Hot, Unsettled Weather Ahead

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Winnipeg will see very hot and unsettled conditions heading through the weekend.

A low pressure system crossing the province today will send temperatures soaring in Winnipeg. South-southwest winds of 30–40 km/h will usher in a hot air mass with highs climbing into the mid- to upper-30s. The dew point will stay in the low teens which will mean, fortunately, that the humidity won’t make the heat feel any worse than it already is. A “cold” front will sweep southwards through the Red River Valley later today. This front will bring a risk of thunderstorms to the region as it passes, although the most likely area to see any convection will be south near the U.S. border. Winds will shift to the north behind the front and then ease overnight. Temperatures will head to a low near 18 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Friday June 4, 2021
Temperatures will climb into the mid-30s by lunch time today across portions of southern Manitoba.

On Saturday, moderate southerly winds will bring more hot weather back into the region as another low pressure system moves into the province. Temperatures will climb back into the mid-30s but this time humidity will accompany it. Dew points will climb into the mid- to upper teens, making it feel closer to +40 out. That heat and humidity will meet another cold front pushing into the Red River Valley late in the day. This combination will bring a risk of thunderstorms — potentially severe — to the region Saturday evening and overnight. Temperatures will head to a low near 19 °C.

3km NAM Simulated Reflectivity Forecast valid 07Z Sunday June 6, 2021
Many weather models show the potential for nocturnal thunderstorm development on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Drier, slightly cooler air will work into the region on Sunday. The morning will start with some lingering cloud with a chance of showers or thunderstorms as the cold front slowly continues to push through the valley. It should be off to the east by late in the morning with skies clearing for the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near 27 °C with a moderate westerly wind bringing more comfortable humidity levels to the region. Skies will stay clear on Sunday night with a low near 14 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start with mainly sunny skies and highs near 30 °C again. Forecasts show more unsettled conditions developing mid-week, then gradual cooling back towards seasonal values by the weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.

Blazing Heat Building In

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Temperatures will soar in Winnipeg through the second half of the week as a potent upper ridge builds across the Prairies.

The heat will be remarkable for early June as temperatures climb through the 30s over the next few days. The heat will likely challenge records for the Winnipeg area, particularly on Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s high of 33 °C will challenge the existing record of 32.8 °C set in 1968. Friday’s intense push of heat will send highs into the upper 30s and likely break the existing record high of 35.6 °C set in 1988. The overnight lows may even challenge record warm minimum temperatures which sit at 18.3 °C for both June 4th and 5th, set in 1976.

Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a heat warning for much of southern Manitoba. Tips to beat the heat can be found on the City of Winnipeg’s emergency preparedness page.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday June 4, 2021
Temperatures will be very hot over southern Manitoba on Friday with highs in the 35–40 °C range.

The city will see plenty of sun throughout the next few days. The most notable non-heat element of the weather will occur overnight into early Thursday morning. A strong upper-level jet will generate some showers and/or thunderstorms over the northern Prairies on Wednesday afternoon. This cluster of instability will move southwards into southern Manitoba through the evening and overnight hours. Winnipeg will see a chance of showers or thunderstorms overnight with the highest chance after midnight. These storms won’t have any organized risk of severe weather, but dry low-levels mean that some moderate to strong wind gusts will be possible with them as they move through.

Some lingering cloud from these systems will stick around on Thursday morning, then skies should clear for the afternoon.

Long Range Outlook

The heat will continue with daytime highs in the 30s on Saturday, then highs will ease back into the upper 20s Sunday into next week. Conditions will also turn more unstable this weekend, with an increasing chance of showers or thunderstorms beginning Sunday night and persisting into next week. The above-seasonal warmth will persist right through next week with highs in the mid- to upper-20s and lows of 15–20 °C.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.

Heading Into A Heat Wave

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Winnipeg will see temperatures soar this week as scorching heat builds into the region.

Winnipeg will see plenty of sunshine over the next few days as an upper ridge builds into western Canada. On Tuesday, a weak low moving through southern Manitoba will bring a few more clouds into the region. As it slumps southwards, it will bring a chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms. The support for thunderstorms will be weak — bulk shear will sit at 20–30 knots and try to offset the limited energy — but there will likely be enough forcing to support a few. Skies will clear out again for Wednesday.

RDPS 500mb Wind and Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday June 2, 2021
A potent upper ridge will build out of the western United States into the Canadian Prairies this week.

The big story will be the building heat this week. As the upper ridge strengthens over the Prairies, Winnipeg will see daytime highs rise from the low 20s today to around 30 °C by Wednesday. Overnight lows will follow suit increasing into the upper teens by mid-week.

Long Range Outlook

The heat will continue to build through the latter half of the week. Daytime highs should peak on Friday in the mid- to upper 30’s as overnight lows stay in the upper teens. Fortunately, dew points are forecast to stay in the low to mid-teens, so humidex values won’t be a significant component of the heat wave. The hot weather will continue into the weekend, then begin to ease as unsettled conditions develop on Sunday into next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Seasonal Warmth Returns to Winnipeg

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Winnipeg will see temperatures climb back towards seasonal values after this week’s late-season cold snap.

A low pressure system crossing the northern Prairies will usher warmer conditions back to southern Manitoba. Under sunny skies, southerly winds will increase to 40 gusting 60 km/h this afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the upper teens; Winnipeg should see a high near 19 °C. Tonight, an approaching trough will keep winds around 30 km/h as it spreads clouds into the region. Temperatures will dip to a low near 9 °C in Winnipeg.

On Saturday, Winnipeg will see cloudier skies as the trough moves into the Red River Valley. It will bring a chance of showers to the region, but it will weaken through the day as its main energy source pulls away to the south. Winds will stay out of the south again in the 30–40 km/h range. The winds will finally ease on Saturday night to 15–25 km/h with a low near 10 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday May 30, 2021
Warmer weather will return to Winnipeg this weekend.

On Sunday, a weak cold front will sweep through the region. It won’t bring more than partly cloudy skies with breezy northwest winds for the afternoon. The high in Winnipeg will be around 22 °C. Skies will stay clear on Sunday night with a low near 7 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Next week looks mainly dry across the Red River Valley with highs in the mid-20s. Overnight lows should see a boost and stay in the low to mid-teens through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.