Category: Forecasts

More of the Same

Brad Leave a comment

This week will feature more of the same cold weather we’ve seen lately. I’m sure you’re about as enthused to read that as I was to write it.

Early Week Outlook

Monday
-15°C / -30°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud
Tuesday
-18°C / -29°C
Mainly Sunny
Wednesday
-18°C / -26°C
Mainly Sunny

Today will feature slightly below normal temperatures[1]. Highs will be in the mid to upper minus teens in southern Manitoba with fairly light winds. As a result, the wind chill won’t be a big factor.

Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday, but not by a whole lot. Temperatures will sit around -20C with wind remaining relatively light once again.

Wednesday will be close to a carbon-copy of Tuesday. The wind will be a bit stronger on Wednesday though, so you may notice the wind chill factor a bit more – but values aren’t expected to reach “extreme” [2] criteria.

Long Range

The long range forecast calls for continued cold weather.

The long range forecast calls for continued cold weather.

The long range forecast continues to look bleak. Models suggest below-normal temperatures will last through most of the first half of February. There has been some rumblings that the second half of February may feature warmer weather, but that remains to be seen. For the time being, we will remain locked in a cold pattern.

  1. The normal high for this time of year is -10°C and the normal low is -21°C. ↩
  2. Extreme being -40 or colder ↩

Below-Normal Temperatures Continue

Brad Leave a comment

Those looking for a balmy reprieve from winter are going to have to look into buying plane tickets because there is no end in sight to the below-normal temperatures that have settled in over the region. A very stable pattern has developed which anchors us into a north/northwesterly flow and will continue to tap cold Arctic air and funnel it southwards over the Prairies.

Friday
-18°C / -25°C
Mixed skies.

Saturday
-18°C / -27°C
A few clouds.

Sunday
-17°C / -25°C
A few clouds.

Quiet Weather Ahead

A very quiet few days are ahead of us with little in the way of active weather on tap. A weak cold front is pushing southwards through the province today, and while it’s possible some snow happens, if it were to it wouldn’t really amount to more than a few flakes and definitely wouldn’t accumulate to anything. Here in Winnipeg and areas south the best chance for that is overnight, but it’s so minimal that I don’t really feel it bears any more mention than.

After that, there’s no snow expected through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will generally sit around -18°C for highs and -25°C for lows with variations a couple degrees off those points. Winds are also expected to be light with nothing climbing over 20-25km/h through the next few days.

Cold Weather Here to Stay

While it’s not nearly as cold as it was through December or many parts of this month, our temperatures are still noticeably below the “seasonal”[1] -11°C for this time of year. Thanks to that persistent northerly flow thanks to a complex of lows anchored over Hudson Bay, it doesn’t look like much change is in sight.

The NAEFS is forecasting below-normal temperatures through the 8-14 day timeframe.
The NAEFS is forecasting below-normal temperatures through the 8-14 day timeframe.

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) continues to forecast below-normal temperatures in the 1-2 week timeframe; unfortunately for us, this outlook tends to be fairly accurate most of the time. At this rate, it means that we’ll see little hope for improvement at least until the middle of February.

So, do what Winnipegers are great at doing: make lemonade. Enjoy the fact there won’t be much wind, bundle up and get out there!

  1. It should probably be noted that – especially in January – the “normal” temperatures tend to be averages between the extremes thanks to our continental climate.  ↩

Extreme Cold on The Way Out

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A clipper system tracking through Southern Manitoba today will bring near-normal temperatures and a very slight chance of a flurry through the early afternoon. Once the system passes through, we’re going to settle into a fairly stable pattern as a dome of cold air settles over Hudson Bay, keeping us in a benign but cool pattern for the remainder of the week.

Wednesday
-11°C / -25°C
Cloudy; a marginal chance of midday flurries. Clearing later in the day.

Thursday
-20°C / -25°C
Mainly sunny.

Friday
-18°C / -22°C
A few clouds.

Today will bring relatively mild weather as temperatures climb up to -11°C or so thanks to a weak clipper system tracking through Central Manitoba that is dragging some warmer air with it as it pushes through. We’ll see mainly cloudy conditions through the morning and early afternoon with clouds then clearing out late in the afternoon or early this evening. There’s a very slight chance of a flurry or two starting midday and through the early afternoon, but the risk is very slight at that. Any organized snowfall should remain to our north and to our east, but even there only around 2cm is expected. By mid-afternoon there will be essentially no threat of snow and the clearing will begin.

This 700mb temperature chart for Saturday evening shows the dome of cold Arctic air set to settle over Hudson Bay.
This 700mb temperature chart for Saturday evening shows the dome of cold Arctic air set to settle over Hudson Bay.

As the clipper system pushes off into Ontario, cooler air will begin filtering into Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures drop to around -25°C tonight with a modest recovery to around -20°C tomorrow under mainly sunny skies. The temperature will drop to around -25°C once again tomorrow night under clear skies. Friday looks to climb a little bit warmer to around -18°C with some afternoon clouds as a very weak disturbance whips across the province. Slightly warmer air aloft will bump up our overnight low a few degrees to around -22°C or so under clear skies once again.

More of the same (perhaps cooling off a little) is in store for the weekend. No significant snowfall events[1], in Winnipeg or the Red River Valley, are expected right through to the end of next week.

  1. “Significant” in this case meaning 2cm or more.  ↩

Cold, Cold, Cold

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This week will see a return to frigid weather, the likes of which we haven’t seen consistently since early this month.

Monday will be very cold as an arctic air mass remains entrenched over southern Manitoba

Monday will be very cold as an arctic air mass remains entrenched over southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
-25°C / -33°C
Mainly Sunny

Monday will feature extreme cold weather. High temperatures in Southern Manitoba will be in the mid minus twenties, with wind chill values in the upper minus thirties or lower minus forties for much of the day. Temperatures will plunge on Monday night, as will wind chills – don’t forget to plug in your car!

Tuesday

Tuesday
-21°C / -25°C
Mainly Sunny

Wake-up temperatures on Tuesday will be brutal. Air temperatures will be in the low to mid minus thirties, with wind chills making it feel more like the mid minus forties. However, it appears that we will warm up a fair bit during the day on Tuesday. It won’t be warm by any means, but temperatures should climb close to -20C by late afternoon. A southerly flow will develop on Tuesday night, preventing another night of extreme cold.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-11°C / -25°C
Mainly Cloudy. Chance of Flurries.

Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week, as that southerly flow temporarily brings some relief to this cold snap. Daytime highs on Wednesday look to be in the low minus teens, which will make it feel like relatively warm day. Unfortunately, another cold front will blow through Southern Manitoba during the day on Wednesday, bringing a renewed push of arctic air. We may see a bit of snow on Wednesday due to a passing weather system, but amounts will be small.

Long Range

The NAEFS model suggests that we're in for a prolonged cold snap.

The NAEFS model suggests that we’re in for a prolonged cold snap.

The long range forecast looks really bad. For the first time since the beginning of this month there are strong indications of another prolonged cold snap. Long range models suggest this cold weather will last into the beginning of February for sure, but perhaps longer than that. We’ll just have to hope the models are wrong.