Tag: Windy

Winter Returns to Winnipeg

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A low pressure system moving through the province will bring snow, falling temperatures, and strong winds to the Winnipeg area later today.

ECMWF 24hr. Snowfall Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Saturday December 9, 2023
While as much as 10 to 15 cm of snow is possible later today in the Red River Valley, melting during the early parts of the event should reduce the snow accumulation into the 5 to 10 cm range for most places.

Today will be another mild day as Winnipeg finds itself in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. Skies will be cloudy today with a chance of a rain shower or drizzle mas temperatures climb above freezing midday. Later this afternoon, snow will begin to push across the Red River Valley as the low tracks to the east. Temperatures will dip just below freezing and the snow will likely start to pile up by late in the afternoon.

The evening will bring more snow and increasing northerly winds. Northerly winds will reach 30 gusting 50 by this afternoon, then strengthen to 50 gusting 70 km/h in the evening. Coupled with the snow and falling temperatures, it will make for poor travel conditions on area roads. Snow will pile up, surfaces will begin to freeze, and areas of blowing snow will reduce visibilities further.

The snow will taper off overnight, leaving behind about 5 to 10 cm accumulation. Temperatures will dip to a low in the -5 to -10 °C range.

The clouds will begin to break up on Saturday, bringing a bit of sun back to the region. The northerly wind will ease through the day, from 40 gusting 60 km/h in the morning to calm by evening. Although it will be a cooler day, a high near -6 °C will still be warmer than the seasonal average.

Temperatures will dip down into the -10 to -15 °C range on Saturday night with partly cloudy skies.

Sunday will bring mixed skies to the region again with a seasonal daytime high around -8 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into next week, another upper ridge will build over the west coast and spread eastwards, bringing another wave of Pacific air into the Prairies. This will warm temperatures up, but exactly how much will depend significantly on the snowpack. At this point in the year, with a very shallow sun angle, a solid snowpack could more or less isolate the surface from the warmer air above.

We’ll have to wait and see…but the push of milder air does look like it will likely last well into the second half of the week. It’s hard to believe that temperatures will be able to climb too much if the entire Red River Valley ends up filled with snow in December, but stranger things have happened.

Either way, just a couple weeks out from the shortest day of the year and there are still no -30s in the Winnipeg forecast.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -18 °C.

Warm Weather Surges Back Into Southern Manitoba

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After just a couple cool days, Pacific warmth will surge across southern Manitoba today and bring milder weather back to the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Tuesday November 28, 2023
A a warm front will push eastwards across southern Manitoba on Tuesday morning.

Residents of the Red RIver Valley will wake to breezy southerly winds this morning as a warm front quickly pushes towards the region. Wind chill values in the morning will reach into the mid-minus 20s, but that cold will be short-lived. There will be a chance of some light snow in the cloud cover ahead of the front, but little more than a dusting is expected given the dryness of the air in the southerly return flow.

The front will pass through the region midday; behind it winds will shift westerly and temperatures will rise dramatically; afternoon highs across the Red River Valley will climb to around 0 °C with many areas climbing a degree or two above freezing along and west of the Red River. 

As the warm air floods east, another change is happening in the Arctic that will also have an impact on the weather in southern Manitoba. Over the next few days, a low pressure system over Québec will lift northwards and then retrograde westwards into Foxe Basin; as it does, the broader vortex its rotating around will begin to drop southwards. This will allow a subsequent Atlantic low to pull westwards through Baffin Island and into Canada’s northern areas as well. This will flood the Arctic with milder Atlantic air and erode the store of cold air in the region.

This is notable because as the weather pattern erodes over Manitoba through the weekend, the northerly winds will be tapping into cooling Atlantic air rather than bitterly cold Arctic air. This will help keep warmer air around as a northerly component to the flow won’t suddenly usher temperatures of -20 °C southwards.

The end result will be a prolonged period of seasonably mild temperatures for Winnipeg and other areas in southern Manitoba. Daytime highs will hover in the -5 to 0 °C range, or even a bit warmer, through much of the week while overnight hover in the -5 to -10 °C range. Depending on exact daytime highs, the region could also see an erosion of the limited snow cover put down by Saturday night’s brief snowfall.

