Category: Forecasts

Unseasonably Cold

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Southern Manitoba has a long stretch of benign, significantly cooler than normal[1] weather ahead as a large upper-level low entrenches itself over Hudson Bay.

Monday
-16°C / -25°C
Chance of a morning flurry, otherwise mainly sunny.

Tuesday
-21°C / -25°C
Mainly Sunny

Wednesday
-15°C / -31°C
Chance of a morning flurry, then clearing.

A large storm that pushed up through the eastern United States late last week has stalled out over Hudson Bay and is all set to make things miserable for us over the next couple weeks. Temperatures won’t be quite so bad to start the week thanks to a somewhat disorganized upper-level flow over the Eastern Prairies, but things will go from “disappointing” to “cabin fever” mid -week as a pipeline of Arctic air sets up and daytime highs plummet back below -20°C.[2]

The 500mb flow will organize as the week progresses and allow colder air to push into the province.
The 500mb flow will organize as the week progresses and allow colder air to push into the province.

There will be a slight chance of a flurry this morning as some of the last remaining cloud clears out from the Red River Valley and then we’ll see mainly sunny skies through most of the day as the temperature climbs up to around -16°C. The wind should be a little lighter than the past few days out of the west/northwest at 20-30km/h. Temperatures will drop to around -25°C tonight under clear skies.

Tuesday will bring colder weather with a high only around -21 or -20°C under mainly sunny skies and with breezy winds at 30-40km/h out of the northwest. Temperatures will drop to around -25°C overnight with some cloud pushing into the Red River Valley as a weak low pressure system approaches from the north. We’ll see a slight chance of flurries late overnight into Wednesday morning before the cloud clears out and we’re left with mainly sunny skies. Winds will start off relatively light but increase to north/northwesterly at 30-40km/h again once the cold front passes through. Temperatures will dip down to around -31°C on Wednesday night under clear skies.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook.
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook.

Things look to remain cold for the foreseeable future with below-normal temperatures being forecast by the NAEFS all the way to two weeks out. In addition to the cool temperatures, things should be fairly benign weather-wise with no significant storm systems in the near future. It looks like there may be a couple cm of light snow on Friday as a weak inverted trough slides across Southern Manitoba, so we’ll keep an eye on that and how things develop. No big storms on the horizon, so just bundle up and enjoy the sunshine!

  1. Seasonal daytime highs for mid-February are -6°C and seasonal overnight lows are -16°C.  ↩
  2. Some 15°C below normal!  ↩

Winter Returns

Brad Leave a comment

Well, it was nice while it lasted. Get settled in for another long stretch of below-normal temperatures.

Friday
-14°C / -20°C
Windy with local blowing snow; chance of flurries.

Saturday
-14°C / -21°C
Breezy with mixed skies.

Sunday
-17°C / -23°C
Mainly sunny.

Today will be the most unpleasant day of the week with strong northwesterly winds at 40-50km/h making our high of -14°C feel more like the mid-minus-twenties and producing local blowing snow through the Red River Valley. Winnipeg will see mixed skies which will work in tandem the low-level temperature profile to produce a chance of some scattered light flurry activity. The strong winds will persist into the evening and slightly ease overnight as we head to a low of about -20°C.

Saturday will bring mixed skies once again with a high near -14°C. Winds will be lighter than today, but still fairly breezy at 20-30km/h. Skies will clear late in the day as we head to an overnight low near -21°C.

Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and a cooler high of only around -17°C[1]. The winds will be relatively light and we’ll drop down to about -23°C Sunday night.

Winter Returns

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

The immense low pressure system that is pushing northwards through the eastern half of Canada will end up re-establishing a large, cut-off low pressure system over Hudson Bay that will lock the Eastern Prairies into a strong north/northwesterly flow. This will work to entrench an Arctic air mass over the region which will result in below-normal temperatures at least until the end of February.

At this point, it looks like it may not be until the second week of March until the icy grip loses it’s hold over the region, but that’s a long way off and I don’t put a lot of faith in those sorts of forecasts. Safe to say we’re going to see another stretch of relatively dry, cool weather through the end of the month.

