Elsewhere in Weather News: November 17th, 2012

Matthieu Leave a comment

Wildfire Flare Up in Southern Australia

On Monday the 12th of November, a large wildfire in Southern Australia flared up. Residents had to be evacuated in the region of Tulka as the wildfire threatened houses. Over 100 firefighters battled the blaze but unfortunately they were unsuccessful in their attempt to control it that day. In total, the fire burned nearly 5,000 acres, destroying seven properties. No one was injured, though animals such as koalas that lived in the area where the wildfire took place needed veterinary attention. The fire has been contained since Tuesday.

Wildfire

Picture of the Tulka Wildfire. (Source: Michael Sleep/ABC)

This month, Port Lincoln, a city near Tulka, received only 4.4mm rain in comparison to its 20mm average for the month of November. The lack of precipitation combined with a high of 36.4°C on Sunday November 11th (13°C above the November average) contributed to conditions ripe for wildfires in Southern Australia at this time of the year. Tulka typically receives minimal rainfall in the month of November due to dominant high pressure off the coast of Southern Australia and troughs that sporadically make their way to the region. It is predicted that most of Australia will have a warm and dry summer, having an indirect relation to the weak El Nino that is forecast to develop this winter. If this were the case, it would be an active wildfire season in Australia this summer.

Systems map

Systems map of Australia of next Wednesday, high pressure dominating Southern Australia. (Source: Weatherzone)

Several days prior to this event, a few other wildfires flared up in Western Australia but they were located in a remote area and did not directly affect population.

Wildfire NASA picture

Picture of a wildfire in Western Australia on November 7th, taken by NASA. (Source: NASA)

Mild Weather To Bring Cloudy Skies…Again

Brad Leave a comment

A southwest flow aloft is bringing warmer air back to the Prairie provinces, however with plenty of snow around to melt, our sunshine won’t last long…

A shot of sunshine in Winnipeg; a rather elusive feat as of late. The sun will go back into hiding this weekend. Photo credit: Instagram user @shwaahall.

We’ll see mainly sunny skies today as temperatures climb to right around the 0°C mark with winds out of the south at 30km/h. As winds subside this evening after sunset, stratus clouds and fog will begin to develop in the Red River Valley as all the moisture from melting snowpack is stuck underneath the inversion and is forced to condense as the temperatures drop. Expect an overnight low of –5°C tonight. The fog patches will stick around the RRV into Saturday morning before lifting.

Clouds will stick around for the day on Saturday as temperatures climb to about –1°C. Fog patches will likely redevelop on Saturday night as temperatures dip down to –5°C again. Sunday looks to be a mainly cloudy day as well, with a daytime high once again right near the freezing mark.

For now it looks like we may see the cloud get scoured out of the Valley as a surface trough moves through on Monday; for now, enjoy the sunshine today…we likely won’t see it for another couple days.

A Return to Seasonal Weather

Brad Leave a comment

A low pressure system tracking across Northern Manitoba will sweep warmer air across the Eastern Prairies bringing seasonal weather back to the region.

850mb temperatures this afternoon

Forecast 850mb temperatures for this afternoon. The sharp boundary of red/blue is the 0°C line, with blue shading on the cold side of it and red shading on the warm side of it.

The sun will remain elusive today as another shot of cloud cover will continue the seemingly endless cloudy streak that Winnipeg has been dealing with over the past several weeks. Offering some consolation, however, will be moderating temperatures. We’ve remained below our normal temperatures for this time of year1 on the back side of the Colorado Low that dumped 20-50cm of snow across Southern Manitoba, but we’ll see a warm-up today as very mild air at 850mb moves across the Red River Valley. As a low pressure system tracks across Northern Manitoba, it will draw warm air northwards from the United States, raising our 850mb temperatures to nearly 0°C. The extensive cloud cover and snow pack will limit our daytime highs, but they should climb up to right around -1 or 0°C. Areas with little to no snow over the southeast portions of the province may even be able to eke out a +1 or +2°C high today.

The rest of the week looks fairly uneventful, with daytime highs dropping back towards -3°C to -5°C as slightly cooler air pushes southwards behind the Northern Manitoba low. Overnight lows should also sit around -10°C for the next few nights. The major upside to the latter half of this week is that the sun should finally make an appearance. Clouds look like they’ll clear out tonight and we should see a bunch more sun than we’ve gotten used seeing to lately.

  1. The normal daytime high for this time of year is around -1°C, while the normal overnight low is around -9°C. ↩

The Calm After the Storm

Brad Leave a comment

After a weekend laced with active weather all over the Prairies, we will go into a much more subdued pattern for this week. But unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the snow is going anywhere fast.

Cold temperatures are expected on Monday morning in Western Manitoba

Cold temperatures are expected on Monday morning in Western Manitoba

The weather to start the week looks cool to cold, but fairly uneventful. The main story may in fact be the low temperatures, with very cold values expected. On Sunday morning Coronation, Alberta plunged down to -29C! In Southern Manitoba our lows don’t look to be quite that extreme, but if skies clear out as expected some -20C readings may appear in Western Manitoba this morning. In the Red River Valley our daytime temperatures won’t moderate much from this morning’s lows, with temperatures basically flat-lining throughout the day in the high minus single digits or low minus double digits. It looks like we’ll get down into the low minus teens on Tuesday morning, with widespread -20s not looking too likely at this point. By Tuesday afternoon it looks like we’ll climb up to the mid minus single digits, which should be fairly pleasant given the lack of wind. On Wednesday models suggest that we could get up to the freezing mark, though they may not have a great handle on the new snow cover, so I’d assume our temperatures will remain slightly below zero for now.

No significant weather is in store for the late week period, just more typical mid-November conditions. Long-range models hint at warmer than normal weather returning to Manitoba later this month, but those predictions should be taken with caution for now as our new snow cover may not be properly accounted for yet.