Dry, Hot Weather Ahead

Summer heat arrives this week for Winnipeg with a prolonged stretch of hot, dry weather.

The weather driver for Winnipeg this week will be a potent upper-level high that is currently situated over British Columbia. This feature is responsible for a dangerous, record-setting heat wave over the region right now. In fact, yesterday the town of Lytton, B.C. set a new record for hottest temperature recorded in all of Canada at 46.6 °C, beating out the previous record of 45.0 °C set in both Yellow Grass and Midale, SK on July 5, 1937. And records aren’t just falling in British Columbia, they’re being smashed by 5–10 °C.

This feature will slowly drift eastwards this week, gradually weakening as it pushes across the Prairies. But it will continue to bring several days of record-shattering heat to British Columbia and Alberta.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday June 30, 2021
Daytime highs will reach around 30 °C in Winnipeg mid-week. Note the temperatures in excess of 40 °C forecast for northern Alberta.

Winnipeg will see daytime highs climb to around 30 °C over the coming days with lows increasing into the upper teens. The city will see plenty of sunshine over the next few days with just a few clouds around. Winds will pick up out of the north to around 20 km/h today, then ease tonight and stay light over the next couple days. As mentioned at the top, no notable precipitation is in the forecast. There is a slight chance that a few showers may move through overnight Tuesday or very early Wednesday morning, but it doesn’t look particularly likely at this point.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week will be more of the same with temperatures increasing further. Highs should reach the mid-30s by the weekend with overnight lows warming to around 20 °C. No precipitation is expected through the second half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Beautiful Summer Weekend Ahead

Winnipeg will see beautiful summer weather this weekend.

The next few days will bring seasonably mild temperatures to Winnipeg as a major upper high gradually pushes into the western Prairies. This feature will bring what will likely be a record-shattering heat wave to portions of western Canada and the western United States. That heat will take longer to reach Manitoba, though, leaving the province with generally seasonable late June conditions.

A weak ridge extending across the southern Prairies will help keep winds light out of the southwest today. Winnipeg should see partly cloudy skies for much of the day with a high near 27 °C. The city will see clear skies tonight with light winds and a low near 15 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday June 25, 2021
Much of the Prairies will see mild daytime highs in the upper 20s today.

On Saturday, one last upper trough will rotate into southern Manitoba, pivoting around the broad Arctic vortex over Hudson Bay. It will bring mixed skies to the region midday into the afternoon along with a chance of showers.

There may be a chance for isolated thunderstorms, but both energy and wind shear will be in short supply. This means that if any thunderstorms are able to develop, they will likely be short-lived and won’t pose any severe weather threat. Winds will pick up out of the west-northwest for the afternoon at 20–30 km/h. Temperatures will still be warm with a high near 26 °C. Winnipeg will se a low near 13 °C under mostly clear skies on Saturday night.

Sunny skies return for Sunday with temperatures climbing once again to a high near 26 °C. Winds will be light out of the north through the day. A few showers will move through the province on Sunday, but there is strong agreement that they’ll stay west of the Red River Valley and move through the Parkland into southwestern Manitoba.

Skies will stay mostly clear on Sunday night with a low near 15 °C.

Long Range Outlook

The upper high building over western Canada will slowly push eastwards into the Prairies over the coming week. This will result in a gradual increase in temperatures next week with highs increasing into the low 30s. The city should see fairly sunny conditions, however the occasional chance for showers can’t be ruled out.

Some forecast models are suggesting that a cutoff low will develop over the Northern Plains of the United States. If this happened, then there is the potential that a high over low block could develop. These are generally very stable patterns, and could result in a prolonged period of hot, dry weather over the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Beautiful Days Ahead

Winnipeg will see beautiful summer weather in the days ahead.

A broad upper-level ridge has built over the Prairies this weekend and will bring sunny skies and warm weather to southern Manitoba this week. Winnipeg will see nothing but sunshine the next couple days with daytime highs in the upper 20s. Northerly winds of 20–30 km/h will develop today for Winnipeg, but will ease tonight and shift to light southeasterlies on Tuesday.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday June 15, 2021
Temperatures will be warm across southern Manitoba through the first half of the week.

A warmer air mass pushing into the region will bring overnight lows up from the low teens tonight to the upper teens tomorrow night. Wednesday will see highs climb into the low 30s with a moderate southerly wind of 30–40 km/h. A cold front will push eastwards into the province through the day, bringing a few clouds to the region and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Long Range Outlook

Cooler weather will building to the region through the second half of the week with near-seasonal values by Friday and Saturday. A few showers are possible on Friday, then the next chance for rain appears to be Sunday when another disturbance moves through the province.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

A Return To Seasonal Temperatures

The seasonably cool temperatures entrenched over the Winnipeg area the past week are finally on the way out! Warmer weather will return to the region this week under sunny skies.

An upper high moving across the region will dominate the weather pattern over the coming days and bring Winnipeg plenty of sunshine. As it slides eastwards, the upper trough that had been suppling the region with cooler temperatures will shift off as well. This will allow milder Pacific air to push into the eastern Prairies.

In Winnipeg, this will mean nothing but sun and warming temperatures. The city will see ample sun over the next 3 days with daytime highs climbing from a seasonably cool 13 °C today up to 21 °C by Wednesday. Lows will also climb from around the freezing mark tonight to the upper single digits by Wednesday night.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday May 12, 2021
Seasonably warm temperatures will finally return to southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

Winds will gradually shift over the coming days. Today will bring northeast winds around 20 km/h today ahead of last Arctic ridge moving through the province. On Tuesday, winds will be light out of the south as the high slumps off to the southeast. On Wednesday, winds will pick up out of the south to around 30 gusting 50 km/h as warmer temperatures arrive.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the work week will bring highs in the low 20s and lows of 5–10 °C. Fire conditions will deteriorate through the week as the increasing warmth combines with wind and low daytime relative humidities. A few daytime showers might be possible later in the week, but they wouldn’t amount to anything that would make any noticeable impact on the worsening drought over the region.

Canadian Drought Monitor Conditions as of April 30, 2021
Canadian Drought Monitor Conditions as of April 30, 2021

While conditions at specific locations may be a bit better than depicted here, the impacts of the drought are showing. The City of Morden has implemented water use restrictions due to severe drought conditions, the City of Winnipeg had to deal with numerous grass fires over the weekend, and Sandilands Provincial Forest now has one of the first out of control forest fires of the season. With the dry conditions continuing through the week, Municipal Burning Restrictions and Provincial Burning Restrictions may expand.

Fortunately, a pattern change this weekend will bring several days of cloudier, more unsettled conditions. Southern Manitoba will likely see accumulating rainfall from Saturday into the middle of next week. At least 5 mm of rain is likely for most areas over that period, but more than 10 mm may be possible. The exact nature and distribution of the rainfall will become more clear later in the week as the disturbances develop.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.