Alberta Clipper Brings Mild Temperatures Quickly Followed By Windy Blast of Arctic Air

An Alberta clipper tracking across the province will bring above-freezing temperatures to Winnipeg today, but strong northwesterlies will usher in colder temperatures this evening that will remain in place for much of the week.

Mild temperatures are on the way today as an Alberta clipper tracking through the Interlake spreads above-freezing temperatures along and south of the Trans-Canada corridor. Temperatures will reach a high near +1°C this afternoon with some rain showers developing across portions of the Red River Valley. Winds will shift from southerly near 20 km/h to westerly at 30 gusting to 50 km/h mid-afternoon, and then shift to northwesterly behind a cold front that sweeps through between 5 and 7PM, ushering in strong winds of 40-50 km/h with gusts up to 70 km/h. By then, any precipitation will switch over and fall as snow. Although snowfall is not expected to be particularly intense, the combination of snow with strong northerly winds will likely produce some areas of reduced visibility in blowing snow.

RPDS 10m Wind Forecast valid 03Z Tuesday November 21, 2017
Strong northwesterly winds of 40-50 km/h will develop over the Red River Valley on Monday evening

With the northwesterly winds, temperatures will rapidly plummet in the evening, going from near +1°C at 5PM to -7 or -8°C by midnight. This rapid drop in temperatures combined with light snow and strong winds will result in a rapid freeze, likely producing slippery roads and poor driving conditions. If you must travel tonight, be sure to give yourself extra time, drive safely, and ensure you have an emergency car kit with you. Any remaining light snow will taper off towards early Tuesday morning as temperatures head to a low near -10°C.

Tuesday will see morning northwesterlies near 30 gusting 50 km/h gradually taper off through the day as a ridge of high pressure moves in. Temperatures will be cool with highs near -7°C under mixed skies. Even cooler air will move in on Tuesday night as the ridge of high pressure moves into the Red River Valley, sending lows into the -15 to -20°C range, depending on exactly how much cloud cover remains in the region.

Winnipeg will see cloudy periods on Wednesday as a weak upper-level disturbance bringing a few light flurries to south-western Manitoba spreads cloud into the Red River Valley. Winds will continue to be light under the ridge of high pressure and temperatures will reach a high near -7°C once again. Expect clear skies and a low near -14°C on Wednesday night.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of the week looks cool for the most part; a low tracking across the central Prairies on Friday will bring mild temperatures once again, but cooler temperatures crash back southwards in the northwesterlies behind the system on Friday night. Cooler temperatures look to stick around through the weekend into next week under variable cloudiness.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -12°C.

Cooler Temperatures Ahead with Chance of Flurries

Slightly below-normal temperatures are on the way for the coming few days alongside variable cloudiness, but above-seasonal warmth may be poised to return next week.

Today will be marked by westerly winds behind a cold front that will usher any remaining flurries out of the region and bring sunshine back to the region. Temperatures will slide through the day to around -7°C by this evening as cooler air slumps into the region as winds gradually diminish. A bit of cloud will move through overnight, bringing a slight chance of some scattered flurries, as temperatures dip to a low near -11°C.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 12Z Friday November 17, 2017
A cold front will sweep through the Red River Valley this morning, ushering in cooler temperatures

Saturday will see partly cloudy skies as a ridge of high pressure builds eastwards across the Prairies. Winds will pick up early in the day out of the northwest at 20 to 30 km/h, backing towards the west in the afternoon before tapering off as the ridge approaches in the evening. Temperatures will be cool with a high near -8°C. Temperatures will be quite cool on Saturday night as the main ridge axis moves into the Red River Valley. There will be a chance of some light lake-effect precipitation, but will be quite dependant of if there’s enough open water remaining to produce snow.

Lows will depend significantly on how much cloud ends up in the region. While skies are expected to be generally clear, but some cloud will begin building into Manitoba from the west as a warm front sets up in eastern Saskatchewan. Should skies cloud up earlier, lows near -13 or -14°C seem reasonable; should it remain clear all night, temperatures could dip as low as -20 or -21°C. At this point, we’re going to go with an answer somewhere in the middle, with cloud pushing in through the second half of the night and a low near -17°C.

Sunday, at this point, looks like a cloudier morning will give way to a sunnier afternoon. A daytime high near -5°C will be slightly warmer than Saturday as the coldest air moves into Ontario. Winds will be light, making for a relatively pleasant November day. Expect a low near -9°C with increasing cloud on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

A low crossing the northern Prairies will bring more cloud and highs back towards 0°C for Monday, followed by a moderate northwesterly wind and the return of cooler weather for Tuesday. After that, things start getting pretty hazy, and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of predictability on which way things will go. The trend appears to be towards a period of above-seasonal temperatures with near-normal precipitation, but we’ll have to wait until a little more consensus appears on how likely that will actually be. That said, it appears the cold snap that defined November’s start has come to an end…for now!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -11°C.

Cooler Conditions Bring Flurries, Windy Thursday

A pair of low pressure systems tracking across the Prairies over the next few days will bring a couple bouts of flurries to Winnipeg, separated by a slightly warmer, but much windier, Thursday.

