Category: Forecasts

Last Major Arctic Outbreak of the Winter?

Scott Leave a comment

This week will start out with what could be our last arctic outbreak of the winter. Temperatures will remain below seasonal for most of this week, but it appears spring may not be too far away.

Today will be the coldest day of the week, as high temperatures will be stuck in the upper minus teens. An arctic high pressure system sliding down from the north will be responsible for this cold air mass. The outflow from this high will be breezy from the north-west, pushing wind chill values near the -30 mark for much of the day. On the brighter side, it will be sunny, so at least there’s that (pun fully intended by the way)!

An arctic high pressure system will dominate our weather early this week
An arctic high pressure system will dominate our weather early this week

Tuesday will see slightly warmer temperatures from today as highs climb into the low minus teens. Skies should remain mainly sunny with lighter westerly winds. The arctic high from Monday will still be hovering around the region, preventing warmer air from pushing in.

Wednesday will be much the same as Tuesday, with high temperatures in the low minus teens and mainly sunny skies. Another arctic high will push down from the north and sit off to our north-east. This should bring north-easterly winds to southern Manitoba, with speeds near 20 km/h.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests that we should begin to see a shift towards above seasonal weather starting in about a week’s time. Models are beginning to strongly indicate that spring-like conditions will build into southern Manitoba sometime around March 5-8 and last into mid-month. Given the time of year, this warm-up should be accompanied by some decent snow-melt. There isn’t much snow to our south and west, so be prepared for a rapid transition to spring once this warmer pattern arrives!

Mild Weather Continues Through The Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Above-seasonal temperatures will continue through to the end of the weekend in Winnipeg and the Red River Valley thanks to a continued flow of mild air sourced from the Pacific. Some light snow will be possible Saturday night and into Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the region and brings cooler temperatures to start off next week.

Sunny skies will help temperatures climb to a balmy +1°C this afternoon as mild air spreads eastwards across the province. Winds will remain relatively light out of the southwest at 10-20 km/h. Other than that, there isn’t much to say about today! Enjoy it!

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with southwest winds gradually tapering off and temperatures dipping to just -4°C[1].

Saturday will be another mild day with a daytime high near 0°C. Winds will be very light through much of the day before gradually picking up out of the north later in the afternoon through the evening. The day will start off mainly sunny, but through the afternoon cloud cover will spread southwards as the northerly winds pick up. As the cloud moves in, there will be a slight chance of some flurries, but more organized snowfall will not likely move into the region until the evening.

RDPS 12hr. QPF valid 12Z Sunday February 28, 2016
A low pressure system will bring snow across Mantioba on Saturday night

Snow will fall through much of Saturday night, although accumulations aren’t expected to be particularly significant; 2-3 cm are possible in Winnipeg & the northern Red River Valley, while less than 2 cm is expected through most areas in the Red River Valley south of the Trans-Canada Highway. Temperatures will dip to an overnight low near -12°C with those north winds blowing at 20-30 km/h.

Sunday will be a cloudy day with the northerly winds tapering off and a high near -5°C[2]. A chance of flurries will persist through Winnipeg & the Red River Valley for much of Sunday.

A second chance for more organized snow will return on Sunday night as the next low pressure system moves across the province ahead of another push of cooler air. This system will bring the chance for 2-4 cm of snow across much of the Red River Valley, alongside gusty northerly winds and plummeting temperatures. As the snow moves through, temperatures will fall towards an overnight low near -17°C.

Long Range: Another Brief Cold Snap

Monday will see any remaining snow clear out of Manitoba. Temperatures are a little tricky; depending on the exact timing of Sunday night’s system, temperatures will either see a high in mid-minus teens or fall through the day. Either way, colder air is on the way in and below-normal temperatures are expected for Monday and Tuesday in the wake of Sunday night’s low.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 4 to March 11, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 4 to March 11, 2016

Heading into mid-week, though, it appears temperatures will quickly trend back towards seasonal values. Little-to-no precipitation is expected through this period. By the end of the week, above normal temperatures are likely to be back in place. Overall, as shown in the NAEFS forecast above, that our below and above normal temperatures next week will lead to an overall near-seasonal temperature regime for the long-range.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -16°C.

