Tag: Rain

Seasonably Warm with Mixed Weather

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Winnipeg will see seasonably warm temperatures return on Friday, sandwiched between unsettled conditions on Friday and Sunday.

A passing upper-level low will bring mixed skies to Winnipeg today with breezy westerly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h. The city will see a chance of showers through the day, although the best odds will be through the morning hours. With the “cooler” upper low over the region, daytime highs will return to seasonal values near 25°C. There might be the risk of an odd lightning strike in the afternoon, but no organized thunderstorm threat exists.

The wind will ease this evening as temperatures head to a low near 16°C under partly cloudy skies.

On Saturday, a ridge of high pressure will move across the region. It will bring sunny skies with temperatures climbing back towards the 30°C mark. Winds won’t be an issue, keeping light out of the west through the day. Temperatures will stay warm on Saturday night with a low near 19°C under increasing cloudiness.

Winnipeg will see a chance of showers or thunderstorms midday Sunday as a trough of low pressure moves through. Timing will be crucial to where that threat develops; if convection holds off until the afternoon, there’s a better chance that the activity will develop east of the Red River into the southeastern corner of the province. We recommend you keep an eye on ECCC’s thunderstorm outlook product in our bulletin viewer Saturday afternoon and Sunday for the latest updates on the thunderstorm and severe weather potential. The chance for showers may redevelop later in the day when a cold front swings through the region.

Aside from the convection, it will be a fairly pleasant day. Temperatures will climb to a high near 29°C with comfortable humidity and southerly winds of 30 gusting 50 km/h shifting to westerly 30 gusting 50 km/h behind the trough.

Long Range Outlook

Settled conditions will move into southern Manitoba to start next week with below-seasonal temperatures moving in on Monday behind the cold front. More heat will return mid-week with variable cloudiness and perhaps the occasional chance of thunderstorms.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Hot and (Briefly) Muggy Conditions Return

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Winnipeg will see more heat with building humidity before a cold front passes through on Thursday, bringing a chance of showers or thunderstorms.

An upper ridge over the province will bring another hot day to Winnipeg. The city will see daytime highs near 30°C under mainly sunny skies today. Dew points will gradually rise through the day as southerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h draw humidity northwards. This will produce humidex values approaching the mid-30s this afternoon. The wind will persist out of the south tonight near 20 km/h with increasing cloud. This will result in a warm, muggy night with a low near 21°C.

There’s a lot of diversity in the model forecast solutions for Wednesday night. Some models have no precipitation for Winnipeg, while others sustain an area of thunderstorms from southern Saskatchewan into the region. Either way, if there is going to be any precipitation it likely won’t arrive in Winnipeg until early Thursday morning. The synoptic pattern isn’t particularly favourable for sustaining nocturnal convection, but if the thunderstorms in Saskatchewan can organize early enough, they may be able to last all the way to the Red River Valley. We’ll keep an eye on it, and we’d also recommend checking out Environment & Climate Change Canada’s take on it in their thunderstorm outlook, available in our bulletin viewer.

On Thursday, a cold front will push across the province early in the day. Behind the front, moderate westerly winds of 30 to 40 gusting 50 km/h will clear skies and usher in a drier air mass. Temperatures will still be warm with a high near 29°C, but the drier conditions will make it more comfortable. Winds will continue out of the southwest at 10 to 20 km/h on Thursday night. Temperatures will head to a low near 17°C with increasing cloud.

Friday will bring breezy conditions to southern Manitoba again as a low pressure system passes to the north. Westerly winds will pick back up into the 20 to 30 km/h range in the Red River Valley with mixed to cloudy skies. There will be a chance of showers with this system as well as moisture wraps around the low. Potential rainfall amounts amounts don’t look particularly significant; just light accumulations of a couple mm look possible. Temperatures will be cooler with a high near 25 or 26°C.

Skies will clear Friday night with diminishing winds. Winnipeg will see a low near 16°C.

Long Range Outlook

Warm weather will return to the region on Saturday with highs returning to the 30°C mark with mostly sunny skies. Showers or thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday with a low pressure system forecast to move across southern Manitoba.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Unsettled Conditions Return to Winnipeg

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The dry conditions of just a couple weeks ago are almost a distant memory with more showers and thunderstorms possible through the second half of the week.

More showers are on the way for Winnipeg later today. The city will see cloudy skies as a low pressure system works its way across the province. By midday, scattered to widespread showers will develop ahead a trough of low pressure with the chance of embedded thunderstorms. The unsettled conditions should clear out by late in the afternoon with the skies clearing out a bit after that.

