Warmer Weather Returns Quickly to Winnipeg

It’s a cold start to the day in Winnipeg, but the first cold night marks the end of this cold snap; warmer weather is surging back across the Prairies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday February 17, 2024
Warmer weather will spread across southern Manitoba on Saturday.

The cold weather this morning will break quickly as westerly winds move into the region with a warm front pushing through. Temperatures will warm from the mid-minus 20s this morning to an afternoon high near -10 °C. Westerly winds will pick up through the day to around 30 km/h in Winnipeg. The sun will make an appearance this morning, but skies will cloud over through the day.

The winds will continue through the night with temperatures near -10 °C. There will be a chance of flurries overnight.

Saturday will bring cloudy skies to Winnipeg with a few sunny breaks possible in the afternoon. Behind the warm front, daytime highs will climb into the -5 to 0 °C range with breezy westerly winds up to 40 km/h.   Temperatures will then dip to a low near -10 °C under partly cloudy skies on Saturday night.

Light northerly winds will continue on Sunday with a cooler high than Saturday, topping out near -5 °C in the afternoon. Winnipeg should see plenty of sunshine, though, which will be a nice change from the recent warmth. It will be another cool night on Sunday night as a cold front slumps through southern Manitoba. Overnight lows will likely dip into the -20 to -15 °C range with mainly clear skies.

Long Range Outlook

An upper ridge will continue to build across the Prairies next week, keeping temperatures near to slightly above-normal through the first half of the week. A cold front will begin to slump southwards mid-week, bringing a chance of snow to the region followed by cooler temperatures to end the week.

The pattern after that is uncertain, but it looks like the region could be in for near-seasonal temperatures with more frequent chances for snow heading through the weekend and into next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -8 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -18 °C.

Light Snow Leads to Brief Cold Snap

A disturbance passing through southern Manitoba later today will bring light snow followed by moderate northwest winds. Colder air will slump into the region behind it for the end of the work week, but temperatures will rebound quickly through the weekend.

RDPS 24hr. Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 12Z Wednesday February 14, 2024
A low pressure system will leave a swath of fresh snow across southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

Winnipeg will sit under mainly cloudy skies today with southerly winds picking up to around 30 km/h ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the west. Temperatures will be mild with highs near -4 °C this afternoon. Light snow will move across southwest Manitoba today and reach Winnipeg by mid- to late-afternoon.

The snow will continue eastwards through the evening, tapering off to flurries overnight with around 2–3 cm of fresh snow left behind. Temperatures will dip to lows in the -10 to -5 °C range across the Red River Valley tonight.

It will be pleasant on Wednesday with highs again near -5 °C and westerly winds in the 20 to 30 km/h range. With that warmth will come more cloudy skies, though. A cold front will sweep through the region later Wednesday, bringing breezy northwest winds and cooling temperatures. Skies will likely clear out on Wednesday night, letting temperatures drop to a low in the mid-minus teens.

Thursday will finally bring sunshine to the region with northwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h and a high in the -15 to -10 °C range. Unfortunately, those winds will make it feel like it’s in the -20s. An Arctic high will continue to slump southwards through the Prairies through Thursday night; as it drops south, the winds will ease in southern Manitoba and temperatures will head to a low likely near -25 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Southern Manitoba will be under the grip of the Arctic high on Friday. The region will see plenty of sunshine with highs that struggle to climb into the -20 to -15 °C range.

The axis of coldest air will then shift off to the east for the weekend. Temperatures will return to near-seasonal values with breezy westerly winds on Saturday. The near-seasonal temperatures should persist into next week, then likely be followed with another surge of Pacific air that will send temperatures back towards freezing.

Fortunately, it looks like the region should see plenty of sun this weekend which will be a welcome change from the copious amounts of cloud cover the region has seen over the last while!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.

Snow Tapers off With a Cooler Weekend Ahead

Lingering flurries will taper off across southern Manitoba today as the Colorado Low shifts off to the east. Behind it, northerly winds will diminish as cooler temperatures settle into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Sunday February 11, 2024
Although it won’t be particularly cold for early February, the weekend will bring cooler temperatures than the region has seen recently.

