Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Massive Warm-Up On The Way

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Today will mark a bitterly cold end to the week, but significantly warmer weather is on the way as the jet stream pushes northwards and allows mild Pacific air to spill across the Prairies.

Unfortunately, before we get to the warmer weather, we have to make it through today which will be, generally speaking, miserable.

We’re off to a cold start with an extreme cold warning as temperatures sit below -30°C with wind chill values dipping below -40. Warmer weather will attempt to push into the region today, but cold air will be pumped northwards up the Red River Valley out of the Arctic high that is now to our southeast. This combination will make today particularly uncomfortable as our freezing, but relatively calm, morning turns into a cold and uncomfortably windy afternoon.

Temperatures will climb to a high near -19°C today but winds strengthen midday out of the south to 30-40 km/h, maintaining wind chill values near -30. These strong southerly winds will likely produce areas of poor visibility in blowing snow throughout the rural regions of the Red River Valley.

Winds will taper off tonight as the warm front finally pushes through the region, allowing warmer air to finally push into the Red River Valley.

The 4km NAM picks up on the stronger southerly winds of 30-40 *km/h* expected through the Red River Valley today.

Temperatures will dip just a few degrees to -22°C tonight.

Saturday will be much nicer with winds of 10-20 km/h out of the south-southwest, just a few clouds and a high near -12°C. We’ll see a few clouds overnight as temperatures drop to -15°C or so.

Sunday will be another nice day with mixed skies, winds of 15-25 km/h, and a high near -7°C. Skies will be clear on Sunday night with a low near -13°C.

Long Range

The good news is that even warmer air is on the way next week and it doesn’t look like it’s going to go anywhere any time soon.

There is fairly good agreement across multiple models and agencies that the upcoming pattern change will be prolonged and produce generally above-normal temperatures for the next 2-3 weeks. At the moment, next week looks warm with daytime highs climbing to the freezing mark with little precipitation expected.

Update: Mackenzie Low Brings Blizzard to Southern Manitoba

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A potent Mackenzie Low dropped southeastwards through Saskatchewan yesterday riding along with a frontal wave that increased temperatures here in Winnipeg overnight. Behind this system is—for one of the first times this year—a potent Arctic air mass ready to surge southwards.

Today’s major weather features.

As a result, very strong winds developed in the rear of the cold front, supported through a deep layer as evident by a 120 km/h+ jet just off the surface that was visible on Doppler RADAR earlier this morning. Surface winds reached as high as 80-90 km/h behind the cold front which, combined with plenty of loose snow from our extra fluffy snowfall event the other day and some light falling snow, produced white-out conditions across many parts of Southern Manitoba.

The strong winds will move off to the east-southeast with the low pressure system through the morning and visibilities will improve. However, that bitterly cold Arctic air mass will move in through the day, sending temperatures south to around -26 or -27°C by the end of the afternoon here in Winnipeg. Temperatures will continue to drop to a low near -33°C on Friday morning with wind chill values of -42 to -45.

The cold weather will be short-lived as a mild Pacific air mass will begin building into the region this weekend.

Bitter Cold Seizes Winnipeg

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Some of the coldest temperatures of the year are on tap for Winnipeg as a final blast of Arctic air spills across Southern Manitoba. The bitter cold will be short-lived, however, as a major pattern change this weekend will begin spreading significantly milder air across the Prairies.

Today will be a cold one with a ridge of high pressure clearing skies out early this morning and temperatures reaching a high temperature of just -22°C. Winds will start the day off out of the west at around 20 km/h and shift to the south in the afternoon.

A weak low pressure system will round the base of the Polar Vortex tonight, swinging across southern Manitoba and bringing cloudy skies and some light flurry activity. The cloud cover will help prevent temperatures from dropping too low; early tonight temperatures will drop to around -26 or -27°C, but then begin to warm as the cloud moves in. By Thursday morning, the temperature will have climbed back to around the -20°C mark. No significant snow accumulations are expected.

