A Bit of A Mixed Bag For The Long Weekend

Fairly nice weather is ahead for the long weekend with plenty of sunshine and hot temperatures. The only chance for rain will come on Saturday night as a low pressure system passes through the Interlake.

GFS Precipitation for Saturday Night

12 hour rainfall accumulations from the GFS for Saturday night, depicting the showers expected to develop over southern Manitoba.

Temperatures will climb to 30°C today across the Red River Valley as southerly winds build over the region and advect in slightly warmer air. We’ll see an overnight low of around 15°C with clear skies tonight. Tomorrow will likely be a few degrees cooler than today as cloud cover works it’s way into the area in the afternoon. We’ll see slightly stronger winds closer to 30km/h, develop by the afternoon as a low pressure system begins to push across Saskatchewan.

A strong low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to develop on Saturday evening. Current consensus is that a 40kt LLJ will develop over central North Dakota and slowly push eastwards overnight. An area of showers and thundershowers look to develop on the nose of the LLJ, mainly through areas between the International Border northwards towards Riding Mountain Provincial Park eastwards across the Interlake. There is one great uncertainty with this system, though: Isaac. The storm previously known as Hurricane Isaac will be pushing northwards towards Iowa before shifting it’s track eastwards on Sunday. The moisture required for us to be able to see precipitation on Saturday night sits along a narrow boundary left behind across the Northern US. As it stands now, the LLJ that forms tomorrow evening is supposed to tap into that pool of moisture and transport it northwards into the RRV. Should the track of Isaac change significantly between now and then, the location of the moisture pool may change and move to an area that the LLJ wouldn’t be able to tap into. Should that happen, it’s unlikely we’d see much more than scattered showers over the RRV with little accumulation.

Things will clear out early Sunday morning and we’ll have some sunshine before a few clouds bubble up in the afternoon. We’ll have a cooler day with a high of 25°C.

Holiday Monday looks like a beautiful day with plenty of sunshine and a high once again near 25°C and breezy westerly winds gusting to 40-50km/h.

Brad

Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as @WeatherInThePeg on Twitter.