Mild Weather Continues for Christmas

A building upper ridge over the Prairies through the next week will keep temperatures seasonably mild and dry throughout southern Manitoba.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday December 23, 2023
Saturday will bring the warmest weather of the next 7 days with daytime highs climbing above freezing in many parts of southern Manitoba.

We’re off to a foggy start in Winnipeg today as warmer air pushes into the region aloft. The arrival of this warmer air will send temperatures climbing over the next couple days.

The fog will gradually lift through the morning, then the city should see a high just below freezing this afternoon. The mainly cloudy start should give way to mixed skies a bit later in the day. Temperatures will stay fairly steady tonight

On Saturday, low pressure system tracking eastwards through the southern Arctic will draw even warmer air into the region. Winnipeg should see a high near +2 °C on Saturday with mixed skies and light southerlies.

On Sunday, a cold will pass through the region, ushering in moderate northwest winds and cooler weather. A few flurries are possible in the morning as the cold front swings through, then temperatures will hover just below freezing for most of the day. There won’t likely be a lot of snow; Winnipeg could see a fresh centimetre or two with 2 to 5 cm possible to the southeast closer to the Ontario border.

Skies will clear out on Christmas Eve as winds ease and temperatures head to a low in the -10 to -15 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

A sharp upper ridge will build into the region next week and bring seasonably mild conditions, though not quite as mild as we’ll see on the weekend.

Beginning on Christmas Day and lasting through much of the week, Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies and daytime highs around the -5 °C mark. Overnight lows will generally fall into the -10 to -15 °C range.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -22 °C.

Warming Up As Christmas Approaches

Temperatures in Winnipeg will climb back above freezing heading into to the weekend before Christmas.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday December 22, 2023
Temperatures will climb back above freezing towards the end of the week in southern Manitoba.

The weather this week will be marked by the depature of an upper trough over the eastern Arctic and the re-establishment of a zonal flow over the Prairies. This will allow a Pacific air mass to gradually scour the cooler air out of the region, sending daytime highs warmer.

Today, the region should see a sunny start with cloud cover gradually pushing into the region through the afternoon. Temperatures should climb to a high around -2 °C this afternoon. Skies will be on the cloudy side to night as a cold front drifts southwards into the region with a low close to -10 °C.

Wednesday will bring cloudier skies as southerly winds pick up to around 30 gusting 50 km/h. Temperatures will be similar to Tuesday; although warmer air is moving in aloft, the surface winds will be a return flow sourced from a departing area of high pressure. Skies will begin to clear out on Wednesday night with temperatures likely steady around -3 °C as a warm front lifts through the region.

The sun will reappear on Thursday as winds ease behind the warm front. Temperatures will climb close to the freezing mark in the afternoon, then drop just a few degrees on Thursday night. Friday will be, more or less, a repeat of Thursday with sunshine, highs near freezing, and light winds.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, a deep southerly flow will send temperatures back above freezing as a low pressure complex devleops to the west. Temperatures will likley climb a few degrees above freezing on Saturday and then dip a bit below freezing as skies cloud over on Saturday night.

Christmas eve will likely bring cloudy skies and a high near freezing as a cold front slowly slides eastwards across the province.

For Christmas Day, Winnipeg should be on the back-side of the cold front. This will mean northerly winds and highs back down in the mid-minus single digits. The region could see some sun through the day as well.

That said, there’s no major cold outbreak on the horizon. Next week looks to stabilize in seasonably mild conditions heading into the last days of the month. No notable snowfall is expected in the next 5 to 10 days.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

No End to the Mild Weather in Sight

The mild weather will continue in Winnipeg with nothing but seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures in the forecast.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Sunday December 17, 2023
A cold front dropping southwards will bring seasonal temperatures back to southern Manitoba…briefly.

A combination of two large-scale pattern features will keep winter at bay over the southern Prairies over the coming week. First, persistent troughing over the eastern Pacific is supporting a general ridging pattern not only over the west coast, but also into the Rockies as well. Secondly, the Polar Vortex remains locked away further north over Baffin Island rather than being positioned in its usual spot over Hudson Bay for this time of year. These two things, working in tandem, are supporting a pattern that keeps the colder winter air locked up well into the Arctic while surges of milder Pacific air repeatedly wash over the Prairies. Little change to this broad, large-scale pattern is in the forecast.

As a result, Winnipeg will continue to see, mostly, more of the same. Today will bring mixed to cloudy skies as an upper trough moves through the region with a high just shy of 0 °C. Skies will clear overnight with temperatures heading to a low in the -10 to -15 °C range. On Saturday, sunshine returns to the region as more warm air pushes across the Prairies. Temperatures will again climb to a high in the -5 to 0 °C range. As a frontal wave drops into central Manitoba, the Red River Valley will see increasing cloudiness heading into Saturday evening.

The warmer air will move through overnight, resulting in a mild low only around -5 °C on Saturday night under mostly cloudy skies.

On Sunday, temperatures will stay more or less steady as a cold front sweeps into the region. Winnipeg should see mixed skies with northwest winds picking up to 30 gusting 50 km/h for the afternoon. Heading into Sunday night, the winds will ease as temperatures head back to a low in the -10 to -15 °C range.

Some flurries are possible with the passage of the cold front, but no accumulating snow is expected.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start off a bit cooler than this week with highs likely in the -10 to -5 °C range, but warmer weather is forecast to push back into the region through the second half of the week. Heading into the days before Christmas, daytime highs could be back up above freezing.

The question abounds on whether or not it will be a white Christmas in Winnipeg. While it doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing enough warmth to get rid of the existing snowpack, odds are there isn’t going to be much snow for Christmas. We’ll see if any notable snow enters the forecast in the days right before the holiday, but if the forecast holds, you may have to find replacement activities for any sledding or skating traditions!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -20 °C.

Pleasant Weather Continues For The Winnipeg Area

December will start with a continuation of the mild weather the region has seen through much of the second half of November. With variable cloudiness in the days ahead, Winnipeg’s highs will keep hovering close to 0 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday December 2, 2023
Mild weather will once again spread eastwards into southern Manitoba for the weekend.

Today will start off with plenty of lingering cloud across the region; it’s part of a band that stretches from southern Manitoba northwest through Saskatchewan and marks roughly the position of the Arctic front draped through the Prairies. Skies will clear a bit later today as the front lifts to the northeast, leaving behind sunshine and light southwesterly winds as temperatures climb to around 0 °C.

Over the next few days, the region can expect variable cloudiness as milder Pacific air gradually pushes through the region. Daytime highs will hover close to freezing, perhaps a degree or two above, and overnight lows will sit in the -5 to -10 °C range. It’s unlikely that any snow or rain will fall in the city this weekend.

Saturday will be windier with southerlies up to around 30 km/h. Otherwise winds should stay light over the coming days.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring more mild weather as an upper ridge builds across the Prairies. Daytime highs in Winnipeg will vary from just below freezing to several degrees above. A sunnier start to the week will likely become cloudier as the warmer air moves into the region.

No notable precipitation is on the horizon. By the end of next week, the upper ridge should begin to collapse which could bring some snow to the Red River Valley to end the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.