Long Range Outlook

Near-seasonal or seasonably mild temeperatures and dry weather looks to continue well into next week with little change expected through the first half. If anything, long-range forecast show that after a brief cool-down to near-seasonal temperatures at the end of this week, daytime highs might pop back up to around freezing to start next week.

So far, a notably mild November that will certainly help winter feel not quite so long this year!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -14 °C.

Another Brief Shot of Winter Ahead for Winnipeg

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Saturday will bring another day of seasonably mild weather in Winnipeg, but a cold front sweeping through the province will usher in colder weather for Sunday.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Monday November 27, 2023
A colder air mass will settle over the eastern Prairies by Sunday night.

Temperatures will climb near the freezing mark again today in Winnipeg as warmer air floods into the southern Prairies. The region will see mixed skies today and winds will persist out of the southwest in the 20 to 30 km/h range.

There will be a notable change in the weather this evening. A low pressure system moving through central Manitoba will sweep a cold front across the province overnight. The front will bring a band of snow that pushes from Parkland Manitoba this early into the Red River Valley before midnight, then to the Ontario border by Sunday morning. Behind the front, moderate northwest winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h will usher a colder air mass into the region. A few flurries may linger across the region overnight behind the front. Temperatures will fall to a low in the -5 to -10 °C range.

On Sunday, the northwest winds will continue across the region as temperatures continue to fall through the day. Skies will clear by the afternoon with temperatures dropping into the -10 to -15 °C range. With clear skies and winds diminishing, temperatures will drop further into the -15 to -20 °C range on Sunday night.

The cool temperatures will continue on Monday with sunny skies and a high in the -5 to -10 °C range. On Monday evening, a warm front will push eastwards across Manitoba, bringing some more snow as a milder Pacific air mass pushes back into the province.

Long Range Outlook

We could see some snow in the Red River Valley early Tuesday, but much of the snow should fall to the north and east. Temperatures will rebound into the -5 to 0 °C range for Tuesday afternoon.

The region should be another day with above-seasonal temperatures on Wednesday, then a return to seasonal values for the rest of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -14 °C.

Beautiful September Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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With temperatures into the 20s in the coming days, Winnipeg will see some beautiful late-September conditions. But a change late in the week will usher in a period of unsettled conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday September 26, 2023
Southern Manitoba will see mild temperatures this afternoon as a weak ride of high pressure keeps winds light.

There will be no complaints about the next couple days in Winnipeg as an upper ridge brings sunshine and warmer temperatures back to the region. Highs will climb into the mid-20s today in Winnipeg with light winds as a weak surface ridge lingers over the region. Skies will be sunny through the day and into the night. Temperatures will dip down to around 10 °C tonight.

On Wednesday, temperatures will climb back into the low 20s as a few clouds build into the region along with breezy southerly winds. By mid-afternoon, most of the Red River Valley should see southerlies up into the 30 to 40 km/h range. Those winds will continue overnight in the 20 to 30 km/h range, keeping lows mild in the mid-teens. Along with the wind, skies will likely cloud over as a trough of low pressure moves towards the region.

On Thursday, winds will strengthen to 40 gusting 60 km/h by midday in the Red River Valley. These winds will be strongest just ahead of the warm-sector trough crossing through the Red River Valley. As the day progresses, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastwards out of the United States; this could bring showers or non-severe thunderstorms to parts of southwestern Manitoba or the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will again climb to around the 20 °C mark.

A weak cold front will push through the region on Thursday night, clearing skies out and allowing the lows to dip back into the single digits.

Long Range Outlook

A series of disturbances will push over southern Manitoba heading towards the weekend thanks to a deepening long-wave trough on the west coast that will continuously eject shortwaves northeastwards. This will likely mean seasonably mild temperatures, mixed to cloudy skies, and chances for areas of showers almost each day.

Current forecasts hold this pattern until early next week, after which cooler air will push back into the region with a return to near-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +4 °C.