Category: Forecasts

Get The Sunscreen Out: Summer’s Back

Brad 1 Comment

Here comes the shortest forecast we’ve written in a while: summer is making a big comeback in Winnipeg as the forecast — both short and long-range — holds practically nothing but sunshine and warm temperatures.

Winnipeg will see a trio of beautiful days ahead as two features keep skies clear and slowly warm things up. The first is an upper-level ridge over Manitoba and the second is a high pressure system in Ontario that continues to exert its influence over southern Manitoba. These two features combined together will keep things sunny, and as the surface high slowly moves off to the southeast, temperatures will climb back into summer-like values.

500mb Winds with Jet Stream Annotation valid 15Z Friday September 8, 2017
The jet stream lifts far to the north of Winnipeg, creating an upper-level ridge that is producing clear skies over the eastern Prairies.

So both today and Saturday will bring nothing but sunshine to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley with high temperatures of 23°C today and 26°C on Saturday. Winds will be out of the south both days, to around 20-30 km/h today and 30-40 km/h on Saturday. Expect lows near 9°C tonight and near 15°C on Saturday night.

We could see a few clouds on Sunday morning, but overall the day should be fairly sunny. The only fly in the ointment could be a thick layer of smoke spreading in from the west. Temperatures may reach as warm as 30°C, but if there ends up being a lot of smoke it could be a few degrees cooler than that. Winds will continue out of the south at around 30 km/h. A cold front will swing through on Sunday night, bringing some clouds and a chance of showers to the region, however no significant rain is expected with the passage of the front.

Long Range

Monday looks to bring mixed skies and lighter winds in the wake of the cold front with temperatures slightly cooler than Sunday. Things then clear out for Tuesday and temperatures continue to remain above-normal through mid-week. A disturbance developing over the Prairies on Wednesday into Thursday will then likely begin bringing more seasonal temperatures, increased cloud, and a chance of showers back to the Red River Valley for the end of the week.

The biggest question mark will be how much smoke ends up in the region, though. With westerly winds, a fair amount of the B.C. forest fire smoke may end up making its way here, and early indications are that there is the potential for it to be the most significant smoke event for Winnipeg so far this year. We’ll be keeping an eye on it!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7C.

Warm and Dry Weather on the Horizon

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An upper-level ridge building into the Prairies will spread significantly warmer-than-seasonal temperatures back into the region while keeping the rain well away.

Winnipeg has quite the stretch of warm, dry weather ahead as an upper level ridge builds eastwards through Alberta and into the eastern Prairies over the next couple days. That said, it makes for a pretty short forecast.

Today will bring mixed skies as some cloud moves into the region associated with the warmer air moving in aloft. Winds will be light and temperatures will head to a high near 21°C. Clouds will stick around through the night as temperatures head to a low near 10°C.

Thursday will bring partly-cloudy skies to Winnipeg with a high around 22°C and a light northeast wind. The clouds should clear out by the evening and then temperatures head to a low near 8°C.

And for Friday, nothing but sunshine as highs climb to around the 23°C mark as winds pick up to around 15-20 km/h out of the south. Expect a low near 12°C on Friday night under clear skies.

Long Range

The warmth intensifies on the weekend with highs in Winnipeg climbing into the upper 20’s with a slight chance of even seeing a 30°C reading on Sunday. A cold front will move through on Sunday evening bringing a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but then things go right back to sunny with warmer-than-seasonal temperatures continuing!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 8C.

Labour Day Brings Windy, Cool Conditions and Chance of Showers

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The passage of a cold front this morning will usher in strong northerly winds and bring scattered showers to the Red River Valley as a blast of Arctic-sourced air spills southwards into the region. The cool conditions will stick around for the first half the week, but temperatures are set to soar again heading into the weekend!

There’s no getting around it: today is going to feel positively fall-like as a cold front moves through this morning and blasts Winnipeg and the Red River Valley with winds of 40-50 km/h and gusts up to 70 km/h as a surge of Arctic air spreads southwards in its wake. Temperatures will reach a high of just 19°C today under mixed skies with widespread showers as an upper-level trough swings through behind the front.