Temperatures will be cooler today; Winnipeg will have southerly winds to around 20 km/h and a high near 23°C. It will continue to be a bit muggy today with dew point temperatures near 18°C with only slight relief tonight. The city will see a low near 16°C with partly cloudy skies.

Thursday will be a bit of a tricky weather day over the region. Warmer weather will return to Winnipeg with temperatures climbing to around 28°C with muggy dew points near 18 or 19°C. Winds will pick up out of the southwest into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

The southwesterly flow over southern Manitoba will push a broad frontal wave into the province. As it moves into place, a low pressure system will push into western Manitoba from Saskatchewan. The interaction of these two systems will produce a conditional threat of thunderstorms over the region late in the day. There will be a chance that these thunderstorms, should they form, could be severe. Unfortunately, the subtle nature of the interactions that will lead to thunderstorm development can’t be forecast with too much accuracy this far out. Be sure to check out ECCC’s thunderstorm outlook on our Bulletin Viewer on Thursday morning for a complete discussion on the day’s thunderstorm potential.

Warmer weather will return to southern Manitoba on Thursday.
Warmer weather will return to southern Manitoba on Thursday.

Once the thunderstorm threat diminishes on Thursday evening, the city will see partly cloudy skies with temperatures heading to a low near 15°C. Winds will persist out of the southwest near 20 km/h through the night.

Partly cloudy skies will be in place for Winnipeg on Friday, although cloudier conditions won’t be too far to the north. Temperatures will reach a high near 24°C with westerly winds of 30 gusting 50 km/h. Of note will be that those westerly winds will finally flush the humidity out of the region, bringing a return of more comfortable conditions.

Winnipeg will see a few clouds on Friday night as winds ease and temperatures drop to a low near 13°C.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness this weekend with a chance of a few showers on Sunday. Settled conditions will move in after that with plenty of sunshine through next week. Temperatures will be near-seasonal through the weekend, but a warm-up is forecast by mid-week with daytime highs returning to the 30°C mark. Humidity levels are forecast to stay low through much of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Severe Thunderstorm Threat To Start the Week

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Winnipeg’s week will start off with hot and humid conditions developing ahead of a trough of low pressure. As it moves into the region, it will bring a risk of severe thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon. Unsettled conditions will continue through Tuesday before settling for Wednesday.

Today’s main weather-maker will be a trough of low pressure slowly working into the region. To start the day, the city might see some showers or thunderstorms if the overnight convection that started in Saskatchewan makes it this far. Then, temperatures will rise into the upper 20s through the morning with increasingly humid conditions. As the trough slumps southwards this afternoon, it will bring a broad severe thunderstorm threat to the region. The hot and humid conditions will provide ample energy for thunderstorms, the trough will focus development, and winds will be aligned in a way that will support long-lived thunderstorms. All manners of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and into the evening. Be sure to stay aware of any watches or warnings issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada.

ECCC is forecasting a threat of severe thunderstorms over southern Manitoba today.
ECCC is forecasting a threat of severe thunderstorms over southern Manitoba today.

You can view Environment and Climate Change Canada’s thunderstorm outlook and discussion for today in our Bulletin Viewer.

The thunderstorm threat will persist into the evening with the thunderstorm activity moving out of the province near midnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near 19°C with light winds.

Showers or thunderstorms are on the way for much of the Red River Valley on Tuesday as a low pressure system moves along the American border. Temperatures will be cooler near 23°C, but the humid conditions will stay in place. The city will see light northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 km/h through the day. Heading into the night, the city will still see a good chance for showers. As the low moves off to the east, winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 30 gusting 50 km/h and persist into Wednesday morning. Winnipeg should see a low near 16°C with some of the humidity easing overnight.

The city will see a chance for showers Wednesday morning, then skies will clear midday leaving the city with plenty of sun. Temperatures will climb to a high near 24 or 25°C with winds easing to around 20 km/h in the afternoon. The winds will usher the humidity out, making for more comfortable conditions in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near 15°C on Wednesday night with a few clouds and light winds.

While many parts of the Red River Valley will appreciate rain, it’s always difficult to pinpoint where – and how much – any one place will get when dealing with convective systems like these. That said, it seems possible that several areas may see 15 to 35 mm of rain by Wednesday morning. Locally, some areas could see less or more depending on how exactly the convection develops.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week will bring daytime highs in the upper 20s and overnight lows in the mid- to upper-teens. Another low pressure passing through on Thursday night will bring another chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region. Looking towards the weekend, Saturday looks quite nice, but by Sunday hot and unstable conditions are forecast to return to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.