Tag: Benign Weather

No End to the Mild Weather in Sight

Brad Leave a comment

The mild weather will continue in Winnipeg with nothing but seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures in the forecast.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Sunday December 17, 2023
A cold front dropping southwards will bring seasonal temperatures back to southern Manitoba…briefly.

A combination of two large-scale pattern features will keep winter at bay over the southern Prairies over the coming week. First, persistent troughing over the eastern Pacific is supporting a general ridging pattern not only over the west coast, but also into the Rockies as well. Secondly, the Polar Vortex remains locked away further north over Baffin Island rather than being positioned in its usual spot over Hudson Bay for this time of year. These two things, working in tandem, are supporting a pattern that keeps the colder winter air locked up well into the Arctic while surges of milder Pacific air repeatedly wash over the Prairies. Little change to this broad, large-scale pattern is in the forecast.

As a result, Winnipeg will continue to see, mostly, more of the same. Today will bring mixed to cloudy skies as an upper trough moves through the region with a high just shy of 0 °C. Skies will clear overnight with temperatures heading to a low in the -10 to -15 °C range. On Saturday, sunshine returns to the region as more warm air pushes across the Prairies. Temperatures will again climb to a high in the -5 to 0 °C range. As a frontal wave drops into central Manitoba, the Red River Valley will see increasing cloudiness heading into Saturday evening.

The warmer air will move through overnight, resulting in a mild low only around -5 °C on Saturday night under mostly cloudy skies.

On Sunday, temperatures will stay more or less steady as a cold front sweeps into the region. Winnipeg should see mixed skies with northwest winds picking up to 30 gusting 50 km/h for the afternoon. Heading into Sunday night, the winds will ease as temperatures head back to a low in the -10 to -15 °C range.

Some flurries are possible with the passage of the cold front, but no accumulating snow is expected.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start off a bit cooler than this week with highs likely in the -10 to -5 °C range, but warmer weather is forecast to push back into the region through the second half of the week. Heading into the days before Christmas, daytime highs could be back up above freezing.

The question abounds on whether or not it will be a white Christmas in Winnipeg. While it doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing enough warmth to get rid of the existing snowpack, odds are there isn’t going to be much snow for Christmas. We’ll see if any notable snow enters the forecast in the days right before the holiday, but if the forecast holds, you may have to find replacement activities for any sledding or skating traditions!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -20 °C.

Pleasant Weather Continues For The Winnipeg Area

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December will start with a continuation of the mild weather the region has seen through much of the second half of November. With variable cloudiness in the days ahead, Winnipeg’s highs will keep hovering close to 0 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday December 2, 2023
Mild weather will once again spread eastwards into southern Manitoba for the weekend.

Today will start off with plenty of lingering cloud across the region; it’s part of a band that stretches from southern Manitoba northwest through Saskatchewan and marks roughly the position of the Arctic front draped through the Prairies. Skies will clear a bit later today as the front lifts to the northeast, leaving behind sunshine and light southwesterly winds as temperatures climb to around 0 °C.

Over the next few days, the region can expect variable cloudiness as milder Pacific air gradually pushes through the region. Daytime highs will hover close to freezing, perhaps a degree or two above, and overnight lows will sit in the -5 to -10 °C range. It’s unlikely that any snow or rain will fall in the city this weekend.

Saturday will be windier with southerlies up to around 30 km/h. Otherwise winds should stay light over the coming days.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring more mild weather as an upper ridge builds across the Prairies. Daytime highs in Winnipeg will vary from just below freezing to several degrees above. A sunnier start to the week will likely become cloudier as the warmer air moves into the region.

No notable precipitation is on the horizon. By the end of next week, the upper ridge should begin to collapse which could bring some snow to the Red River Valley to end the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.

Colder Weather to Push Into Southern Manitoba

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There will be a shift in the weather across southern Manitoba this week as a cold front sweeps through the region and ushers in wintery temperatures. The cold snap will be short-lived, though, with a relatively quick return to near-seasonal conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Thursday November 23, 2023
An Arctic high will begin pushing into the Prairies on Wednesday night and allow colder air to spill southwards through the region.

After a rather busy period over the last few weeks, it’s nice to be back with some time to forecast. I hope you’ve all been able to enjoy the pleasant extended warmth so far this November. The cold weather will come eventually, so it’s nice to keep it at bay as long as possible late into the year.

Heading through the rest of the week, the main weather system will be a clipper-like system that tracks across the southern Prairies on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Daytime highs will continue to sit around 0 °C or a bit warmer as northwest winds taper off and shift to light southerlies. Winnipeg will see plenty of sun today, but some cloud will move in tonight and stick around into Wednesday morning.

A cold front will sweep through the region later on Wednesday, ushering in moderate northwest winds of 30 to 40 km/h. Skies will clear out with the winds and temperatures will begin to drop. An Arctic high will slump into the region, bringing much cooler weather with it.

For the second half of the week, overnight lows will dip into the minus teens; likely into the -15 to -20 °C range Wednesday and Thursday night, and then moderating into the -10 to -15 °C range for Friday night. Daytime highs will also follow suit, dipping into the -5 to -10 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

A disturbance will move into the region on the weekend, bringing some cloud and a chance for some light snow as well. With the cloud will come temperatures that moderate back towards seasonal values, dipping slightly cooler at times.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -12 °C.

Cool Weather Continues in Winnipeg

Brad 1 Comment

A stagnant weather pattern will continue to funnel Arctic air southwards into the Prairies, continuing the cool temperatures across southern Manitoba.

ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday November 1, 2023.
It will be a cool night across southern Manitoba as a ridge of high pressure slides through the region.

A slow-moving vortex over Hudson Bay continues to support an outbreak of Arctic air across the eastern Prairies this week. Between this system and a high-amplitude upper ridge over the west coast, northerly winds through the region will be maintained for a few more days yet.

As a result, temperatures will stay stuck below seasonal values. Today will be the coldest day of the week, the cold air bolstered by the passage of a disturbance yesterday. The high in Winnipeg should reach around -6 °C with temperatures dipping to about -8 to -10 °C by the time kids start heading out to prowl the neighbourhoods for Halloween.

Heading through the rest of the work week, the city will see daytime highs close to the freezing mark and overnight lows dipping into the -5 to -10 °C range. Skies will be mixed over the coming days and winds, aside from a bit of a breeze this evening, will be light.

No notable snowfall is expected, but a few light flurries could be possible through the week.

Long Range Outlook

Little change is expected to the pattern beyond weakening slightly in the days ahead. This will mean that daytime highs should continue to hover at or just below freezing into next week along with overnight lows dipping below -5 °C.

There are some early indications that some snow may be possible early next week; we’ll continue to keep an eye on that system as it develops.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -5 °C.