Cold Continues Through Weekend

The cold weather plaguing southern Manitoba will continue through the weekend as yet more bitterly cold Arctic air spills southwards. There’s some hope on the horizon that we’ll see temperatures skyrocketing above normal, albeit briefly, so read on to find out what to expect!

Friday

Friday

-24°C / -26°C
Mixed skies and cold with a chance of flurries.

Today will be a very cold day here in Winnipeg; a building Arctic ridge on the north side of a moderately strong baroclinic zone[1] will keep Winnipeg on the cold side of things and bring us one of our coldest days so far: our daytime high will only climb to around –24°C under mixed skies. There may be a slight chance of a flurry, but overall things look to be setting up even a bit further southwest than it appeared on Wednesday and the accumulating snow looks to have shifted out of the Red River Valley. This is not entirely unexpected; when strong Arctic air masses are in place, the models often give the warmer air far too much credit and push things further north than they ought to be. Unfortunately, they don’t always do that so it’s a little touch and go on figuring out whether or not the precipitation tracks are right in the long range.

Skies will become cloudy overnight as the temperature drops to around –26°C and we’ll see a chance of flurries through the night.

Saturday

Saturday

-24°C / -29°C
Cloudy; flurries likely. Clearing overnight.

Saturday will bring cold weather, cloudy skies and a continued chance of flurries. The temperature will once again only climb to around –24°C as we continue to be under the influence of this cold Arctic air. Flurries will persist through almost the entirety of Southern Manitoba as an upper trough slides across the region. We’ll drop to around –28 or –29°C on Saturday night under clearing skies.

Sunday

Sunday

-20°C / ↗ -5°C
Increasing cloud then light snow. Significant warming overnight.

Sunday will be comparable to the last week or so; skies will be mainly sunny until we see some increased cloudiness in the afternoon as some light snow moves into the region associated with a warm front pushing eastwards across the Prairies. We’ll climb to a high of around –20°C. There will be a slight chance of flurries on Sunday night, but we’ll likely just see a stiff wind out of the south as the temperature climbs climbs climbs up into the minus single-digits!

Next Week

At this point, the first half of next week looks quite warm, with daytime highs climbing towards –2 or –3°C. Little precipitation is expected. Unfortunately, and I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it looks like another brutal cold snap will move in for the end of the week, and at this point it looks like it will be (possible significantly) colder than we’ve seen the past week.

So to make it short: get out there and enjoy the weather through the first half of next week!


  1. A baroclinic zone is an area of heightened temperature contrast; similar to a warm front or cold front but without the significant movement that those features have.  ↩

Deep Freeze Continues

Bitterly cold Arctic air will remain entrenched over Southern Manitoba for the remainder of the week and through the weekend as nothing seems to be able to disrupt the pipeline of cold air flowing down over the Prairies. We will likely see some snow on Friday and Saturday as a low pressure system rides along the leading edge of a reinforcing shot of Arctic air which will ensure longevity to our December deep freeze.

Wednesday

-22°C / -28°C
Sunny and cold.
Thursday

-20°C / -27°C
Increasing cloud.
Friday

-23°C / -26°C
Cold with some light snow.

We’ll see sunny skies today with a light westerly wind as a ridge of high pressure slides to our south. The sunny skies are, unfortunately, symptomatic of the very cold air that will be in place today; our daytime high will only climb to around –22°C with wind chill values near –40 this morning that will ease slightly into the afternoon. We’ll drop to around –28°C tonight with just a few clouds.

Tomorrow will manage to climb a couple degrees higher than today with a high near or just under –20°C, largely thanks to the cloud coverage that will increase through the day. This may seem backwards since it would seem to make sense that blocking out the sun would make it cooler, however at this time of year the heat provided by the sun is so meagre that cloud coverage can often warm things up by both giving off some heat that works it’s way down to the ground as well as preventing any more heat from leaving the surface. In the winter time, think of cloud cover as a big blanket. Skies will be cloudy by the end of the day and light snow will begin to push into the province tonight beginning in the Parkland and spreading southeast through the night.

Friday

Friday will see light snow over much of Southern Manitoba as a mid-level baroclinic zone[1] tightens up over the region. At this point, it appears that most of the snow will fall to the west and south of Winnipeg, but we should still see some light snow along the northern edge of this system. Temperatures will remain cold; here in Winnipeg the daytime high is only expected to be around –23°C or so.

