Warm-Up in Store

There’s no question about it: the biggest upcoming weather story is the big warm-up that’s in store not just for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, but much of North America. After one more cold night tonight, temperatures will move towards seasonal values by the end of the week and then push towards above-normal by the end of the weekend. Given that November just finished up as the 22nd coldest on record that was some 4°C below normal[1], news of a prolonged warmer trend is likely very welcome news for many.

Wednesday
-15°C / -20°C
Mainly sunny; becoming partly cloudy in the evening

Thursday
-8°C / -15°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Friday
-9°C / -15°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Medium-range model consensus is showing high agreement in an above-normal temperature trend through the first half of December.
Medium-range model consensus is showing high agreement in an above-normal temperature trend through the first half of December.

Today will be a relatively cool day courtesy a cold front that passed through Southern Manitoba overnight. Daytime highs will sit near -15°C through the Red River Valley today under mainly sunny skies and relatively light west to northwesterly winds. A ridge of high pressure moving through the region tonight will help temperatures dip to a chilly -20°C overnight.

Southerly winds will develop through the Red River Valley in advance of an approaching warm front quickly advancing across the Prairies. The winds – climbing to only around 20-30km/h – will help our overnight low as relatively “mild” as it is as well as begin ushering in warmer air. Temperatures will climb to around -8°C by Thursday afternoon as the winds gradually diminish under mixed skies. Temperatures will dip to the -15°C on Thursday night.

Looking to the end of the week, Friday appears to be a near-copy of Thursday with light winds, mixed skies and a high of -9 or -8°C and a low once again near -15°C.

Seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures will continue through the weekend alongside a slight chance for some light snow.


  1. We’ll have our own climate summary on the fall of 2014 up later this month.  ↩

Cool Weather Edges Back Towards Seasonal

The shot of cool air that worked its way into Winnipeg in a somewhat unwelcome fashion yesterday will remain entrenched over the region for the next few days, resulting in seasonal to just below seasonal temperatures heading towards Halloween. Fortunately, the weather looks to be drier, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see much more of the white stuff.

Wednesday
4°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy; slight chance of morning flurries
Thursday
2°C / -6°C
Partly cloudy and cool
Friday
4°C / -2°C
Mainly sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon

Today will remain mainly cloudy but, unlike yesterday, our temperatures should manage to sneak just a little bit higher, to around 4 or 5°C[1] with substantially calmer winds. A weak low pressure system skirting along the U.S. border will bring a slight chance of showers to areas in the vicinity, but it looks like rain will likely remain States-side. A chilly night ahead tonight as some of the cloud starts clearing out and we head to a low of around -1°C.

Thursday will be a cool day as an Arctic ridge builds southeastwards into the province. Skies will be partly cloudy with no real chance of precipitation and it will be quite cool as temperatures are only expected to climb to 1 or 2°C. The overnight low will dip down to a very chilly -6 or -7°C under mainly clear skies. Thursday night looks like the low point for our temperatures over the next while.

A Chilly Halloween

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday but it will still be a chilly Halloween evening. The day will start off mainly sunny, but as the Arctic ridge slides off to our east and another low pressure system begins approaching from the west, more cloud will begin pushing in from the west. The temperature will climb to around 4°C by the afternoon and, thanks to the increasing cloud, gradually cool off through the evening.

Preliminary temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening.
Preliminary temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening.

Alongside the increasing cloud coverage will come gradually increasing winds. While early in the evening they’ll be only around 15-20km/h, the wind will gradually increase to 30 gusting 50km/h by mid-evening and then further increasing to 40 gusting 60km/h by late in the evening. The temperature will drop to around -2°C overnight. The wind will make it feel rather cool, despite the fairly seasonal temperatures expected.

Unsettled Weekend

The weekend looks somewhat unpleasant as warmer air tries to work its way back into the province. Saturday looks quite windy and fairly cloudy as temperatures climb into the upper single-digits. Sunday brings some uncertainty as a larger system develops in the northern United States and lifts northeastwards. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal, however it is possible that it ends up being a fairly rainy day. There’s significant disagreement with the models on the timing of this system, though; some bring rain in early on Sunday while others delay the rain until Monday. We’ll be sure to keep an eye on this system as it develops and we’ll take a closer look at it in Friday’s post!


  1. Seasonal highs for late October in Winnipeg sit near 5°C.  ↩

Near-Seasonal Temperatures Return for the Weekend

Cooler temperatures have moved into Southern Manitoba behind a low pressure system that brought a few showers and strong northerly winds as it moved across the Red River Valley yesterday evening. Today will be a cool, dreary return to chilly fall weather, but a gradual moderation of temperatures is in store for the remainder of the weekend.

Friday
7°C / 0°C
Cloudy; chance of drizzle or showers

Saturday
10°C / 6°C
Mainly cloudy

Sunday
14°C / 3°C
Mainly sunny

A less-than-pleasant day is in store for Winnipeg today as breezy northerly winds around 30km/h continue to push a cool air mass southwards into the Red River Valley, leaving us with a dreary day with a high barely above where it starts the day off at. The temperature will struggle to climb to 7 or 8°C today under cloudy skies alongside a slight chance of drizzle or shower activity. Skies will remain mainly cloudy tonight with a chance of a few clear breaks late overnight; the temperature will drop to between 0–2°C for the overnight low.

This animation of 850mb temperatures (running from Friday evening to Saturday evening) shows warmer air pushing eastwards into Manitoba.
This animation of 850mb temperatures (running from Friday evening to Saturday evening) shows warmer air pushing eastwards into Manitoba.

There isn’t too much to say about the weekend other than conditions will gradually improve. Saturday looks fairly cloudy with a high near 10°C and light winds. A partly cloudy night will see the temperature dropping to 6°C or so. Sunday will be quite a pleasant day with temperatures climbing back above normal under mainly sunny skies. Expect a high near 14–15°C and an overnight low on Sunday night near 3°C. At this point, it does look like a low pressure system will move through the Interlake on Sunday, bringing some showers along with it. Current indications are that all of that activity will remain to the north and east of Winnipeg, but we’ll keep an eye on it as the system develops.

Heading into next week looks very nice with temperatures returning to the upper teens as another upper-level ridge builds into the Prairies, spreading mild Pacific air eastwards once again.

Summery Weather Continues

More summery weather is in store this week, just what you were hoping for I’m sure!

Monday will be a pleasant day in southern Manitoba

Monday will be a pleasant day in southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
24°C / 10°C
Mainly Sunny

Today will be a pleasant and uneventful day weather-wise. Temperatures will be in the mid twenties with a light northerly wind and mainly sunny skies. You can thank the surface high pressure system over top of us for the nice day.

Tuesday

Tuesday
28°C / 16°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will be another nice day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures should once again climb into the upper twenties with a light northerly wind and mainly sunny skies. There may be a few pop-up showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, but they will be highly localized. The most favoured area for one of these storms is in the Interlake.

Wednesday

Wednesday
28°C / 18°C
Mainly Sunny

Wednesday will be fairly similar to Tuesday, with temperatures in the upper twenties and mainly sunny skies. The wind will veer to easterly, but won’t be too strong. No precipitation is expected during the day on Wednesday.

Long Range

The long range forecast is looking pretty good. Some models continue to hint at a cool-down sometime in mid to late August, but there are no indications that cooler weather is imminent. In the mean time, normal to above normal weather should continue, which means high temperatures in the mid to upper twenties.