Winter Storm Update: Big Snow Possible Monday

A potent winter storm is brewing south of the border and will move northwards into Saskatchewan and Manitoba today and tonight. Weather models have been on a  bit of a wild ride over the past 48 hours, moving the heaviest snow from the Red River Valley west into eastern Saskatchewan and now back eastwards into Manitoba.

It cannot be understated: this system is complicated. This storm will be the combination of 3 different events: the first batch of snow will impact central Saskatchewan eastwards to western Manitoba, the second will impact eastern Saskatchewan eastwards to the Red River Valley, and the third will impact western Manitoba eastwards to the Ontario border.

RDPS Accumulated Snow Forecast valid 06Z Tuesday March 7, 2018
Forecast total snowfall amounts between Sunday morning and Tuesday evening in centimetres.

With the eastwards shift of the overnight model runs, the Red River Valley may about to receive a rather significant dump of snow on Monday. Several models suggest event-total snowfall amounts in the 20 to 30 cm range, while closer to the Saskatchewan border may see 30 to 40 cm. Granted, it’s just one model run, but this shift has been reflected across several different weather models.

In general, the current Environment and Climate Change Canada forecast has a good handle on the expected progression of events, the main potential difference being that snowfall amounts on Monday may be substantially more if the late-night model runs turn out correct. EC³ has numerous warnings – both heavy snowfall and winter storm – covering the various severities of this system. Currently Winnipeg is under a heavy snowfall warning, but if there is growing consensus on higher amounts, that may end up switched to a winter storm warning.

After days of anticipation, the forecast will gain significant clarity today. This storm is finally developing, and soon it will contain actual weather features that can be tracked and compared to model output, greatly enhancing the ability to forecast it.

We’ll be continuing to monitor the development of this system and have more details in our next regular forecast post. In the meantime, follow us on Facebook or Twitter to receive micro-updates as this system develops tonight!

Major Winter Storm Brewing, Heavy Snow On The Way

Winnipeg is on track to see an unsettled weekend culminate in a major winter storm as a Colorado Low spreads heavy snow into Manitoba on Sunday night. But the big question remains: how much?

Those hoping that we could escape winter without a major storm this year, brace yourself. It all kicks off today with cloud building through southern Manitoba as a complex storm system begins organizing over the western United States. Temperatures in Winnipeg will be mild with a high near -2°C. Winds will remain light out of the northeast. As some warmer air lifts northwards through the Dakotas towards Manitoba in the evening, it will begin bringing the chance of snow to the region. Temperatures should remain steady near -3°C on Friday night.

The uncertainty begins to ramp up on Saturday with models providing a variety of possible solutions. The general agreement as of writing is that snow will spread across southern Manitoba through the day on Saturday, with more organized snowfall developing on Saturday night. Amounts with this first batch of snow will be limited, with general amounts of 2 to 4 cm forecast on Saturday night. Temperatures will be quite mild on Saturday with a high near +1°C, which means that if precipitation moves into the Red River Valley through the day, some if it may fall as rain. Winds will be out of the east-northeast at 20 to 30 km/h.

NAM forecast simulated reflectivity with precipitation type valid 00Z Sunday March 4, 2018
Snow will be possible across much of southern Manitoba on Saturday as a line of snow lifts northwards.

Mild temperatures will continue Sunday with highs once again near 0°C. There will be a slight chance of flurries or drizzle through the day as a Colorado Low begins lifting northwards. Winds will continue out of the north near 30 km/h. The main event is forecast to begin on Sunday evening as heavy snow moves into the province from the south. Unfortunately, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty associated with this, including:

  • Where will the heaviest bands of snow set up?
  • How quickly will this system move?
  • Exactly how intense will the snowfall be?

For Sunday night, it looks like the main threat areas are the Red River Valley west towards the Saskatchewan border. There’s a lot of uncertainty with how fast the snow will push northwards, but reaching the Trans-Canada corridor by Monday morning looks likely. The snow will be heavy with the potential for 10 to 20 cm overnight. Winnipeg may escape much of this, instead receiving most of the heavy snow on Monday.

GFS 24 hour snowfall accumulation (at 10:1 SLR) valid 06Z Tuesday March 6, 2018
One potential snowfall outcome has up to 30 cm of snow in the Red River Valley from Sunday night through Monday. But it’s just 🎯 at this point…

The heavy snow will continue through Monday and then is forecast to taper off Tuesday evening. Storm-total snowfall from Saturday through Monday will likely fall into the 15 to 25 cm range, but there is a small chance of seeing amounts as high as 30 to 40 cm if a worst-case scenario occurs. Either way, it will easily claim the title as worst winter storm so far this year.