Total snowfall expected at this point for this coming Friday. Little of any significance is forecast to fall in the Red River Valley.
Total snowfall expected at this point for this coming Friday. Little of any significance is forecast to fall in the Red River Valley.

As shown above, no significant amounts are expected with this system as it moves through; a few cm are possible through the western and south-central Red River Valley while most other places just see a light dusting. The snow will taper off to some flurry activity in the evening as we drop to around –26°C under cloudy skies.

The Weekend

At this point, it looks like Saturday and Sunday both remain quite cold with daytime highs not even reaching –20°C and overnight lows plummeting towards –30°C. Flurries will be around for the first half of the day on Saturday before clearing out and leaving us with clear skies through the remainder of the day and Sunday. It appears some light snow is possible again on Monday as a warm front pushes across the Prairies. I’m not convinced quite yet that we’ll see that 10°C jump in daytime highs currently advertised, but significantly warmer air does look to be on the way (for a short while, at least) early next week.


  1. A baroclinic zone is an area of heightened temperature contrast; similar to a warm front or cold front but without the significant movement that those features have.  ↩

Cold Weather is Going Nowhere Fast!

More cold weather is in store for this week – I bet that’s just what you were hoping to hear!

Wind Chill Values on Monday Morning

Monday

Monday

Increasing Cloudiness Late
-21°C / -26°C

Today will be another frigid day in Southern Manitoba. Morning temperatures will be close to the -30C mark, with the wind chill making it feel closer to -40 in many areas. Afternoon temperatures won’t moderate much, with highs only reaching into the low minus twenties. There will remain a bit of a breeze through the afternoon hours, generating a wind chill that will make it feel worse than the temperature alone would indicate.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly Sunny
-20°C / -30°C

Tuesday morning will be a bit warmer than Monday morning, as some cloud cover helps to keep the temperature from bottoming out. However, it won’t be a warm day in general, as the temperature hovers near -20C and the wind chill makes it feel more like the minus thirties.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly Sunny
-22°C / -25°C

Guess what, Wednesday will be cold too! Wednesday morning could be one of the coldest of the week, as temperatures drop to around or below -30C. Wind chill values on Wednesday morning will be -40 or colder, making it feel even worse. You may want to ensure your block heat is working and you’ve got an extension cord in your car, this week is not going to get much better from here…

Long Range

There is no immediate end to this cold snap in sight. Models hint that we may see a bit of a warm-up around December 15, but that is far from a certainty. At least that model forecast offers a bit of hope that we may see a break from this cold weather at some point.

Arctic Chill Settles In

This weekend will be marked by bitterly cold temperatures as an Arctic high builds into the Prairies, bringing with it the coldest temperatures we’ve seen so far this winter.

Friday

-18°C / -26°C
Mainly cloudy with some scattered flurries.
Saturday

-22°C / -28°C
Gradual clearing through the afternoon.
Sunday

-21°C / -27°C
A mix of sun and cloud with a chance of flurries.

We’ll see mainly cloudy skies today as the remnants of this weeks winter storm still hang back a while longer. Some light flurry activity will likely slump down from the Interlake by midday brining some light, non-accumulating flurries to most of the Red River Valley. There will be a brisk northwesterly wind at around 20–30km/h today which, when coupled with a high of only around –18°C, will make it feel closer to the –25 to –30 range. The clouds will stick around through the night with perhaps a clear break or two and we’ll drop to an overnight low of about –26°C.

Saturday will start off with mainly cloudy skies and we’ll climb to a high of –22°C. Skies will begin to clear through the afternoon and we’ll be left with mainly clear skies for tomorrow night as we dip down to around –28°C for an overnight low. Winds will be relatively light at 15–25km/h out of the west.

Sunday will bring mixed skies as Winnipeg sits between a system tracking through the Northern Plains and another system sliding down into Southern Manitoba from the northwest. We’ll see a chance of some light flurries through the day, but at this point no significant snowfall is expected. Temperatures will top out around –22°C, however the winds will be increasing out of the south as a return flow develops on the back-side of the Arctic high. This will make things feel quite cool with wind chill values dropping down to as low as the –30 to –35 range. It will be a generally unpleasant day. The risk for flurries will continue through Sunday night as temperatures down to around –28°C.