Winnipeg will see cloudy skies today as breezy northwesterly winds up to around 30 gusting 50 km/h move into the region behind a cold front that passed through overnight. The clouds will likely bring scattered flurries to the Red River Valley, but no accumulating snow is expected.1 Temperatures will be cooler than Monday or Tuesday were, with highs topping out around -5°C today in Winnipeg. The gusty winds will taper off later this afternoon. Tonight, temperatures will dip to a low near -11°C under variable cloudiness as the cloud cover from one system departs as the next area of cloud moves in from the west.

Moderate southeasterly winds will build into the Red River Valley on Thursday

Thursday will be a warmer day in Winnipeg, but strong south-southeasterly winds will make it feel not nearly as pleasant. A low pressure system approaching from the west will increase winds out of the south up to 40 gusting 60 km/h as overcast skies spread across the Red River Valley. While temperatures will reach a high near -2°C, the strong winds and lack of sunshine will make it feel rather cool. Winds will taper off on Thursday evening as the low pressure system moves into Manitoba. It will bring light snow to Winnipeg for Thursday night as a cold front slowly slides through the Red River Valley. At the moment, it appears snow amounts will be low, with up to around 2 cm expected. Temperatures will remain steady near -1°C through the night.

While Winnipeg will just be grazed by snowfall on Thursday night, significant amounts of the white stuff will fall across the central Prairies

Friday will bring cooler temperatures to Winnipeg. Any remaining snow will quickly exit the region in the morning, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds that usher in a cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop through the day to around -6°C with some sunny breaks developing in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip down to a low near -11°C again with variable cloudiness overnight and a slight chance of a few scattered flurries.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures look to be on a bit of a roller coaster through the weekend into the first half of next week, oscillating between seasonal temperatures and below-seasonal temperatures. No significant weather systems are on the horizon in the next 7-10 days.

So in general, near to slightly below-seasonal temperatures with no significant snowfalls. It appears the cold snap that began November has moderated towards seasonal, and a stretch of relatively benign weather lies ahead for Winnipeg.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -10°C.

  1. Snowfall amounts will generally be 0 to 2 cm.

Cold, Windy, and Snowy Friday the Gateway To Seasonal Temperatures

Today will be downright unpleasant out there as a potentially record breaking cold start to the day1 gives way to strong southerly winds as snow moves into the region. After today, though, conditions improve substantially with the record-breaking cold moving out of the area and a gradual return to seasonal weather.

The wind will be out in full force today as strong southerlies strengthen to 40 gusting 60 km/h this morning, which combined with the cold temperatures will produce wind chill values near -30 in the first half of the morning. Temperatures will slowly climb through the day, reaching -9°C this afternoon and then sticking there until rising further overnight to around the -5°C mark by Saturday morning. The winds will begin to taper off in the evening, diminishing to calm by Saturday morning.

RDPS Forecast 10m Winds valid 21Z Friday November 10, 2017
Strong southerly winds will be in place across the Red River Valley this afternoon

Those strong winds are due to the tight pressure gradient between a departing high pressure system that brought the cold temperatures and an approaching low pressure system. In addition to the winds, this low will spread light snow through western Manitoba this morning then into the Red River Valley for the afternoon. Most of the snow will be done by evening, but flurries will likely persist overnight.

While snowfall amounts won’t be too high — generally around 3 to 5 cm is expected — as the snow combines with the strong winds, travel may be impacted by scattered pockets of blowing snow. Certainly not a blizzard by any stretch of the imagination, but be prepared to take some sections of highways slowly as reduced visibility may be an issue from time to time.

RDPS Forecast 24hr. Snowfall valid 15Z Saturday November 11, 2017
General snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 cm are expected by Saturday morning across southern Manitoba

The weekend looks better; any remaining flurries should taper off Saturday morning as a very broad ridge of high pressure builds into the Prairies, although a few scattered flurries will be possible through the remainder of the day. Saturday should see closer-to-seasonal temperatures with highs near -2 or -3°C and northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 km/h under mostly cloudy skies, although some afternoon sunny breaks are possible.

Temperatures cool off a bit Saturday night into Sunday as the ridge of high pressure moves through Manitoba. Winnipeg should see a low near -10°C on Saturday night with variable cloudiness and light winds. Sunday will bring mixed skies and slightly cooler temperatures once again with highs near -6°C. Sunday night’s low is a bit of a tricky proposition as temperatures will likely dive in the evening, but then clouds and increasing winds will move in and bring the temperature back up to -6 or -5°C by Monday morning. At this point, it seems like the low will dip to around -11°C before climbing back up, but if it stays clear for a bit longer it could be a few degrees lower, or if it remains cloudier temperatures may not even dip much from the daytime high.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring seasonal temperatures back to the region with highs of 0 to +2°C expected on both Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system moving through on Tuesday may bring some precipitation to the region, then temperatures cool down on Wednesday before returning to the freezing mark on Thursday as another low pressure system moves through bringing a chance of snow to the Red River Valley. So a bit of a mixed bag, but certainly warmer than it has been!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 0°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.

  1. This post is being written on Thursday evening; while we’re pretty proud of our forecasts, even we can’t claim to be able to forecast down to tenths of degrees!