Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

Bitterly Cold Arctic Air On The Way

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Temperatures will plummet in Winnipeg this weekend as bitterly cold Arctic air pushes across the Prairies.

Temperatures are all downhill from here as some of the coldest air on the continent begins moving into Manitoba. Extreme cold will develop over southern Manitoba in the coming days as daytime highs fall from -16 °C today to -26 °C by Sunday. Overnight lows will likewise plummet, dipping into the mid-minus 30s.

Extreme cold warnings from ECCC are a sure bet; widespread wind chills of -40 to -50 will develop over the southern Prairies this weekend. In the far northern Prairies, wind chill values may even drop into the -55 to -60 range by Sunday morning. This will be a brutally cold stretch of weather, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season so far to many parts of the Prairies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Sunday February 7, 2021
Bitterly cold Arctic air will descend through the Prairies this weekend.

As far as the other elements of the weather go, things will trend sunnier and calmer. Winnipeg will see mixed skies today with a good chance of a few flurries. Skies will gradually clear out tonight and tomorrow, leaving mainly sunny skies for Sunday. Northwest winds will persist in Winnipeg, easing from 30–40 km/h today into the 20–30 km/h range tomorrow. Winds will be light out of the west on Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

These brutally cold temperatures are the result of the Polar Vortex; a lobe has decoupled from the main vortex over the poles and will settle over Manitoba and parts of Northwestern Manitoba. Unfortunately, it means that improvement will be slow to come. The coldest temperatures will be this weekend into early next week, followed by a slight moderation for the rest of the week.

Through next week, temperatures will likely stay 5 to 10 °C below seasonal values with some cloudier conditions possible. A return to near-seasonal conditions will be possible the week after next.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Arctic Grip Slowly Eases

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Temperatures will warm in Winnipeg over the coming days as upper-level ridging builds across the Prairies.

There’s still one more day of bitter cold ahead for the city today. The Arctic ridge responsible for the frigid temperatures will slowly shift across the province through the day. This will keep daytime highs again near the -23 °C mark with light winds and sunny skies. Temperatures will quickly dip to around -27 °C this evening, but then moderate slightly as some cloud cover arrives with a push of milder air.

Thursday will bring mixed skies to the city as some morning cloud breaks up for the afternoon. The city will get its reprieve from the cold as temperatures climb to a seasonal high near -12 °C. Winds will be light out of the southeast at 10–20 km/h. This will mark the beginning of a shift into a warmer pattern as the polar vortex consolidates over the high Arctic and Pacific begins to wash over the region. Temperatures will dip to a low near -18 °C on Thursday night with partly cloudy skies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday January 29, 2021
Seasonably mild temperatures will replace the deep freeze over southern Manitoba by Friday.

A warmer air mass will continue to push into the province for Friday, bringing increasing cloudiness with it. Temperatures will climb back to seasonably warm values with a high near -8 °C and winds will pick up out of the southeast again into the 20–30 km/h range. A few flurries are possible, but any snow will likely hold off until overnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near -10°C.

Long Range Outlook

Southern Manitoba will see more cloud and light snow this weekend as an upper trough migrates across the region. Temperatures will stay warm with highs in the mid-minus single digits and early indications suggest snow accumulations of 2–5 cm around the Winnipeg area.

The mild temperatures will stick around into next week, although a return to seasonal temperatures looks possible mid-week with the passage of another low pressure system.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Bitter Cold Arrives

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Extremely cold temperatures will stay entrenched over southern Manitoba through the first half of the week.

Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today, supported by a weak inverted trough collapsing southwards into the United States. This cloud cover will bring a few flurries to the region, but most of it will stay south of Winnipeg. In the city, there will a chance for a bit of light snow, but mainly in the morning hours.

The cloud cover won’t help temperatures much. The main story over the coming days will be the bitter cold over the region. Temperatures won’t climb above -20 °C over the next two days, and only nudge above the mark on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be bitterly cold and dip below -30 °C both tonight and Tuesday night. Note that these overnight lows are difficult to forecast; there is a chance that temperatures could dip even colder than this, or stay a bit warmer. The difference in outcomes is subtle, but its worth noting that temperatures of -35 to -40 °C have occurred over western Manitoba into central and northern Saskatchewan. This is the air mass that will move into the Red River Valley today.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Tuesday January 26, 2021
Bitterly cold temperatures will spread into southern Manitoba over the coming days.

Extreme cold warnings will be likely as it does not take much wind to drive wind chills below -40 with these bitterly cold overnight lows.

Skies will clear out Monday night and stay mainly sunny right through Wednesday. Some cloud will begin working into the region late Wednesday as warmer air starts to move towards the province.

Long Range Outlook

The upper flow supporting the bitterly cold temperatures will collapse in the second half of the week. This will allow milder air to surge back across the Prairies and send temperatures back to seasonal or seasonably mild for the latter half of the week. Comparatively pleasant winter weather will persist through the weekend with a chance for a few centimetres of snow on Saturday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Colder Weather Continues with Chance of Light Snow

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Winnipeg will continue to see cool temperatures through the weekend, but cloudier conditions will bring a chance of light snow to the city.

Clouds streaming southeastwards off Lake Manitoba will bring Winnipeg mixed to mostly cloudy skies to start the day. These bands of lake-effect cloud will also likely produce a bit of light snow, but other than a dusting that makes the roads a little wet. The snow should taper off midday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region and the northwest winds begin to ease. A bit of sun is likely this afternoon, but temperatures will stay cool with a high near +2 °C.

Tonight, the region will see increasing cloud cover as a low pressure system moves into the Dakotas. This system will bring some light snow to areas along the international border, but Winnipeg should just see some cloud. Temperatures will dip to a low near -5 °C.

Saturday will start with cloudy conditions across the region with temperatures climbing to a high near +2 °C. As the low pushes eastwards out of the Dakotas, northwest winds will strengthen across the region into the 30–40 km/h range. This will result in bands of lake-effect snow redeveloping sometime later in the day into the evening. Winnipeg will likely see cloud and snow from Lake Manitoba by the evening hours and persisting through the night. Winnipeg shouldn’t see much more than a dusting of snow, but areas northwest of the city could see 1–4 cm by Sunday morning. Temperatures will dip to -5 °C on Saturday night with winds easing.

3km NAM Forecast Precipitation Type/Intensity valid 03Z Sunday October 18, 2020
Flurries from Lake Manitoba will move into Winnipeg by Saturday evening.

Winnipeg will continue to see bands of lake-effect cloud and intermittent light snow on Sunday. Temperatures will climb to a high near +2 °C with west-northwest winds in the 20–30 km/h range. Sunday night should bring partly cloudy skies to the region with temperatures heading to a low near -7 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Long-range forecasts continue to show cool weather for Winnipeg. Daytime highs may moderate into the mid-single digits next Tuesday and Wednesday, but then cooler air pushes back into the region with highs falling to the freezing mark by next Saturday. The region will likely see cloudier conditions next week with the occasional chance of light snow.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 0 °C.