Rain Rain Rain

After nearly an entire month with no precipitation, this week will bring plenty of rain to the RRV and bring us to the edge of winter.

A powerful low pressure system will move across the RRV tonight and through Tuesday bringing with it plenty of rain.  As the low begins to approach the Ontario border, it will deepen dramatically bring unpleasant conditions to Southern Manitoba.

The rain should begin this evening into the overnight period as the low approaches giving us only about 5-10mm.  As the low passes on Tuesday, winds will shift around to the north and increase to 40 to 50 km/h.  This gusty north wind will whip plenty of rain that will develop along a elongated hang-back trough resulting in blustery, wet conditions amid a dropping temperature through Wednesday.  Total rainfall amounts will probably be in the 15-25mm range, however could be higher in a few places.

Snow looks unlikely for most of the RRV right now, however the rain may switch over to snow for extreme western edges of the RRV on Wednesday as cooler air is able to poke in over the higher terrain.  Accumulations should be somewhat negligible, however.

So, a wet (and soon to be windy) week is ahead of us.  The clouds should clear out Thursday and we will be left with cooler, albeit sunny, weather.

Cool Dry Weather Ahead

Quiet weather will aid farmers as they harvest and do end of year duties.  The rest of us will enjoy pleasant, dry days.

An upper ridge rebounding over Western Canada will continue to block inclement weather over southern Manitoba, diverting it through Northern and Central Manitoba instead.  This ridge will spill some above-normal temperatures into Saskatchewan, and perhaps southwestern Manitoba, however here in the RRV we should stay on the cool side, with our temperatures over the remainder of the week hovering in the 10-15°C range.

For this weekend, a weak cold front pushes across Southern Manitoba bringing with it little-to-no precipitation, but will drop our daytime highs down into the 5-10°C range.

This cooler temperatures will continue until mid-next week when an impulse moving into the central Prairies will likely bring an end to the dry spell we’ve been experiencing the past few weeks, along with a slight chance for us to experience our first shot of winter.  More on that later in the week as things develop a bit more.

Get out and enjoy the nice weather while it lasts!

The Upcoming Week

Sunshine and warm temperatures are the name of the game this week.

There’s not much to say for this week other than enjoy the nice weather.  A broad upper ridge will dominate the weather over the southern Prairies through most of the week.

12Z GEM-REG 500mb Heights & Speed valid 12Z Wednesday Oct 6.

A broad upper ridge sitting over the southern Prairies is bringing temperatures into the low to mid 20’s over Southern Saskatchewan and temperatures near 20 for Southern Manitoba.  This upper ridge will give way to a weak upper trough that will move across the Prairies Tuesday and Wednesday, however any rain associated with it will stay well north of the RRV and not effect our temperatures too much with them being limited only to the high teens.  After the trough moves by, then the upper ridge begins to build back and temperatures should head back into the low 20’s for the week’s end.

A warm and dry outlook is sure to be welcome news for farmers who have been battling waterlogged fields through much of the summer.

Mostly Sunny

Models indicate that there is a chance of showers late overnight and into tomorrow morning, and then we should return back to mostly sunny skies before cooler air pushes in for the weekend.

The GEM-REG model is currently the most aggressive in pushing rain through southern Manitoba tomorrow morning, as shown above in the 12H precipitation accumulation map valid 12Z Wednesday morning.

Sunny skies this evening should cloud up overnight as a cold front passes through southern Manitoba.  Most models lean towards just a slight chance of showers for the RRV, with a majority of the precipitation occurring in Northwestern Ontario.  The GEM-REG model, however, fires up a fair line of showers along the front as it passes through overnight, giving up to 5mm of rain to the RRV.  This solution currently looks to be an outlier, however so far this cold front has had a good history of precipitation along it.

Either way, it’s fairly certain that any accumulations that do develop should stick to the 5mm range, and will certainly be less than 10mm.   After the front passes through, we should see another mostly sunny day with a few clouds scattered around.

By Friday, as an upper ridge builds in the western Prairies, we should see a brisk northerly flow develop as a cold front slumps down through the province.  Expect cloudier skies than the forecast currently suggests in the afternoon.  The good news is that despite the chill in the air, precipitation is looking like it should stay north of Winnipeg.  Saturday looks to be a chilly day with 850 temperatures struggling to get above 0 for most of the RRV, and then we begin to transition back to warmer weather for the beginning of next week as the upper ridge moves east.