Tag: Snow

Roller Coaster Pattern Setting Up

Brad Leave a comment

This week will feature wild swings in the weather. Conditions will range from warm to chilly to snowy, with the weather varying from one day to the next.

A low pressure system will bring light snow to southern Manitoba on Monday

A low pressure system will bring light snow to southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday

Chance of Snow Late
-10°C / -18°C

Today will be a bit cooler than the conditions we’ve experienced lately. High temperatures will be around the -10°C mark, with southerly winds. We’ll also see some snow begin to move into Western Manitoba from Saskatchewan in the morning or early afternoon. Total accumulations in Western Manitoba are expected to range from 2 to 5cm. The Red River Valley will be right on the edge of this area of snow, so we may end up with a couple centimetres if the snow pushes into the valley.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Decreasing Cloudiness
-11°C / -25°C

Tuesday will remain on the cooler side, though temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal. Highs will once again be near -10C, with a breezy north-west wind, but no precipitation is expected. We’ll cool down into the minus twenties on Tuesday night, but those cold temperatures will be short-lived.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy. Chance of Flurries. Risk of Freezing Rain or Ice Pellets.
2°C / -18°C

By Wednesday a powerful low pressure system will send warm air cascading across the Prairies. The cold air from Wednesday morning will be scoured out from Southern Manitoba by the afternoon as temperatures rise above zero in most areas. However, this warm air will be accompanied by very strong winds. Southerly winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h in the morning will switch to westerly winds of 40-50km/h gusting to 60-70km/h in the afternoon. These warm temperatures should make the snow more difficult to blow around, though some blowing is possible in the morning before we warm up.

Some light snow will be possible on Wednesday in association with this low pressure system. Larger snowfall amounts will be possible if the system tracks further south than currently expected. In addition to the snow, there may even be a bit of freezing rain or ice pellets because that warm air may melt snowflakes as they descend from the clouds. Unfortunately, the cold front associated with this low will pass through on Wednesday night, sending in colder air for Thursday.

Thursday and Beyond

Warmer than normal weather is being forecast by the NAEFS model for the second half of January
Warmer than normal weather is being forecast by the NAEFS model for the second half of January

Thursday looks to be our coldest day for the next while, with high temperatures near -20C and gusty winds making it feel much cooler. However, besides Thursday It appears we will continue to see temperatures near or slightly above normal for the next while. Long range models continue to suggest that the second half of January will be warmer than normal, though we will still likely see the odd cold day here or there. No major weather systems are in the forecast, but this pattern will probably continue to send a parade of clipper systems coming out of Alberta, bringing the chance for light snow every few days.

Snow Ushers In Brutal Cold Snap

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Snow will the the story today as another system moves across Manitoba bringing close to 10cm to Winnipeg and lesser amounts southwards towards the International Border. The warm temperatures that we’ll see today will quickly be replaced by one of the most unpleasant cold snaps of the year; while temperatures won’t be the coldest we’ve seen, they’ll be coupled with a strong wind that will produce some of the coldest feeling weather of the winter.

Friday

-11°C / -23°C
5-10cm of snow. Windy with blowing snow in the morning and evening.
Saturday

-22°C / -33°C
Sunny, windy and very cold.
Sunday

-27°C / -30°C
Mainly sunny. Extremely cold.

Friday: Snow & Blowing Snow


Snowfall accumulations aross Southern Manitoba; totals for the period of Thursday night through Friday evening.
Snowfall accumulations aross Southern Manitoba; totals for the period of Thursday night through Friday evening.

Snow will be the story today as a pair of low pressure systems move in tandem through Manitoba; one in the Northern half of the province and the other travelling near the United States border. They will work together to produce an extremely wide swath of snow that covers nearly the entire province. The heaviest snow will track through the “usual” suspects: Parkland Manitoba (particularly near Dauphin) SE through the Southern Interlake and then off towards Pinawa and into NW Ontario.

Along the axis of heaviest snow, around 10–15cm will fall, with the higher amounts closer to the Ontario border thanks to the merging of the two low pressure systems. Winnipeg will sit right on the southern edge of the axis of heaviest snow, so we’ll likely see total amounts by this evening very close to 10cm. Amounts will taper off relatively quickly as one goes south; areas near the U.S. border will see only around 2–5cm of snow.