  1. A low of -4°C is still 2°C above the seasonal daytime high for this time of year!  ↩
  2. There’s some disagreement between models on the positioning of the incoming air mass behind Saturday’s system. There’s a chance that Sunday could be colder with daytime highs closer to -10°C.  ↩

Mild Weather Continues Through The Week

Brad Leave a comment

Mild weather will continue through the remainder of the week with daytime highs generally 3-6°C above normal for the latter half of February. With limited snow and some sunshine expected, it’s shaping up to be a fairly pleasant few days.

Cloudy skies will be in place over the Red River Valley today as a weak low pressure system slides across the region. Alongside the cloud will be some light flurry activity that’s just enough to be noticeable, but hardly enough to actually leave much of a mark. Winds will be fairly light out of the north-northwest at just 10-15 km/h with temperatures climbing to a high of -2°C. Skies will clear overnight as a weak cold front slumps through Southern Manitoba; temperatures will dip down to around the -11°C mark for the overnight low.

Thursday will be a slightly cooler day as a weak ridge of high pressure moves through the province behind Wednesday’s cold front. It will be a pleasant day, though, with a high temperature near -7°C, light winds and partly cloudy skies. Clouds will thicken up over the Red River Valley by Thursday night as a low pressure system approaches from the northwest.

GDPS Surface Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Saturday February 27, 2016
The GDPS is forecasting near-0°C temperatures for Southern Manitoba on Friday.

Friday’s weather will be very mild as a low pressure system crossing central Manitoba spreads mild air eastwards over the southern half of the province. Westerly winds of 15-25 km/h will push temperatures up to the -2 to 0°C range here in the Red River Valley. Skies will be mainly cloudy with no precipitation expected through the day. A cold front will slump through the region on Friday evening, bringing some scattered flurries and cooler temperatures. Overnight winds will shift out of the north to 20-30 km/h and temperatures will dip to about -9°C by Saturday morning.

Long Range: Cooler & Unsettled

Heading into the weekend, there’s positive agreement that we’ll be heading for cooler temperatures as Arctic air filters southwards. A few flurries may stick around for Saturday morning before the skies clear out. How cold it gets will be largely determined by how a system expected to track through on Sunday develops; some models bring it through Manitoba, keeping temperatures closer to seasonal values and spreading some light snow across the province, while others keep it to the south, giving us clear, cool weather.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 2 to March 9, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 2 to March 9, 2016

After that it looks like the weather will be relatively quiet with a gradual return towards seasonal temperatures. This is reflected in the NAEFS 8-14 day outlook which shows the above-seasonal temperatures collapsed westwards towards the more prominent west coast upper ridge. Manitoba’s pattern is forecast to be generally northwest, but with multiple shortwaves moving through over the 6-12 day time-frame. This would translate to variable temperatures as we see warmer than normal temperatures as disturbances roll through and then cooler than normal temperatures behind these systems.

All in all, much like we’ve been seeing lately! We’ve hit the point now, though, where we can be happy with near-normal temperatures since normal daytime highs continue to gradually march towards 0°C!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -16°C.

Mild Weather Early This Week

Scott Leave a comment

This week will start out mild, with temperatures just below the freezing mark. However, colder weather appears to be on the way for the weekend.

Today will be mainly cloudy with some flurry activity. A low pressure system to our north will push southward during the day, ushering in this light snowfall. We’ll be in the warm sector of this low pressure system, allowing us to experience mild temperatures just below the freezing mark. Winds will also be light, making for a generally nice day.

Southern Manitoba will be in the warm sector on Monday
Southern Manitoba will be in the warm sector on Monday

Tuesday will remain mild, although temperatures will dip slightly in the northerly flow behind Monday’s system. A few flurries may persist on Tuesday, though no significant accumulations are expected. Winds will be breezy from the north at 20-30km/h.

Wednesday will see the continuation of mainly cloudy, but mild conditions. Temperatures will remain just below the freezing mark with flurries likely again. Winds will be light however, making for a grey, but generally decent day.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests that mild weather will stick around through the remainder of the work-week. However, it appears another arctic blast is on tap for the weekend, bringing temperatures well below normal. Models suggest that this arctic air mass will stick around into next week, although it will be tough for extreme cold conditions to persist as we push into March.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.