It will be the most wintery day seen in weeks across southern Manitoba today as snow tapers off and the region is left with northerly winds of 30 to 40 km/h. There may be blowing snow in western Manitoba, but the recent warmth and limited new snow in the Red River Valley should prevent it from being much of an issue here. Notable will be how much cooler it will be in Winnipeg than recently. Despite that, temperatures will stay above normal values across the region. Winnipeg’s daytime high should reach around -8 °C today and mainly cloudy skies will keep things mild tonight with a lows dipping into the -15 to -10 °C range.

Saturday will bring mostly cloudy skies to the region as an upper trough swings into Manitoba. Highs will bounce back to around -5 °C with light northwest winds. Temperatures will dip back to around -10 °C on Saturday night under cloudy skies. There will be a chance of light snow overnight as the upper trough moves through the region.

Winnipeg might see sunshine on Sunday as light southwest winds develop across the region. Daytime highs should reach back into the -5 to 0 °C range as warming moves eastwards across the Prairies with a building upper ridge. Temperatures will dip back down into the -10 to -5 °C range on Sunday night with variable cloudiness.

Long Range Outlook

The first half of next week will bring variable cloudiness to southern Manitoba with northerly winds and daytime highs in the -5 to 0 °C range. A cold front will slump into the region in the second half of the week, bringing near-seasonal temperatures as highs slump towards -10 °C along with a chance of flurries.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -20 °C.

Colorado Low Poised to Bring Fresh Snow to Manitoba as Warm Weather Continues

Cloudy skies, mist/fog, drizzle, and mild temperatures will continue for a couple more days in the Winnipeg area. The weather will finally change across southern Manitoba on Wednesday night as a Colorado Low begins to spread waves of precipitation into the province.

ECMWF Precipitation Type Forecast valid 18Z Thursday February 8, 2024.ECMWF Total Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 00Z Saturday February 10, 2024.
Waves of mixed precipitation will move into southern Manitoba on Thursday. This Colorado Low will bring accumulating snow to most of southern Manitoba.

The next couple days in Winnipeg will bring more of what the city has seen lately: plenty of cloud, mist and fog patches, and occasional drizzle. A ridge of high pressure moving across the Red River Valley will keep things stagnant with light northerly winds. The trend of temperatures well above normal will continue with highs a couple degrees above freezing and lows right near the freezing point.

Then, the most notable weather system in weeks will begin to impact the region on Wednesday night. As I mentioned in Thursday’s post, long-range models were developing a Colorado Low-like system and pushing it quickly eastwards. I mentioned that I wouldn’t be surprised to see this system pull further west as it approached and…that’s what has happened with the forecast models over the past few days.

A Colorado Low will eject northeastwards on Wednesday, reaching South Dakota by Thursday morning and then into Minnesota by Thursday evening. As it draws closer to Manitoba, it will begin to spread waves of precipitation into the province. The first couple waves, arriving Wednesday night and Thursday morning could bring a wintery mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain to the Red River Valley. As those move off to the northwest, the region will see a break with cloudy skies and a chance of drizzle.

By later Thursday, northerly winds will strengthen across the region and begin to draw cooler air into the region. More snow will be possible Thursday evening through much of Friday before it finally tapers off.

There is a wide range of snowfall accumulations possible with this system, and at this point there is significant uncertainty as to where the axis of heaviest snow will set up in the province. In general, many areas of the province will receive 5 to 10 cm of fresh snow, with 10 to 20 cm possible in the swath of highest accumulation. Amounts could creep even higher on the northern slopes of the Turtle and Riding Mountains where northerly winds enhance the snowfall along the terrain.

With the notable uncertainty that remains with how this system will set up over the province, I recommend you check the updated forecasts on ECCC’s weather website over the coming days.

Daytime highs in Winnipeg will fall into the -5 to 0 °C range by the end of the week with overnight lows in the -20 to -10 °C range depending on how much clearing is able to move into the region.

Long Range Outlook

The weekend will bring cooler — but still above normal — temperatures to the region. Daytime highs will dip to around -5 °C with lows dependent on how cloudy the nights stay. With clearing, lows could drop into the -20 to -15 °C range, but if it stays cloudier then lows could hover near -10 °C.

Hopefully the region will see a bit of sun this weekend, but there’s a chance things do stay on the cloudier side.

Next week will continue the trend with daytime highs near -5 °C and overnight lows in the -10 to -20 °C range as light westerly winds develop over the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.