Seasonal Temperatures & Dreary Weather Rounds Out The Week

The remainder of the work week will bring fairly seasonal temperatures to Winnipeg as the weather slowly improves. For the weekend, however, another blast of well above-seasonal temperatures is on the way!

Today will see a continuation of yesterday’s fog and drizzle patches through the morning hours, but it should dissipate with conditions improving by late morning as a weak cold front passes through the region. Behind that, we’ll be left with mainly cloudy conditions and light winds as the temperature climbs to around 3°C. The cloud cover will stick around overnight as we head to a low near –1°C.

Thursday will see a chance of flurries in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a weak shortwave drifts over the region in the northwest flow aloft. Northwesterly winds to around 20km/h will accompany a very close to seasonal high of 1°C. If we do see snow, it won’t accumulate to much, if anything at all.

12hr. Cumulative QPF valid 00Z Friday November 13, 2015
Flurries are possible through the day on Thursday while a much larger system passes through Ontario. Accumulations are expected to be light.

After the shortwave passes through on Thursday, skies will begin to clear, although with so much low-level moisture in the region, exact timing will be tricky. Skies will likely clear out at some point Thursday evening/overnight, however the cloud might persist into Friday morning before clearing. This timing will affect our overnight low forecast; if things clear out earlier, then we should see a low near –5°C or so, while if the cloud sticks around through the night, the low will be closer to –1 or –2° C.

Regardless of how Friday starts, we’ll be heading towards a mainly sunny high of 3 or 4 °C. Friday’s overnight low will sit near 0 to +1°C as much warmer air begins building in for the weekend.

More Warm Weather This Weekend And Beyond

Heading into the weekend, temperatures will soar again as the large-scale northwesterly flow that was in place shifts to be a more zonal, westerly flow, replacing cooler air with more mild, Pacific-sourced weather.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook valid November 17 to November 24, issued 12Z November 9, 2015
The NAEFS continues to forecast above-normal temperatures for Manitoba in the 8-14 day time range.

Generally speaking, daytime highs should climb into the upper single digits for both Saturday and Sunday which, while not sounding particularly warm, will be anywhere from 7–10°C above normal for this time of year.

Another low pressure system will work its way into southern Manitoba early next week, and while most of the precipitation looks like it will remain well north of the Red River Valley, the pattern does look like we may once again see the return of low cloud, drizzle and fog. It’s too early to tell, but just in case, you’d better get out there and enjoy the sun this weekend before it gets covered up again!

Spring Storm Marks A Return to Form

A storm system pushing through Southern Manitoba tonight will bring snow, rain and everything in between to Southern Manitoba tonight, marking a significant shift in the upper-level flow that will bring seasonal to above seasonal temperatures through the weekend and into next week.

7°C / +2°C
Increasing cloud. Rain beginning this evening. 10-15mm.

10°C / 0°C
Clearing in the afternoon; chance of showers.

11°C / 0°C
Mainly sunny. Chance of showers overnight.

First Significant Rain of the Year

Today will be a pleasant day; high temperatures will sit around 6 or 7°C this afternoon with mainly sunny skies giving way to increasing cloudiness this evening. Winds will begin to pick up this afternoon to around 30km/h. The big story, though, is the low pressure system that will track through tonight.

A major low pressure system will begin pushing into Southern Manitoba tonight. This system, marking the transition into a warmer weather pattern, will spread significant rain and snow through the province during the overnight hours. Things will start off in the afternoon through the Parkland region with snow spreading eastwards from Saskatchewan. As the system pushes towards the Interlake and Red River Valley, precipitation will extend southwards, primarily as rain and then push eastwards through the remainder of the night. Winds will also be fairly strong, with sustained winds around 30-40km/h and gusts up to 60km/h.

Multiple precipitation types will be coming into play again with this system. The primary rain-snow line, at this point, looks like it will sit 50-100km north of the Trans-Canada highway. This line is not set in stone, however, and will likely meander north and south as temperature profiles change and precipitation intensifies and subsides. Areas near the rain-snow line may see precipitation flip from one to the other multiple times. With this low pressure system freezing rain is not expected, but ice pellets or a rain/snow mix are entirely possible.

Expected precipitation types for tonight's storm system.
Expected precipitation types for tonight’s storm system.

Precipitation, while relatively short-lived, will be fairly intense with this system. The heaviest axis of precipitation looks to extend from Parkland Manitoba, through the southern Interlake and northern Red River Valley and then through SE Manitoba into NW Ontario. For those on the snow side of the rain/snow line in Parkland Manitoba (including Dauphin), snowfall amounts will peak at around 10-20cm with amounts tapering off towards the northern Interlake and the rain/snow line. For the areas that will see rain, amounts will be split into three main groups:

LocationRainfall Amount
Extreme SW Manitoba (Melita)<= 5mm
SW Manitoba & Southern RRV5-10mm
Winnipeg/Northern RRV & SE Manitoba10-15mm

Saturday will start off mainly cloudy with mist and fog scattered through the Red River Valley. There will be a slight chance of showers, particularly through the northern half of the valley through Winnipeg and into the Southern Interlake. For any activity that does occur, however, amounts will be fairly minimal. Winds will be relatively light and skies will begin to clear for a sunnier afternoon. The temperature will top out around 10°C.