With such strong winds in the region, if any thunderstorms manage to develop, they will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h. Additionally, marginally severe hail1 is possible due to very low freezing levels, but larger quantities of small hail would be more likely from any thunderstorms that could manage to develop today.

RPDS 10m Wind Speed Forecast valid 21Z Monday September 4, 2017
Strong winds (pink) will be in place over the Red River Valley Monday afternoon.

Winds will ease tonight as temperatures head to a low around 9°C under partly cloudy skies. Tuesday will continue to be windy out of the north to northwest at 30-40 km/h with gusts up to around the 50 km/h range, but skies will be sunnier and no rain is expected. Temperatures will be similar to Monday with highs around 19°C. Tuesday night will be quite chilly as temperatures dip to a low near 5°C or so as a large ridge of high pressure moves into the region.

Wednesday will mark the start of a turnaround back towards positively summer-like heat. Winds will be light out of the west under mainly sunny skies as temperatures climb to a high of 21°C. While it’s not a huge improvement from Tuesday’s temperatures, it marks the departure of the large ridge of high pressure bringing the cool temperatures as it slumps off to the south. In its absence, the upper-level ridge that is bringing very warm temperatures to western Canada will begin to work its way across the Prairies.

Long Range

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid September 11-18, 2107
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid September 11-18, 2107

Temperatures are set to soar through the latter half of the week with highs in the upper 20’s on Thursday and Friday, then potentially reaching the 30°C mark on the weekend. Temperatures are then expected to remain above-normal through the remainder of next week. Additionally, there’s essentially no chance for rain from Thursday onwards through next week in current forecasts as persistent upper-level ridging shifts the storm track well to our north.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 21°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9C.

  1. EC³ condensers severe hail to be the size of a nickel (21mm) in diameter or larger. ↩

Showers on Friday, Long Range Shifts To A Nicer Outlook

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A low pressure system and cold front moving through Manitoba today will bring morning showers or thunderstorms to the Red River Valley and a follow-up chance for rain this afternoon. Once this system clears out, there’s good news ahead as the long-range forecast has shifted to a more optimistic outlook!

To start Friday off Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will see cloudy skies with a good chance of showers as a line of precipitation moves into the region from the west. That line should be through by 8 or 9AM, and then Winnipeg will be left with cloudy skies and a breezy southerly wind near 30 gusting to 50 km/h as temperatures climb towards a high near 24°C. Then, around 2-3 PM, the threat for thunderstorms will redevelop — primarily for Winnipeg south to the US border and areas east — as a cold front moves across the region. Strong thunderstorms are likely with this front with the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms. The main threat with this afternoon’s thunderstorms will be large hail between the size of nickels and loonies alongside gusty winds. Things will calm down this evening as the wind swings around to the northwest and temperatures head to a low near 13°C.

PASPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook valid September 1, 2017
The PASPC Thunderstorm Outlook highlights well where severe thunderstorms are possible today.

Late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, it appears a weak disturbance will roll through the region. It will mainly bring a bit of cloud to the region but there will be a small chance of some early morning showers on Saturday. Once it moves out, though, Winnipeg will be set for a beautiful day as weak ridging moves into the area, bringing mainly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid-20’s.

GDPS Surface Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday September 3, 2017 with annotations
A low pressure system passing through Manitoba on Sunday will bring warm temperatures to the Red River Valley

Another low pressure system is then forecast to move across the Interlake on Sunday, drawing very warm air eastwards and pushing daytime highs up in into the low 30’s. Winds will be breezy out of the south at 30-40 km/h, and Winnipeg can expect partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will then dip back to around 13°C again on Sunday night with a breezy northwesterly wind.

Long Range

The long-range forecast is looking much better than it appeared it would be earlier this week! While a potent shot of cold air is expected to slide southwards behind Sunday’s system, dropping high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday into the upper teens, the cool weather is now expected to be short-lived. Instead of being stuck on the edge of a large upper-level trough as an upper-level ridge sits over BC, models have moved towards a more progressive pattern, allowing the ridge to push eastwards relatively quickly. This means a return to seasonal temperatures by mid-week instead of week’s end.

Otherwise, fairly quiet weather on tap for next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 21°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9C.