Tag: Rain

Week’s Rainy Start Leads to Much Cooler Weather

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More rain will move through the region today, followed by northwest winds and much cooler conditions.

Rain will move through the region today as a Colorado Low moves into NW Ontario. The rain will spread from southwest to northeast across the Red River Valley and have a sharp edge on the northwestern side. This will result in rainfall accumulations dropping from around 5 mm to nothing over a short distance. Winnipeg should see around 5 mm of rain, although the city could see a bit more if the band ends up shifting a bit west or east.

Generally speaking, the eastern Red River Valley into the southeast corner of the province will see 5 to 10 mm of rain. Narrow convective banding could result in localized accumulations of 10 to 20 mm. The western Red River Valley will see amounts generally around 5 to 10 mm in the southwest diminishing to nothing near Portage la Prairie.

While the NAM rainfall accumulations in the Red River Valley for today might end up a tad on the high side, the areas that will see rain look well-represented.
While the NAM rainfall accumulations in the Red River Valley for today might end up a tad on the high side, the areas that will see rain look well-represented.

Aside from the rain, highs today will be a seasonably cool 7°C in Winnipeg. A brisk northwest wind will develop through the day, picking up to 30 gusting 50 km/h this afternoon. The wind will then increase to 40 gusting 60 km/h this evening. While the rain will taper off later today, the chance for showers (or eventually flurries) will persist overnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near +2°C.

Cloudy skies will continue in Winnipeg on Tuesday with a continued chance for some scattered showers or flurries. The moderate northwest winds will continue and temperatures will cool with a high of only 5°C. Skies will stay cloudy on Tuesday night with winds beginning to ease as temperatures head to a low near 0°C.

The sun might be able to poke out on Wednesday, but Winnipeg will likely continue to see mainly cloudy skies. The cold air will continue to push into the region, keeping highs cool at just +3°C. Winds, while lighter than Tuesday, should still persist out of the northwest at 20 to 30 km/h. The cloud cover will begin to break up a bit on Wednesday night as the winds finally ease. Winnipeg will see a low near -3°C on Wednesday night.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week should bring mixed skies to the city and dry conditions. The cool weather will persist on Thursday, but seasonal temperatures may return (alongside some cloud) for the end of the work week into the weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -2°C.

A Mild Weekend Before Cooler Weather Returns

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Winnipeg will see seasonably mild temperatures this weekend before more rain and cooler weather returns.

Winnipeg will get to enjoy a comparatively pleasant weekend when compared to the last! The city will see daytime highs in the low teens right through the weekend and overnight lows hovering a bit above 0°C. This morning’s southeast winds near 30 km/h will ease later today, then stay light through the rest of the weekend.

A trough moving through today will keep skies overcast across the region today. While there may be a slight risk of some late-day rain for Winnipeg, it’s more likely that any precipitation develops to the east and northeast. Some sun will return for Saturday with mixed skies.

The Red River Valley will see a chance for more accumulating rainfall on Sunday night.

On Sunday, a low pressure system will move across the Dakotas into Minnesota, spreading more cloud back into the region. On Sunday night, winds pick up out of the north and some rain is likely over the Red River Valley. There’s uncertainty with amounts at this point, but 5 to 15 mm across the region seems likely.

Long Range Outlook

More rain is possible on Monday as colder air begins to push southeastwards across the Prairies. The rest of the week will likely bring mixed to cloudy skies with several lake-effect precipitation events developing off of the Manitoba Lakes through the week. Daytime highs will dip to the mid- to low single digits with overnight lows hovering around the freezing mark.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 9°C while the seasonal overnight low is -1°C.

Cleanup Continues With Cool and Cloudy Conditions

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Southern Manitoba will continue to see plenty of cloud cover as the region continues to clean up after the historic winter storm last week.

Another low pressure system crossing the Prairies will keep Winnipeg locked under cloudy skies for the next few days. Between the lack of sun and the new snow pack covering the region, temperatures will stay well below seasonal averages. Over the next few days daytime highs will hover near 4°C while low dip to around freezing.

Winds won’t be much of an issue the next while, either. Light southerlies will persist today, switching to northerly on Tuesday as the low passes. Northwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h will develop for Tuesday, but a ridge of high pressure will bring light winds for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Cooler daytime highs will occur over the fresh snowpack in southern Manitoba and North Dakota.
Cooler daytime highs will occur over the fresh snowpack in southern Manitoba and North Dakota.