Saturday night will see temperatures dip to around 0°C with light winds. It’s likely that the substantial precipitation coupled with rapid snow melt and calm winds will produce fairly extensive fog through the Red River Valley. Fog is notoriously difficult to predict, so we’ll keep tabs on things into the evening hours and try to give as much heads up one way or another as to what to expect. Just be aware that for travel overnight Saturday into Sunday, fog may play into the picture.

Warmer Weather Arrives

We’ll start pushing into the significantly warmer weather on Sunday as another low pressure system approaches, bringing with it another pulse of warm air. Temperatures in Winnipeg will climb to around 11°C on Sunday with light winds under mainly sunny skies[1]. Temperatures on Sunday night will drop to around 0°C once again, but we do have an ever so slight chance of seeing some showers overnight as a disturbance tracks along the U.S. border.

Daytime highs should sit near to just above normal through much of next week, generally in the 10-15°C range. No threats for precipitation are expected until the second half of the week.

  1. If we end up with fog on Saturday night, we’ll see a cloudier Sunday morning, however skies should clear by late morning for a sunny afternoon.  ↩

Unsettled Weather Ahead

A warm but unsettled few days are ahead as mild Pacific air surges across Southern Manitoba.

850mb Temperatures valid this evening

850mb temperatures from the NAM valid for early this evening.

Snow will taper off early this morning with a lingering chance of a stray flurry or two sticking around through much of the day across the northern half of the Red River Valley. Southerly winds will pick up through the day to 30-40*km/h as the warm front alluded to in Wednesday’s post pushes into the Valley. Temperatures will warm up quickly as the front passes with temperatures climbing to around -4 or -3°C, a few degrees warmer than the seasonal normal of about -6°C. Temperatures will remain steady through the night as that south wind continues to keep us in the warm air.

Another disturbance will pass through the northern Red River Valley tonight, however there’s some uncertainty to the areas that precipitation will fall. It currently looks like most, or all, of the precipitation will fall north of Winnipeg, focused in the Interlake region. There’s a slight chance that it will fall a bit further south, clipping Winnipeg and other areas in the northern half of the Red River Valley. If any areas in the Red River Valley are affected by this disturbance, they’ll almost certainly have to deal with freezing rain as there will a massive AFL (Above Freezing Level) just off the surface where temperatures will be nearly +10. With precipitation falling through it, the AFL will cool to 2-3°C, which is still more than warm enough to melt any snow that will be falling into it. Potentail freezing rain accumulations will be light but not insignificant at 1-2mm. Just to reiterate, the risk area for freezing rain will likely be confined to the northern half of the Red River Vally.

In addition to the weather from this disturbance, there will be the potential for freezing drizzle through the entire RRV as warm, moist air overruns our cold snowpack.

Saturday and Sunday will be cloudy days with beautifully warm temperatures for this time of the year. Daytime highs will sit right around 0°C. There will be a slight chance of non-accumulating flurries Saturday night into Sunday, otherwise no significant weather is expected. As winds lighten up, there will be the potential for fog patches through the valley in the overnight hours.

A storm system looks to move into the area on Monday morning, bringing rain or snow in the morning and snow in the afternoon. There’s still uncertainty in the track of the system and how much of the precipitation will impact the Red River Valley, so we’ll be sure to provide an update or two in the comments below through the weekend. The one thing that is certain is that this system will mark a return to more seasonal temperatures as cooler air sweeps over Southern Manitoba in it’s wake.

Mild Weather To Bring Cloudy Skies…Again

A southwest flow aloft is bringing warmer air back to the Prairie provinces, however with plenty of snow around to melt, our sunshine won’t last long…

A shot of sunshine in Winnipeg; a rather elusive feat as of late. The sun will go back into hiding this weekend. Photo credit: Instagram user @shwaahall.

We’ll see mainly sunny skies today as temperatures climb to right around the 0°C mark with winds out of the south at 30km/h. As winds subside this evening after sunset, stratus clouds and fog will begin to develop in the Red River Valley as all the moisture from melting snowpack is stuck underneath the inversion and is forced to condense as the temperatures drop. Expect an overnight low of –5°C tonight. The fog patches will stick around the RRV into Saturday morning before lifting.

Clouds will stick around for the day on Saturday as temperatures climb to about –1°C. Fog patches will likely redevelop on Saturday night as temperatures dip down to –5°C again. Sunday looks to be a mainly cloudy day as well, with a daytime high once again right near the freezing mark.

For now it looks like we may see the cloud get scoured out of the Valley as a surface trough moves through on Monday; for now, enjoy the sunshine today…we likely won’t see it for another couple days.