In tandem with the snow will be mild temperatures and strong winds. Here in Winnipeg the temperature will climb to a comparatively balmy –11 or –10°C while temperatures in the Southern Red River Valley may see as high as –5 or –4°C. These warm temperatures will be ushered in by the strong winds we’re seeing this morning out of the south at around 40km/h with gusts to 60km/h. This wind will produce blowing snow in open areas of the Red River Valley this morning which will produce near-zero visibilities. As is usual, highways running west-east will be hardest hit. The wind will taper off midday and we’ll see a fairly pleasant afternoon with some light snow, mild temperatures and light winds.

Things will deteriorate quickly in the evening as the cold front slumps southwards. Extremely cold air will begin pushing into the Red River Valley as winds pick up out of the northwest to 30–40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. This, combined with the freshly fallen snow, will produce widespread blowing snow through much of the Red River Valley through the evening and overnight hours. Visibilites will be near-zero in some areas and, in general, highway travel will be difficult. If you need to travel tomorrow night, carry a winter survival kit and give yourself lots of time to reach your destination.

Brutal Cold Returns for the Weekend

The GDPS 850mb temperatures show an extremely cold Arctic air mass moving over Southern Manitoba this weekend.
The GDPS 850mb temperatures show an extremely cold Arctic air mass moving over Southern Manitoba this weekend.

After the snow and wind moves out tonight, we’ll be left with absolutely brutal cold moving into the region. Although the temperatures won’t be quite as cold as the last shot we got, they’ll be paired with winds in the range of 15–30km/h which will make it feel significantly colder. The temperature will slowly fall all day Saturday from whatever it is in the morning (close to –22°C or so) until we hit our overnight low on Saturday night of around –33°C. Combined with the wind, it will feel closer to around –45 by early sunday morning.

Sunday will see temperatures recover to around –26°C thanks to a little bit of cloud pushing back into the region from the north. Winds will be 15–20km/h mainly out of the west. We’ll drop to around -32°C on Sunday night under mainly clear skies.

The brutal winter of 2013/14 continues.

New Year…Same Old News

Brad Leave a comment

Happy New Year! Hope you didn’t expect any significant shift in our weather pattern because the cold air is here to stay. A brief reprieve may be seen as a system slides through by week’s end, but the cold air is set to return behind it.

Wednesday

-27°C / -34°C
Mainly sunny; cold.
Thursday

-24°C / -26°C
Mainly sunny. Increasing cloud with a chance of light snow overnight.
Friday

-14°C / -25°C
Periods of light snow, 2-5cm. Clearing overnight.

We’ll see another very cold day today with any remaining clouds clearing out this morning as we march towards a daytime high of just –27°C or so. Temperatures will drop to around –34°C tonight under clear skies. Tomorrow will bring mainly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures as a system pushing eastwards into the Prairies begins bringing some slightly warmer air eastwards. Our high should reach around –24°C while the warmer air becomes much more apparent with our overnight low which will be comparatively balmy around –26°C. Clouds will push in overnight with a slight chance of some light snow before morning.

Snow Likely on Friday

Friday will likely bring light snow to Winnipeg as a low pressure system works through Manitoba. The bulk of the snow will through the Interlake into Central Manitoba, but we’ll likely see the white stuff here in the Red River Valley as well. It looks like most places will see around 2–4cm of snow, however it’s possible that we sneak into the 5–8cm range if things end up just a little heavier than currently forecast. At this point, it looks like Winnipeg would likely see 4–5cm of snow; we’ll be sure to update this if need be as the system gets closer.

A benefit to the cloud and snow will be warmer weather; temperatures should climb to around –14°C on Friday. Skies will clear overnight and we’ll drop down into the mid-minus twenties.

Cold Air Returns

Yet another shot of extremely cold Arctic air is set to move back into Manitoba behind this system. Daytime highs will likely sit in the mid-minus 20’s through the weekend with overnight lows near –30°C, but the cold air should work it’s way into the region early next week, bringing another round of extremely cold temperatures.

2013 In Review

As it’s now 2014, I’ve already begun working on the 2013 statistics for Winnipeg. I hope to have a post ready within a couple weeks with a complete summary of the year past that will put into perspective where last year sat in the big picture!