A wide area of flurries are expected on Wednesday night with the passage of a weak low pressure system.

The overnight warming trend is all a cruel ruse, however, as winds shift northwesterly early Thursday and start ushering in the really cold air. Winds will strengthen to 30-40 km/h with gusts up to 50 km/h or so while temperatures drop to around -23°C. They’ll remain steady there as skies clear and winds gradually diminish through the afternoon.

A potent Arctic high pressure system will move in on Thursday night, bringing light winds and extremely cold temperatures. Extreme cold warnings are highly likely across all of Southern Manitoba on Thursday night as temperatures plummet to overnight lows in the -30 to -34°C range. At these temperatures, winds of just 5-12 km/h will produce wind chill values of -401 and winds of that speed are produced simply by the movement of the air as it cools. By late overnight into Friday morning wind chill values will be in the -40 to -45 range.

Friday will be a very tricky day with respect to temperatures. Warmer air will begin working into the region from the west as a low pressure system building into the northern Prairies begins shunting the cold air to the southeast. However, winds will increase out of the south to southeast, feeding cold air out of the Arctic ridge back up the Red River Valley. In a best-case scenario, temperatures would likely climb to a high near -17°C, but if the cold air clings on, temperatures will languish with highs near -21°C.

That said, it won’t feel great outside as winds out of the south strengthen to 30-40 km/h. Skies will be mainly clear through the day. Winds will taper off in the evening and temperatures will remain steady through the night with just a few clouds.

Long Range

The story changes next week: nothing but above-normal temperatures flooding the Prairies.

Above-normal temperatures (red) will spread eastwards across the Prairies by Monday.

The jet stream will shift northwards for next week, drawing mild Pacific air across the Rockies and the Prairies. An extended period of mild temperatures are expected with daytime highs climbing from around -6°C on Sunday to the 0°C mark by mid-week. The mild weather will likely continue through next weekend. Hooray!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.

  1. This wind chill value is Environment Canada’s criteria for issuing an extreme cold warning. ↩

Get The Shovels Back Out

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Snow. More of it.

Yet more snow is on the way for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley as another complex of low pressure systems swings through the region. While amounts won’t be too excessive, it will have a notable impact as Winnipeg begins to struggle with the fact that nearly an entire season’s worth of snow fell in about 4 weeks and places to put new snow are getting low while tempers flare.

Snow begin today and arrive in two main waves. The first will start midday and taper off to flurries by evening, while the second begins late overnight and tapers off early Tuesday morning. The first batch of snow will be of moderate strength, generally dropping around 4-8 cm of snow. The second batch had looked about equal in strength, but models have trended towards a more northerly track and being slightly weaker, which would more likely mean just some flurries for the Red River Valley on Tuesday morning. In a worst case scenario, the area of snow would track a bit further south and bring an additional 2-5 cm of snow primarily to the northern half of the Red River Valley. At this point though, we’re expecting accumulating snowfall this afternoon and on and off flurries until midday Tuesday.

The RDPS has 2-5 mm of precipitation over the Red River Valley today; at a SLR of 16:1, that makes 3-8cm of snow.
The RDPS has 2-5 mm of precipitation over the Red River Valley today; at a SLR of 16:1, that makes 3-8cm of snow.

Temperatures will stay the course through the snow with highs near -16°C and steady temperatures tonight near -17°C. Tomorrow night will be much cooler as skies clear and temperature drop back towards -25°C.

Winds won’t be too much of an issue save for a brief period of gusty winds on Tuesday morning that may result in some brief blowing snow out in the open of the Red River Valley.

Wednesday will bring fairly sunny skies and cold temperatures with a high of just -21°C.

Long Range

Temperatures will once again plummet in the second half of the week with Thursday night seeing temperatures bottom out in the -30s. Things look up from there (not that there’s much worse it can get), and it appears we may see a shift back towards seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures on the weekend. Perfect for the newly opened skating trail on the Red River down at The Forks!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.