Tag: Flurries

Pleasant Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

We’ll break out of the deep freeze today as things finally warm up a bit as we head into a mostly snow-free, pleasant weekend.

850mb Temperatures

850mb temperatures for this evening from the GEM-REG model. It’s clearly evident that a substantial area of warm air has pushed northwards over Southern Manitoba.

Yesterday’s 1-3cm of snow that fell across the city marked a shift in the long-wave pattern over the Prairies as the flow shifted from a west to northwest flow to a more southwesterly flow. This has allowed warmer air to flood over Southern Manitoba aloft, and as winds pick up this afternoon, we’ll get a chance to mix it down to the surface.

There will be a slight chance of flurries through the day today, but if they happen they’ll be quite light and very scattered about. Winds will pick up midday to around 20-30km/h, which will help mix down warmer air aloft and warm our temperatures up to around -6°C.

Skies will remain mainly cloudy tonight, and temperatures will remain steady near -6 or -7°C.

Winds will remain out of the south or southwest for most of the day tomorrow, keeping our temperatures around -6°C yet again. By late in the afternoon or tomorrow evening, the winds will shift around slightly to the northwest, which will allow our temperatures to drop to a low of -15°C overnight. We’ll be far from a deep freeze, though, as Sunday looks to bring sunshine back to Southern Manitoba as we climb to a daytime high around a more seasonal -10°C.

Cool Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Arctic air will keep temperatures cool through the weekend with daytime highs some 5-7°C below normal. Scattered flurries will be common through the weekend, while a significant lake-effect snowfall event will impact portions of the Whiteshell and Eastern Manitoba.

850mb Temperatures Valid Saturday Morning

850mb temperatures valid Saturday morning. A deep pool of Arctic air will flood across the Prairies this weekend.

As the low that brought rain to Southern Manitoba the past few days pushes northwards into Hudson Bay, it will intensify quite considerably1 and induce a strong northwesterly flow over the Canadian Prairies. This cold air will likely produce isolated scattered flurries, however the largest effect will be strong lake-effect snow bands, primarily from the basins of Lake Winnipeg. These lake-effect bands will mainly effect the Bisset region and slowly push northwards towards Berens River as the winds back slightly to westerly through the weekend. Substantial amounts of snow are possible with these bands, with the potential for anywhere from 15-30cm of snow possible in areas that see a band have a particularly long residence time over them.

Daytime highs over the next few days will sit within a degree or two of 0°C, with overnight lows near -6 or -7°C. No significant improvement in temperatures is expected until potentially early next week as a low pressure system moves through the Central Prairies and brings ever so slightly warmer air back to the region.

  1. It’s currently forecast to deepen from a 982mb low this morning to a 967mb low tomorrow morning. ↩

Slowly Improving Weather in Store

Brad Leave a comment

The weather will slowly improve over the next couple days as some warm air begins to slowly push across the Prairies.

3hr. Cumulative Precipitation for late this afternoon

3hr. cumulative precipitation from the RDPS for late this afternoon.

Today will remain mostly cloudy across Southern Manitoba with two main features to pay attention to. The first feature is a low pressure system that will slide from Southern Saskatchewan into North Dakota, bringing with it a chance of showers through southwest Manitoba through the morning and into the early afternoon. The second feature will be a trough slumping southwards through the Interlake into the Whiteshell. The southern extent of this trough will move through the Red River Valley in the late afternoon and evening, and as it enters the area, a few scattered convective showers or flurries will develop along it and move through the region. Whether we see rain or snow will depend on the exact timing of the system and what the temperature is; either way, accumulations will fairly insignificant and the showers likely won’t be widespread. Daytime highs will be around 6°C this afternoon.

After these systems pass, we’ll see skies slowly clear out overnight as temperatures drop to around the -3°C mark. A ridge of high pressure begins working it’s way into Manitoba; skies will remain mainly sunny as temperatures slowly climb. Tomorrow we should see daytime highs around 9°C through the Red River Valley, and increasing up to around 11°C for Friday. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds on Friday as a weak system brings some cloud through the Red River Valley as it passes through central Manitoba.

The weekend looks relatively average, with no indications so far that any significant precipitation events are in store for us over the next week.

Improving Weather

Brad Leave a comment

Southern Manitoba will see improving conditions today and round out the work week with nice conditions and near-normal temperatures.

Ridge Dominating Southern Manitoba

Model 3hr. QPF & MSLP w/Surface analysis valid 00Z Thursday April 19th

There will be a slight chance of some light snow this morning over the western half of the Red River Valley as a weak short wave slumps into North Dakota. As it exits the province, clouds will clear and we’ll be left with a sunny afternoon with a high near 8°C.

Clear skies will be the weather story for the rest of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds in from Northern Saskatchewan. We’ll have an overnight low near -6°C tonight and warm back up to a repeat of today on Thursday, with a high near 7°C. Rinse and repeat for Thursday night. As a system pushes into the NW United States, slightly warmer air pushes into Southern Manitoba and we’ll likely see our daytime high bumped up a few degrees to around 10°C.

Saturday brings with it a chance of rain as an upper trough swings across the Prairies. We’ll keep an eye on that as the week progresses!

In short, it’ll be a sunny, albeit a little cool, rest of the week!