Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

The Heat Ramps Up

Brad 1 Comment

Temperatures are set to soar way above seasonal values in Southern Manitoba over the next couple days as a dry & unseasonably warm air mass over Alberta pushes into the province. Temperatures will soar on Thursday above 30°C, likely breaking several record high temperatures for that day across the province.

The heat is on as warmer weather begins pushing eastwards out of the western Prairies and spreading into Manitoba. Temperatures in Winnipeg today will climb to a mild 21°C with relatively light winds out of the south and a few clouds through the afternoon hours. Through the remainder of the Red River Valley, temperatures will be in the 18-22°C range with light winds as well. It will be milder over southwestern Manitoba with a slight southwesterly breeze and highs in the 23-26°C range.

Winds will begin picking up out of the southwest to 20-30km/h tonight as even warmer air begins moving into the region. This will keep overnight lows quite mild at just 13-14°C over the central & eastern Red River Valley. Over the western Red River Valley, overnight lows will be even milder at 15-16°C, bolstered by the down-sloping winds off the western escarpment.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature – Valid 21Z May 5, 2016
The RDPS is forecasting temperatures near or above 30°C over a wide swath of the Prairies on Thursday

Thursday will be a scorcher as the core of the warm air moves over the region. Temperatures will soar into the low 30’s with winds out of the west at 20-30km/h. The breezy winds, hot temperatures and low humidity will present an elevated fire risk, so it will be important to follow the latest fire guidelines issued by the province. Skies will be mainly sunny. Temperatures will remain mild on Thursday night with overnight lows dipping to just the mid-teens. With a high near 32°C, Winnipeg will challenge its record high temperature for May 5, which currently is 31.7°C set in 1926.

A cold front will sweep through the province on Friday, ushering in strong northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures. A few showers are possible, but with such limited moisture available and the poor timing of the frontal passage, I don’t expect Winnipeg to see any precipitation. Temperatures will reach a daytime high near 19-21°C before the cooler air begins moving in. Winds will strengthen to 40 gusting 60 km/h out of the northwest by midday. Winds will taper off on Friday night as temperatures head to a low near 8°C.

Long Range

Warm weather will return for the weekend with temperatures climbing back into the low- to mid-twenties under mostly sunny skies. A more southerly feed will mean that it won’t be quite as dry as this week’s warm weather, but the lack of rain continues.

Temperatures will continue mild into the beginning of next week. Some cooler weather is possible into mid-week as alongside the potential for some precipitation across the region, but at this point, it’s far to early to address that potential.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 17°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

Dull, Dry Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

The weather will be nothing if not reliable over the coming days as the uneventful weather continues bringing seasonal temperatures to Southern Manitoba.

The coming 3 days will bring sunny skies to Southern Manitoba with seasonal temperatures and relatively light winds. Today and Saturday will both see high temperatures near 15°C with overnight lows in the 1-2°C range. Slightly warmer weather will move in on Sunday with temperatures climbing into the upper teens with daytime highs near 18°C. Winds will be out of the north to north-east today and Saturday, at 20-30km/h. With the warmer weather on Sunday, winds should be calm out of the northwest-to-west.

Staying Dry

While the mild, dry weather is pleasant for many people, with spring moving into full swing, the desire for a little rain will be increasing, especially from the agricultural community. Unfortunately for us, the odds of any significant precipitation over the coming week is slim.

NAEFS Probability of > 5mm of Accumulated Rainfall between April 29 and May 6, 2016
NAEFS Probability of > 5mm of Accumulated Rainfall between April 29 and May 6, 2016

Looking ahead over the next week, the NAEFS is painting a dry picture. Above shows a probability of locations seeing a total of 5mm of rain or more through April 29 to May 5th. While it’s a foregone conclusion over the western and eastern Coasts, here in the middle it’s showing essentially a 0% chance of it. 2mm is also similarly bleak, with only a 30-50% chance.