Alberta Clipper To Bring Snow and Extreme Cold

Brad Leave a comment

Conditions will change dramatically this weekend with no thanks to an Alberta clipper system that will spread snow into Southern Manitoba tonight and usher in extremely cold Arctic air1 to the region on it’s back side. Before that system arrives tonight, however, we’ll get to enjoy a beautiful day with temperatures climbing towards the 0°C mark!

Friday

-2°C / -18°C
Mostly cloudy and warm. Chance of an afternoon flurry. Snow beginning overnight.
Saturday

⇒ -18°C / -32°C
Snow. Windy with blowing snow. Cold.
Sunday

-26°C / -33°C
Mainly sunny. Very cold.

Today will be an exceedingly pleasant day for what has been a markedly cold December. Thanks to a flow of mild Pacific air brought in by westerly winds ahead of the Alberta clipper, we’ll see our temperature climb to around –3 or –2°C today with relatively light winds. Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy through much of the day with the cloud cover being bolstered by the warm temperatures over the snow and a weaker leading impulse tracking through the Interlake. We may see a few breaks in the cloud here or there, particularly through the mid-to-late afternoon period. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. An Alberta clipper is on the way, and it’s a doozy.

Total new snowfall by Saturday evening. Anywhere from 5 to 15cm can be expected along the main frontal zone.
Total new snowfall by Saturday evening. Anywhere from 5 to 15cm can be expected along the main frontal zone.

The system will begin spreading snow into the Red River Valley overnight along a line cutting across the northern Red River Valley. The heaviest band of snow will set up along the main frontal zone aloft which will be aligned roughly from Dauphin to Winnipeg and ESE into the Whiteshell. Underneath the heaviest band of snow around 5-10cm of snow can be expected by Saturday morning with amounts tapering to just 2-3cm near the US border. In addition to the snow, a cold front will begin to slump southwards late overnight which will usher in much cooler air. We’ll see temperatures drop to around –18°C with winds shifting out of the north.

Saturday

Saturday will be…miserable. Our temperature will remain steady near around –18°C as cold air continues to infiltrate into Southern Manitoba. Snow will persist through much of the day — although it will likely lighten to just a few flurries by the late afternoon — with another 2–5cm expected to fall across the Red River Valley which will bring storm-total snowfall amounts to around 5cm in areas on the fringes of the system track and anywhere from around 7–15cm under the heaviest band of snow. The winds will become more of an issue on Saturday as they increase out of north to 30–40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. These winds, aided by the fresh snowfall, will create areas of poor visibility in blowing snow, especially on any west-east running highways.

Please note: Driving conditions will likely be extremely poor on Saturday morning. In addition to the blowing snow, roads will likely be extremely slippery; the warm temperatures on Friday will likely produce moisture on road surfaces which will rapidly freeze overnight. On Saturday morning, roads will likely be icy with fresh snow on top and blowing snow on top of that. If you need to travel, carry a winter survival kit and give yourself lots of time to reach your destination.

The system will move out on Saturday night bringing clearing skies and extremely cold temperatures as an Arctic airmass settles over the region. Our overnight low will bottom out at about –32°C with fairly light winds.

Sunday

Sunday will be a mainly sunny but very cold day. The temperature will only recover to the low minus 20’s. Winds will remain light — little consolation given the temperatures, though. It’ll drop to around –33°C on Sunday night under clear skies.

When Will It End?

The latest NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is calling for below-normal temperatures for Manitoba.
The latest NAEFS 8–14 day temperature outlook is calling for below-normal temperatures for Manitoba.

Unfortunately, all signs point to the cold weather sticking around for at least the next 4–7 days, if not longer. The NAEFS guidance shows below-normal temperatures expected in the 8–14 day range while all the shorter-range models show cold weather through the next week. The GFS is hinting at a system that might push through late next week that would bring slightly milder temperatures, but it would be short-lived and doesn’t look indicative of a pattern change.

It looks like we’ll definitely be closing out December 2013 as one of the Top 5 coldest Decembers on record in Winnipeg with little reprieve on the horizon. So go enjoy the last nice day of 2013 and then get your long johns ready, plug in the car, get a warm drink, fill up the hot water bottle, renew your CAA membership and whatever else you need to do to prepare for another prolonged bout of extreme cold.

  1. I’m doing my best to not use the phrase “bitterly cold” in today’s blog.  ↩