Temperatures will slowly return to slightly below-seasonal values through the remainder of the week as unsettled weather pushes into the Red River Valley. While the main weather focus will remain further east as a significant low pressure system lifts through Central Ontario, the storm will have a broad reach spanning all the way from the Maritimes to Southern Manitoba.
One More Mild Day
Today will bring another fairly nice day a westerly flow aloft continues spreading warm air into Southern Manitoba. Temperatures should climb up to around -4°C with relatively light southeasterly winds. Cloud coverage will increase through the day as a trough of low pressure works it’s way towards the Red River Valley, bringing with it another batch of snow and the beginning of of our transition back towards seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures.
As the cloud pushes in, so too will the snow. Initially, the snow will spread into the Parkland region of the province – through Dauphin and down towards Minnedosa – before pushing eastwards into the Interlake. As the system tracks east, it will do it’s best to develop some light snow over the Red River Valley as a low-level jet ramps up and lifts over the warm front stationed in North Dakota. It’s still too early to say exactly how this is going to shape out: the location and intensity of the precipitation will have a lot to do with the exact track & timing of the system. If things line up right, we may see a band of moderate snow track across the RRV fairly early in the evening, but just as likely is that the LLJ doesn’t really get precipitation going until it’s further east into Minnesota, which could drastically reduce snowfall expectations depending on how much of that is able to wrap all the way around the low back into the Red River Valley.
Thursday looks to bring more snow Southern Manitoba as Wednesday’s system is absorbed into a much larger storm lifting northwards through Central Ontario. As a notable aside, this storm is absolutely massive, stretching from Manitoba all the way to the Maritimes and from Quebec all the way southwards to Florida.
The inherent uncertainty of both track and timing makes snowfall totals quite difficult. The highest confidence is for snow through the Parkland into the Southern Interlake and east. A combination of strong lift and a decent deformation zone look to produce a band of snow with totals from around 5-10cm. Assuming the currently forecast track of the system, we would then see around 3-6cm of snow through the northern Red River Valley – including Winnipeg – and 1-3cm or less through the southern Red River Valley.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday as a northwesterly wind keeps temperatures steady near -9°C. Temperatures will dip to around -15°C tomorrow night under mainly cloudy skies with a chance of a few flurries.
Cool Weekend Ahead
Friday continues the cool trend with temperatures only recovering a degree or two – to around -13°C – while moderate northwesterly winds continue to make things unpleasant. There will be a slight chance of flurries through the day under mixed skies, but things should clear out on Friday night as we head to a low near -20°C.
The weekend will bring more cool temperatures as daytime highs slump towards -17 or 18°C under sunny skies by Sunday and overnight lows dropping below -20°C in the overnight periods.