This means that the odds of anything that might actually soak the ground at all is nil. Moving past next week into the 2-4 week period, it looks like we’ll head back towards a "seasonal" chance for precipitation, but no major soakers are on the horizon. Alongside the dry weather, however, will likely be some warmer weather as upper-level ridging gradually builds in over the region.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 2°C.

Quiet Weather with Near-Seasonal Temperatures Will Continue

Brad Leave a comment

The quiet weather Winnipeg has seen over the past several days will continue with dry conditions and near-seasonal temperatures continuing to the end of April.

The forecast for the remainder of the work week is brief! "More of the same" will be the mantra for Winnipeg over the coming days with daytime highs in the low teens and variable cloudiness. Today will bring just a few clouds to the Winnipeg region with breezy winds out of the northeast that strengthen to around 30km/h midday and persist into the evening. Tomorrow will bring more of a mixed sky with lighter winds, and Friday is looking like it will be a mainly cloudy day with light winds.

All three days will bring daytime highs in the 12-15°C range and overnight lows from 1-4°C.

Jet stream positions at 02:15Z April 27, 2016
This satellite image from last night shows the two jet streams impacting Manitoba.

This stagnant weather pattern over the region has been due to a stationary trough over the central United States coupled with a cut-off low over eastern Canada. As we head through the coming days, the trough over the US is will amplify and cut-off, becoming stagnant over the Northern Plains while the ridge builds in response, to the the point where it pushes all the way northwest into Manitoba.

This all means the overall pattern can’t change very much, and we see more of the same. The earliest indication of the potential for change is early next week when, if things turn out as forecast, an upper-level ridge may begin building in over North America, spreading above-normal temperatures through the Prairies.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 2°C.

Seasonal Temperatures Return For The Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see another cool day before seasonal temperatures return on Saturday and stick around through the weekend and beyond. Overall the upcoming weather forecast could be described as "fairly boring" with no significant weather events expected in the next 5-7 days.

Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today as a weak upper-level disturbance moves across the province. With all the cloud and a weak northerly wind, below-normal temperatures will persist with a high temperature of just 7°C. The afternoon will bring a slight chance of some shower activity, but it is overall expected to be quite light and may remain north of the Winnipeg. Temperatures will be chilly tonight as temperatures dip to +2°C under cloudy skies.

Saturday will be another cloudy day in Winnipeg and mark the start of the next weather system that, while not directly impacting us, will set the stage for the weather over the region for the next few days. A fairly potent low pressure system will begin building out of Montana into South Dakota, spreading cloud and rain through North Dakota towards the Canadian border. A strong deformation zone should set up just south of the border, keeping the precipitation States-side. In Manitoba, this system will produce primarily cloud and wind. As mentioned, we expect mainly cloudy skies for Winnipeg, and much of the remainder of Southern Manitoba, on Saturday. The wind will pick up out of the northeast, strengthening to about 30km/h here in Winnipeg, with values closer to 40 gusting 60 km/h over southwestern Manitoba.

Some of the cloud will begin to slump to the south on Saturday night as temperatures drop to the -1°C mark.

GDPS Surface Wind Forecast valid 18Z Sunday April 24, 2016
A strong low pressure system (L) in South Dakota will bring windy conditions to the Red River Valley on Sunday.

Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies for Winnipeg as the main cloud shield slumps to the international border.[1] Temperatures will continue near seasonal values with a high of 10°C. Unfortunately, it will feel quite chilly as a brisk northeasterly wind approaching 40km/h develops over the Red River Valley. Temperatures will dip down to the freezing mark on Sunday night once again with winds tapering off.

A quick glance ahead into next week shows pretty much more of the same; some sun, some cloud, and temperatures at or just below seasonal. Not much is expected precipitation wise until a system comes through in the second half of the week and brings the potential for some rain to the region.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 13°C while the seasonal overnight low is 0°C.

  1. This means that for areas in the southern Red River Valley, skies will likely be more mixed-to-cloudy.  ↩