The only notable weather will be as the low moves through tonight into Tuesday. A wintery mix of light precipitation will move through the Red River Valley overnight, leaving behind a chance of scattered rain showers or flurries for Tuesday. Accumulations will generally be light with 1 to 3 mm for most areas, but a narrow band of 5 to 10 mm may develop along the low track. The heaviest precipitation will remain south of Winnipeg, but whether it occurs in southern Manitoba versus North Dakota is still questionable.

Long Range Outlook

The sun will attempt to reappear in the latter half of the week as warmer air pushes eastwards across the Prairies. Exactly how warm temperatures are able to climb will depend on how much snow remains on the ground. More snow will mean temperatures stay locked into the low single digits. For any areas that are able to eliminate much of the snow pack, highs could climb into the low teens.

No precipitation is expected through the latter half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 11°C while the seasonal overnight low is 0°C.

Major Winter Storm Set to Hit Southern Manitoba, North Dakota

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A potent Colorado low will bring the first blast of winter to southern Manitoba in the form of a high-impact storm.

A developing Colorado Low will spread several waves of precipitation across southern Manitoba over the next few days. It all begins later today as light rain moves into the Red River Valley from the west.1 The rain will weaken overnight, but the next wave of precipitation will surge northwards early Thursday. This will fall as rain over SE Manitoba and change to snow across the Red River Valley. For many areas, it likely means a winter mix through the day.

Forecast precipitation amounts are high, with 15 to 25 mm forecast for the region. Any areas that see more of this as snow than rain could end up with a good 10 to 15 cm of wet, heavy snow by the end of the day. In Winnipeg, it looks likely that the city will see a mix of rain and snow through much of the day, changing to snow at night.

Another wave of precipitation will move through on Friday, bringing more rain and snow to the region. Another 15 to 30 mm is possible Thursday night through Friday, bringing storm-total precipitation into the 30 to 50 mm range.

Regardless of what form it takes, a lot more water is on the way for southern Manitoba.
Regardless of what form it takes, a lot more water is on the way for southern Manitoba.

Where exactly the transition from snow to rain occurs will need to be determined as the event itself develops, but we feel this is the most likely outcome. Different areas will see varying amounts of snow and snow accumulation based on where that line sets up. In the hardest hit areas, snowfall in excess of 25 cm may be possible. As mentioned before, the snow will be heavy and wet. Other areas may see upwards of 50 mm of rain. No matter how it falls, a lot more water is on the way for southern Manitoba.

Follow our twitter account for short-form updates as this system develops. If you are travelling in the coming days, know that the weather will be similarly poor across eastern North Dakota and adverse to dangerous driving conditions may develop.

In addition the precipitation, this storm will bring strong northerly winds and cool temperatures.

The cooler air will surge into the region today, sending temperatures falling to +4°C by the end of the afternoon. As the precipitation moves in tonight, temperatures should fall further to around +1°C by Thursday morning. Through the rest of the work week, temperatures will hover within a degree or two of the 0°C mark.

Winds will pick up out of the north into the 30 to 40 km/h range today, then strengthen to 40 gusting 60 km/h on Thursday. On Friday, winds may reach 50 gusting 70 km/h in some areas, especially in the lee of the lakes. In areas where these strong winds can combine with snow, visibilities will be severely restricted and the winds may produce damage add stress above and beyond the heavy loading from the wet snow.

One of the larger areas of uncertainty is on Friday. Forecast models diverge on where exactly the low centre goes, and some are bringing it relatively far west into southeastern Manitoba. If that occurred, it would be likely that Winnipeg, the eastern Red River Valley, and the southeastern corner of the province would be spared from much of the precipitation. We’ll be keeping an eye on things to see how they develop.

Long Range Outlook

A wintery mix of precipitation will likely persist through much of Saturday, tapering off to a chance of showers or flurries on Sunday. Temperatures will remain cool with highs of just 2 or 3°C and lows near +1°C. No significant precipitation is forecast into next week, although temperatures will remain well below seasonal values right into the end of the work week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 12°C while the seasonal overnight low is 1°C.

  1. West of the Red River Valley, it will fall as snow instead. ↩