Category: Forecasts

Sunny Skies, Cooler Temperatures, Build Into The Red River Valley

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After several days of cloudier conditions, Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will see the sun return for the second half of the week.

The low pressure system that brought a few showers to Winnipeg over the past couple days — although more notably a major winter storm to the southwestern Prairies — is finally making its way out of the region. The upper-level support will finish moving out of the province this morning with mostly cloudy skies giving way to afternoon clearing. Temperatures will climb to a high near 13°C this afternoon with winds picking up out of the southwest to around 30 km/h.

Temperatures will be quite cool tonight as a shot of Arctic air moves through the region. Under clear skies and diminishing winds, overnight lows will dip down to around the +1°C mark in Winnipeg, however that’s for most of the urban areas. At the edges of the city, as well as into the Red River Valley, overnight lows may dip down to the 0 to -2°C range. There will be a risk of frost throughout the region, including Winnipeg.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 12Z Thursday October 5, 2017
The Red River Valley will see a risk of frost early Thursday morning as temperatures dip near or below the freezing mark.

Thursday will bring mainly sunny skies to Winnipeg with light winds as a ridge of high pressure slumps through the southern Prairies. Temperatures will be near seasonal with highs climbing to around 13°C again in Winnipeg and overnight lows dipping back down to around the +3°C mark.

Friday will also bring sunny skies to the region with a light southerly wind developing in response to a low pressure system building into the far northern Prairies. Daytime highs will climb up to around 16°C as slightly warmer air pushes northwards, and overnight lows will follow suit dropping to only around 6°C.

Long Range

Conditions look fairly dry for the next while, although a more significant pattern change will move in for early next week. Temperatures look to climb into the upper teens on Saturday with breezy southerly winds, with a cold front then passing through on Saturday evening. At this point, the passage of the front looks dry, and will be followed by a second cold front moving through the region on Sunday night.

GDPS Forecast 500mb Height Anomaly valid 12Z Monday October 9, 2017
A large upper-level trough (shown in blues and purples) will develop over the Prairies early next week, bringing below-seasonal temperatures to the Prairies.

That will leave the Prairies underneath a large upper-trough for Thanksgiving Monday. Temperatures will be below normal with highs just in the upper single digits under cloudy skies with a breezy northwesterly wind and a chance of showers. The road to recovery will be slow, with temperatures gradually rebounding towards seasonal through the remainder of the week.

Another Chance of Showers As Fall Weather Continues

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Winnipeg will see temperatures return to near-seasonal values with a smattering of showers moving through the region; rather favourable conditions compared to the sub-freezing temperatures and snow building into Alberta!

The primary weather feature that will dominate over the next few days is a large low pressure system over central Saskatchewan. While this system will end up producing a wide swath of snow through Alberta into far southwestern Saskatchewan, things will remain more mild on the eastern side of the system with occasional rain the concern instead of a winter storm.

Today will bring some morning showers to Winnipeg as a shortwave lifts northwards out of the Dakotas. The rain should taper off by lunch, with a bit of sun poking out through the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near 16°C with light winds picking up out of the southwest to around 30 km/h. Clouds will begin working back into the region tonight as winds taper off and temperatures dip to a low near 6°C.

RDPS 12hr. QPF valid 00Z Monday October 3, 2017
Winnipeg will find itself once again on the western edge of rain moving northwards through the Red River Valley

Mostly cloudy skies will be in place for Winnipeg on Tuesday with a chance for some more showers. Temperatures will be cooler with a near-seasonal high of 13°C and winds will remain light. Expect a low near 5°C on Tuesday night with continued cloudy skies.

Things finally change on Wednesday as the remnants of the Alberta/Saskatchewan storm move out of the region. Skies will clear out of Winnipeg through the morning, leaving us with a fair amount of sunshine for the latter half of the day. Temperatures will once again reach a high near 13°C with winds out of the southwest at 20-30 km/h. Expect partly cloudy skies on Wednesday night as temperatures head to a low near +4°C.

Long Range

The remainder of the week looks to bring seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness. No significant rains are expected. Early indications are that Winnipeg may see another disturbance bring more rain to the region at the end of the weekend.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 14°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

Pleasant Weather Continues Through Beginning of Weekend

Brad 1 Comment

The generally mild and pleasant weather Winnipeg has seen the past couple days will continue for a few more, bringing sunshine and slightly above-normal temperatures until the next disturbance arrives in the region on Sunday.