  1. This is around 10°C below our seasonal daytime high of -7°C for this time of year.  ↩

Unsettled End to the Week

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Temperatures will slowly return to slightly below-seasonal values through the remainder of the week as unsettled weather pushes into the Red River Valley. While the main weather focus will remain further east as a significant low pressure system lifts through Central Ontario, the storm will have a broad reach spanning all the way from the Maritimes to Southern Manitoba.

This forecast precipitation panel from the GDPS shows the significant extent of this week's develping storm.
This forecast precipitation panel from the GDPS shows the significant extent of this week’s develping storm.

One More Mild Day

Wednesday
-4°C / -9°C
Increasing cloud; mild. Snow overnight.

Today will bring another fairly nice day a westerly flow aloft continues spreading warm air into Southern Manitoba. Temperatures should climb up to around -4°C with relatively light southeasterly winds. Cloud coverage will increase through the day as a trough of low pressure works it’s way towards the Red River Valley, bringing with it another batch of snow and the beginning of of our transition back towards seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures.

As the cloud pushes in, so too will the snow. Initially, the snow will spread into the Parkland region of the province – through Dauphin and down towards Minnedosa – before pushing eastwards into the Interlake. As the system tracks east, it will do it’s best to develop some light snow over the Red River Valley as a low-level jet ramps up and lifts over the warm front stationed in North Dakota. It’s still too early to say exactly how this is going to shape out: the location and intensity of the precipitation will have a lot to do with the exact track & timing of the system. If things line up right, we may see a band of moderate snow track across the RRV fairly early in the evening, but just as likely is that the LLJ doesn’t really get precipitation going until it’s further east into Minnesota, which could drastically reduce snowfall expectations depending on how much of that is able to wrap all the way around the low back into the Red River Valley.

Snowy Thursday

Thursday
⇒ -9°C / -15°C
Periods of light snow; 3-6cm accumulation.

Thursday looks to bring more snow Southern Manitoba as Wednesday’s system is absorbed into a much larger storm lifting northwards through Central Ontario. As a notable aside, this storm is absolutely massive, stretching from Manitoba all the way to the Maritimes and from Quebec all the way southwards to Florida.

The inherent uncertainty of both track and timing makes snowfall totals quite difficult. The highest confidence is for snow through the Parkland into the Southern Interlake and east. A combination of strong lift and a decent deformation zone look to produce a band of snow with totals from around 5-10cm. Assuming the currently forecast track of the system, we would then see around 3-6cm of snow through the northern Red River Valley – including Winnipeg – and 1-3cm or less through the southern Red River Valley.

Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday as a northwesterly wind keeps temperatures steady near -9°C. Temperatures will dip to around -15°C tomorrow night under mainly cloudy skies with a chance of a few flurries.

Cool Weekend Ahead

Friday
-13°C / -20°C
Mixed sky; chance of flurries.

Friday continues the cool trend with temperatures only recovering a degree or two – to around -13°C – while moderate northwesterly winds continue to make things unpleasant. There will be a slight chance of flurries through the day under mixed skies, but things should clear out on Friday night as we head to a low near -20°C.

The weekend will bring more cool temperatures as daytime highs slump towards -17 or 18°C under sunny skies by Sunday and overnight lows dropping below -20°C in the overnight periods.

Warm Weather!

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This week will feature some of the warmest weather we’ve seen in a long time – it’s about time!

A warming trend will occur across southern Manitoba on Monday

A warming trend will occur across southern Manitoba on Monday

Early Week

Monday
-2°C / -10°C
Mainly Sunny
Tuesday
0°C / -14°C
Mainly Sunny
Wednesday
-1°C / -7°C
Increasing Cloudiness. Chance of Flurries Late.

Today will see temperatures climb up towards the freezing mark in southern Manitoba. That will make for messy roads, but that’s the price you have to pay for warmer weather. The wind will be light and from the west to south-east, making for a great day.

Tuesday will be very similar to Monday, with temperatures once again near zero. There will be a breezy west wind, but otherwise it will be a very nice day.

Wednesday looks to remain seasonably warm, with high temperatures once again, you guessed it, near zero. However, a low pressure system will move towards the region on Wednesday, bringing increasing clouds and a chance for flurries by late in the day. Thankfully, major snow accumulations are not currently expected with this system.

Long Range

That low pressure system from Wednesday will pull down another cold airmass for the late week period. As a result, long-range models suggest we’ll see a colder pattern lasting at least through next weekend.