will move into the region in the evening. Temperatures will dip to a low near -10°C.

GDPS 24hr. Snowfall Accumulation (10:1 SLR) valid 12Z Sunday March 10, 2019
Snow will spread across southeastern Manitoba on Saturday.

The cloud cover will stick around for Sunday with a continued chance for some light snow. Northwesterly winds near 30 km/h will keep temperatures cooler than Saturday with a high near -5°C. Skies will clear out on Sunday night with temperatures dipping back into the low minus teens.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will see a sunny day on Monday with near-seasonal temperatures, but the reprieve will be short-lived. Most guidance continues to forecast another major Colorado Low developing early in the week. Winnipeg would be under the influence of this system form Tuesday through Thursday, and it would bring the potential for a wintery mix of precipitation across the province. Snowfall may end up being a significant concern with this system; some models show the potential for a band of 20-30 cm of snow slicing across the Red River Valley. With flooding concerns mounting, a foot of heavy, wet March snow certainly wouldn’t help the situation.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.

Seasonal Temperatures on the Horizon

Winnipeg looks poised to break free of below-seasonal temperatures by the weekend. The city has seen seasonably cold temperatures entrenched over the region for much of February into the beginning of March.

Winnipeg will see fairly benign weather over the next few days as an Arctic high moves through the region. Be it cloudy periods today, mixed skies tomorrow, or increasing cloudiness on Friday, there will be cloud around through the remainder of the week.

Temperatures will be coldest today and tonight with highs and lows roughly 10°C below seasonal averages. The rest of the week will bring a gradual warming trend, reaching a high near -7°C on Friday. A few light flurries are possible over the next couple days, but forecasts show nothing of note.

Winds will be a bit breezy today out of the northwest at 20 to 30 km/h. The wind will then will diminish to calm as the Arctic high moves in tonight. Winds will remain calm or light out of the south for the remainder of the work week.

Long Range Outlook

The big shift in the weather will occur this weekend. A Colorado Low will push northeastwards through the American plains towards the Great Lakes. This system will bring some snow to the region, but the brunt of the storm will remain south of the border. The bigger impact of this storm will be how it shifts the large-scale pattern over North America.

As the Colorado Low pushes eastwards, it will finally dislodge the Polar Vortex from Hudson Bay. With the vortex gone, there will no longer be a persistent forcing of cold air southwards. This will allow seasonal temperatures to push into the region more frequently. The downside may be a more zonal pattern aloft. This pattern tends to result in more frequent disturbances moving through the region and chances for snow.

And while it’s still a long ways out, we have to mention that several models show the potential for a major winter storm next week. There’s no point in going into details, but we just want to note that some unpleasant winter weather may reappear for mid-March.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -4°C while the seasonal overnight low is -14°C.