Tag: Benign Weather

A Slow Crawl Towards Seasonal Conditions Begins; More Rain Possible Next Weekend

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Southern Manitoba will see a very slow shift back towards more seasonal spring weather over the next week. Another storm system will impact the region this weekend, but its impact isn’t quite clear yet.

ECMWF 10m Winds and MSLP Forecast valid 12Z Tuesday April 26, 2022
A sprawling Arctic high will influence southern Manitoba right through the week.

The weather over the next few days will be dominated by a stubborn Arctic high lingering over the region. It sits on top of the province today, then gradually shift into NW Ontario over the next 36 hours. Southern Manitoba will continue to see a ridge of high pressure hang back across the region. This ridging will stick around until a developing storm system in the United States finally weakens it at the end of the week.

Its presence will be a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, it will keep temperatures cool over the region. On the other, it will help deflect some weaker lows over the western Prairies away. This will keep conditions dry through the rest of the work week; a welcome outcome considering the flooding in the wake of the weekend’s storm.

For Winnipeg, this will mean that the city sees a fair amount of sunshine over the next couple days. Today’s high will be a few degrees above freezing, then increasing into the 5–10 °C range on Wednesday.

Thursday will bring some cloud to the region as an upper frontal wave pulls away from a low over the northwestern Prairies. There could be a few showers that skirt the region later in the day, but amounts would likely be very light

Skies will continue to be cloudy on Friday, this time due to another significant storm system taking shape in the United States.

Daytime highs will likely hover close to 10 °C both Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will increase from several degrees below zero tonight to the mid-single digits by Friday.

Long Range Outlook

Unfortunately, it looks like southern Manitoba could be in for more rain to end the week. This system — a sort of “Utah Low” — won’t have quite as much energy as the weekend’s Colorado Low. It will still be a substantial storm in its own right, though.

There is, unlike the previous two storms, significant uncertainty with this one. Forecast models have been flopping around, placing the precipitation right across southern Manitoba, keeping it almost entirely south of the border, or shifting it into SE Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.

So at this point, it’s still too early to say with much skill where the rain is going to show up. But there is pretty good agreement that this system will be capable of producing 25–50 mm of rain somewhere in the southeastern Prairies.

ECMWF 10m Wind and MSLP Forecast valid 12Z Sunday May 1, 2022
While there’s disagreement about where the rain will fall with this weekend’s system, all forecast models are producing a moderately strong low pressure system over the Dakotas and Minnesota.

If that rain did fall over the Red River Valley, it would be a significant concern. Not only is the ground very saturated in most areas, it would also coincide with the second crest of the Red River travelling northwards.

Should the rain fall further west, that would also be a concern. It would likely impact many areas that have seen substantial snowfall amounts over the past two weekends. This would help accelerate the melt and could present flooding risks in some of those areas as well.

So probably not a welcome storm in any situation. We’ll keep a close eye on it as it develops and have a full forecast later in the week.

If you have a property that experienced flooding issues this past weekend, it may be prudent to plan possible flood mitigation efforts in case this storm ends up impacting your area again.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 1 °C.

Gradual Spring Melt Continues

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Pleasant spring temperatures and variable cloudiness will continue to aid in a gradual spring melt across the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday April 1, 2022
West-southwest winds will usher warmer spring temperatures into the Red River Valley.

The week will end with a beautiful day in the Winnipeg area. Breezy southwest winds will help highs climb up close to 10 °C this afternoon under mainly sunny skies. Westerly winds will continue for much of the night near 20 km/h. Temperatures will dip below freezing as a passing cold front ushers in more cloud early Saturday morning.

Behind the front, temperatures will be a bit cooler and skies cloudier. The high in Winnipeg will cool to just above the freezing mark on Saturday as northwest winds taper off late in the day. Much of the cloud cover will stick around Saturday night. The low dips into the -5 to -10 °C range.

Sunday will continue cloudier, but temperatures will moderate back towards seasonal values with a high near 5 °C. Temperatures will dip just below freezing on Sunday night, moderated by milder air moving in for Monday.

Throughout the next few days, dew point values will stay below freezing and continue to aid the gradual snowmelt across the region. Combined with a lack of precipitation, this is helping to ease the flood risk across the region.

Long Range Outlook

The weather pattern will turn a bit more unsettled next week as several disturbances cross through the province. This pattern change will bring warmer weather more consistently to the region with daytime highs closer to 10 °C through the week. Rain is possible on a few days next week, but there is still too much disagreement between weather models to suggest any certainty.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -6 °C.

Spring Melt Continues in Southern Manitoba

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Daytime highs will continue to hover above freezing across southern Manitoba, continuing the gradual spring melt across the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday March 19, 2022
Daytime highs will climb a few degrees above freezing over the Prairie snowpack the next few days, and into the teens over the snow-free terrain of the southwestern Prairies.

Winnipeg will see several days of benign weather ahead. Temperatures will climb above freezing each day with lows dipping back below 0 °C. Dew points will stay below freezing, which will help ensure a more gradual snow melt across the region. The continued spring melt will produce variable cloudiness over the next few days with a continued chance for morning fog patches. Wind-wise, breezy southerlies will give way to lither westerlies later today, followed by lighter winds gradually shifting easterly through the weekend.

Long Range Outlook

The next disturbance to impact the area will move through later Monday into Tuesday. An upper trough will move into central North America, producing an area of rain extending from the Gulf Coast northwards into the central American Plains. That rain will be sheared northwards along a deformation zone into a secondary shortwave tracking through the Prairies. This will bring rain/snow mix to southern Manitoba; depending on the speed of the system, it could result in notable rainfall through the Red River Valley.

Otherwise, the forecast is much of the same. Daytime highs continuing to sit above freezing with a refreeze overnight. Dew points below freezing should moderate the rate of snow melt, helping with the flooding risk. Enjoy the gradual return to spring!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 0 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -10 °C.

Cool Mid-Week, Otherwise Comparatively Mild

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Although temperatures will sit below seasonal normals over the coming days, the warming March sun and relief from the bitterly cold temperatures of January and February will make it feel comparatively pleasant outside.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday March 1, 2022
With the coldest temperatures bottled back up in northern Manitoba, the stronger March sunshine will make it feel comparatively pleasant over southern regions.

It will be a beautiful day in the Red River Valley today with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and a high near -10 °C. A cold front will slump southwards tonight, bringing some cloud and another batch of light snow to the region. A couple centimetres of snow are possible overnight, followed by clearing skies for Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler mid-week behind the cold front. Both Wednesday and Thursday will bring highs in the -10 to -15 °C range, but Wednesday night will be cold with lows approaching -30 °C. Lows will moderate towards -20 °C on Thursday evening as more cloud cover moves into the region ahead of a push of warmer air.

Winnipeg and area will see cloudier skies for the end of the week and the weekend. Highs will warm into the -5 to -10 °C range with overnight lows in the mid-minus teens. A bit of snow is possible over the weekend, with anywhere from 2–5 cm falling in a couple waves as disturbances pass to the north and south.

Long Range Outlook

Conditions look more settled next week with highs in the -5 to -10 °C range and lows in the -15 to -20 °C range. The region will see variable cloudiness and, although cool, it will continue to feel better and better as the sun gains strength.

Prolonged periods of cool(-ish) conditions and sunshine in March will help alleviate some of the flooding risk the region faces given substantial snow pack over the region. The strengthening sun can sublimate water out of the snow on ground, reducing it’s overall load and easing meltwater quantities. This may be a helpful couple weeks when it comes to the flood risk the region faces.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.