Travel Impacts

There will be 3 primary travel impacts from the worst of this storm:

  1. Deteriorating road conditions as snow accumulates.
  2. Reduced visibility in snow and blowing snow.
  3. Snow drifts developing on roadways.

These three elements will be out in full force Sunday night into Monday, and will likely make travel extremely difficult if not impossible. If you currently have travel plans for Sunday night or Monday, it would be a good idea to make a contingency plan and prepare for delays.

Weekend Update

It cannot be understated that the predictability associated with this system is low at this point. We’ll be posting an update or two through the next couple days leading up to the event with updated forecast information, so stay tuned.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.

Early Taste of Spring Continues, Winter Storm Looms on Horizon

Winnipeg will see March will kick off the same way February ends: with high temperatures near 0°C bringing an early taste of spring to the region.

The mild weather Winnipeg has seen over the past couple days isn’t going anywhere. A mild Pacific flow will continue through the rest of the work week, bringing near-freezing highs to the region. Tonight and Thursday night will both see overnight lows near -10°C.

GDPS 2m Temperature Anomaly valid 00Z Friday March 2, 2018
Much of Manitoba will see above-normal temperatures on Thursday, shown here by the areas shaded red

Winnipeg will see plenty of sun as well. A few clouds will move through the Red River Valley today, but then mainly sunny skies will be in place through Thursday and much of Friday. Some cloud will begin moving into the region late Friday ahead of a low pressure complex organizing in the United States. The cloud cover will keep Friday night’s low warmer, only dipping down to around -3°C.

Long Range Outlook – Winter Storm Brewing

The weather will turn more unsettled for the weekend as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. Mild temperatures will continue in Winnipeg, but cloudy skies will persist through the weekend into the first half of next week.

There will be a couple of chances for snow – or even a rain shower – through the weekend. Come Sunday night through Monday, what may end up as the biggest storm thus far in the 2017/18 winter season moves through. While it’s too early to put much trust in any of the forecasts, some guidance suggests Winnipeg and the Red River Valley may see over 25 cm of snow with this storm system.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Monday March 5, 2018
A complex, slow-moving low pressure system may bring Winnipeg the biggest winter storm of the 2017/18 season on Sunday night into Monday.

For now, just keep it in mind that there is the chance for a major snow storm to start next week. If you have travel plans involving driving on Monday, consider contingency plans just in case.

Until then, enjoy the beautiful sunshine and mild temperatures!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.

Mild Temperatures Bring Late-February Melt

Get the windshield wiper fluid topped up, Winnipeg! A week of mild temperatures is on the way, bringing beautiful weather and sloppy roads.

Winnipeg is finally free from the grip of Arctic air! A persistent westerly flow aloft is forecast to bring above-seasonal temperatures to the city for the remainder of the week. A warm front will move through this morning, sending highs to near +1°C under partly cloudy skies. Winds will start the day out of the south at 15 to 20 km/h, then shift to the southwest and diminish this afternoon. In the evening, a weak cold front will push across the Red River Valley, clearing out skies and sending lows to near -10°C.

Tuesday will bring slightly cooler weather as a ridge of high pressure moves across the region. Winnipeg will still see above-seasonal temperatures, though, as the daytime high climbs to near -2°C. Skies should be mainly sunny and winds will be light. A few clouds will work into the region overnight as lows dip to near -10°C again.

Winnipeg is forecast to see highs above 0°C on Monday as mild air moves thorugh the Red River Valley.
Winnipeg is forecast to see highs above 0°C on Monday as mild air moves thorugh the Red River Valley.

Wednesday will bring more cloud to Winnipeg as it spreads eastwards ahead of the next low pressure system crossing the Prairies. Under mixed skies, temperatures will climb to a high near -2°C with light southerly winds. Temperatures will dip back down to a low near -10°C yet again on Wednesday night with clearing skies.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of the work week forecast looks pleasant. Another surge of mild air will send temperatures back near 0°C for Thursday and Friday with plenty of sunshine. Heading into the weekend, temperatures continue to look mild, but indications are that skies will be cloudy as a fairly significant low moves across the Prairies. The general pattern looks to be a bit more unsettled through the weekend into the first half of next week, so Winnipeg may end up seeing a batch of organized, accumulating snow to kick off next week.

But until then, enjoy the mild conditions!

Winnipeg’s current seasonal daytime high is -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -16°C.