Winnipeg is off to a chilly start today, courtesy a ridge of high pressure sitting right on top of the region that has plunged overnight lows to around the freezing mark. As the ridge moves off to the southeast today, temperatures will rebound back to seasonal values; Winnipeg should see a high near 15°C with light southerly winds and mainly sunny skies (outside of any fog that will burn off through the morning). The Red River Valley will see clear skies tonight with southerly winds increasing to 20-30 km/h by Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip to a low near 5°C in Winnipeg.

RDPS 2m Wind Forecast valid 00Z Sunday October 1, 2017
Breezy southerlies will develop as outflow from a large ridge of high pressure over Ontario is squeezed against an incoming low pressure system

Saturday will be a warm and windy day with southerly winds increasing to around 40 km/h as temperatures climb to a well above-seasonal high of 19 or 20°C. Skies will be sunny through the morning, but cloud will begin working into the region from the south later Saturday afternoon into the evening. There will be a slight chance of some showers as the low-level jet ramps up and brings some mid-level instability to the region. Temperatures will continue mild on Saturday night with a low near 13°C and breezy southerly winds continued.

NAM 12hr. QPF Forecast valid 03Z Monday October 2, 2017
Rain is possible across much of southern Manitoba on Sunday

Sunday will bring cloudy skies to the region as a low pressure system moves in from the west. Winds will continue out of the south-southeast at around 30 km/h and temperatures will be just a tad cooler than Saturday with highs near 17°C. Showers will be possible throughout much of the day, particularly in the afternoon and evening as a more organized area of rain lifts northwards out of the Dakotas. There will also be a slight chance of seeing a thunderstorm as there will be a low to moderate instability associated with this system. A chance of rain will continue on Sunday night as temperatures dip to a low near 10°C.

Long Range

Next week starts with a bit of a mixed bag; the unsettled weather will likely continue on Monday before improving in the evening, but another chance for rain looks to materialize on Tuesday afternoon. The rest of the week looks drier, but with sporadic chances for some light rain. Temperatures will continue near- to below-seasonal for much of the week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

The Sun Makes A Return

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After a streak of cloudy and wet weather which brought the most significant multi-day rainfall totals of 2017 to Winnipeg, the sun is finally set to return. Winnipeg will enjoy several relatively sunny days ahead with temperatures rebounding back towards seasonal values.

After seeing 65.1 mm of rain in the past 10 days, Winnipeg is poised to enjoy a few days to finish drying out1 as fairly benign weather returns to the region. Today will be quite a pleasant day; skies will start off sunny this morning and become more mixed in the afternoon with temperatures climbing to an above-seasonal high near 18°C. Winds will be light until a weak cold front passes through this afternoon, after which they’ll switch to the northwest at around 20-30 km/h for a few hours before diminishing near sunset. Skies will remain partly cloudy to mixed overnight with temperatures dipping to a low near 7°C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday September 27, 2017
Temperatures will climb into the upper teens this afternoon across southern Manitoba

Thursday’s main driver for the weather will be a large ridge of high pressure building southwards out of the Arctic. As it pushes towards the southern Manitoba, it will keep winds out of the north at 20-30 km/h with slightly cooler temperatures in place as highs climb to a seasonal 16°C. Skies will remain partly cloudy much of the day. Thursday night will be a cool one as the high pressure centre moves across Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will dip to a low near 2°C with patchy frost an outside chance, but it looks relatively likely (for now) that extensive fog development may occur through the night, which would likely keep lows above the freezing mark. That said, it’ll certainly be cool, so if you have temperature-sensitive plans, probably best to take care of them before Thursday night.

GDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Friday September 29, 2017
The GDPS suggests a patchy freeze will be possible on Friday morning

Friday will bring mainly sunny skies to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, outside of any fog that may be in the region in the morning. As the high pressure system moves off to the southeast, it will bring southerly winds at around 10-20 km/h as temperatures climb to a high near 16°C again. Temperatures will dip to a low near 8°C on Friday night with winds increasing out of the south to 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

Warmer, but windy, weather will move into the Red River Valley on Saturday with daytime highs climbing towards the 20°C mark as an upper ridge pushes into the eastern Prairies. Conditions begin turning on Sunday as another significant low pressure system moves towards the region. During the day on Sunday will likely be mild, although cloudy, with breezy southeasterly winds. At some point, there will be a more organized chance for rain; likely on Sunday night into Monday morning, but it could easily shift by 12 hours between now and then.

The work week will start off with seasonal temperatures and some lingering unsettled weather until things clear up mid-week again.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.

  1. And perhaps letting the grass grow long enough to need to be cut again… ↩