Warm Weather Surges Back Into Southern Manitoba

After just a couple cool days, Pacific warmth will surge across southern Manitoba today and bring milder weather back to the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Tuesday November 28, 2023
A a warm front will push eastwards across southern Manitoba on Tuesday morning.

Residents of the Red RIver Valley will wake to breezy southerly winds this morning as a warm front quickly pushes towards the region. Wind chill values in the morning will reach into the mid-minus 20s, but that cold will be short-lived. There will be a chance of some light snow in the cloud cover ahead of the front, but little more than a dusting is expected given the dryness of the air in the southerly return flow.

The front will pass through the region midday; behind it winds will shift westerly and temperatures will rise dramatically; afternoon highs across the Red River Valley will climb to around 0 °C with many areas climbing a degree or two above freezing along and west of the Red River. 

As the warm air floods east, another change is happening in the Arctic that will also have an impact on the weather in southern Manitoba. Over the next few days, a low pressure system over Québec will lift northwards and then retrograde westwards into Foxe Basin; as it does, the broader vortex its rotating around will begin to drop southwards. This will allow a subsequent Atlantic low to pull westwards through Baffin Island and into Canada’s northern areas as well. This will flood the Arctic with milder Atlantic air and erode the store of cold air in the region.

This is notable because as the weather pattern erodes over Manitoba through the weekend, the northerly winds will be tapping into cooling Atlantic air rather than bitterly cold Arctic air. This will help keep warmer air around as a northerly component to the flow won’t suddenly usher temperatures of -20 °C southwards.

The end result will be a prolonged period of seasonably mild temperatures for Winnipeg and other areas in southern Manitoba. Daytime highs will hover in the -5 to 0 °C range, or even a bit warmer, through much of the week while overnight hover in the -5 to -10 °C range. Depending on exact daytime highs, the region could also see an erosion of the limited snow cover put down by Saturday night’s brief snowfall.

Long Range Outlook

Near-seasonal or seasonably mild temeperatures and dry weather looks to continue well into next week with little change expected through the first half. If anything, long-range forecast show that after a brief cool-down to near-seasonal temperatures at the end of this week, daytime highs might pop back up to around freezing to start next week.

So far, a notably mild November that will certainly help winter feel not quite so long this year!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -14 °C.


Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

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