Unsettled and Cool Weather Ahead

Several disturbances moving through Manitoba will bring chances of rain and cool weather through the rest of the week.

RDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 06Z Thursday, May 2, 2024
Showers will lift through southern Manitoba on Thursday, but may break apart over the Red River Valley.

A large upper-level vortex situated over southern British Columbia and Alberta will gradually shift east this week. As it trundles across the Prairies, it will bring seasonably cool conditions as a series of disturbances track across southern Manitoba.

Before any more inclement weather, Winnipeg will see a comparatively pleasant day today. A ridge of high pressure over the region will bring sunny skies and light easterly winds as temperatures climb into the low teens.

The first disturbance will begin to impact the region tonight; a low pressure system crossing the Dakotas will support an area of thunderstorms south of the border, with moisture streaming northwest along a trough of low pressure hanging back into central Saskatchewan. Cloud will spread into southern Manitoba tonight, followed by a broken band of showers pushing north on Wednesday morning. Temperatures will drop into the mid-single digits.

On Wednesday, showers will weaken as they push north into Manitoba. As the thunderstorms in the United States pull off to the east, they will take the moisture supply with them. This will leave the showers back in the Prairies with less support and they will continue northwards as a weakening band.If a small shortwave manages to eke its way northwards, it could support a more organized, sustained area of showers. Not much rain is likely with these showers, though, with most areas seeing less than 2 mm of precipitation.

On Wednesday afternoon, a few thunderstorms are possible over southeast Saskatchewan and western Manitoba; no severe weather is expected with these storms and they should taper off before they reach the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to a high in the mid-teens on Wednesday afternoon. Skies will clear for Wednesday night with a low temperature dipping down into the 0 to 5 °C range.

On Thursday, skies will cloud back over as another disturbance ejects northwards out of the Dakotas into Manitoba. Showers will push over the border early in the day, spreading north-northeast through the day. Most areas will see rain on Thursday as a low pressure centre gradually forms over North Dakota and Minnesota. Showers will continue through Thursday night, bringing wet weather all the way into Friday morning. This system could bring anywhere from 5 to 30 mm of rain across southern Manitoba; in Winnipeg there’s uncertainty as it will depend on where the showers enter the region early Thursday. If they arrive further east into the Red River Valley, the city could see as much as 15 to 25 mm of rain; if it’s further west and moves into the province over southwest Manitoba, then amounts will likely end in the 10 to 20 mm range.

Temperatures will climb into the low teens on Thursday, then drop into the mid-single digits on Thursday night.

Long Range Outlook

The rain will taper off across the region on Friday, but scattered showers may linger into the evening. Temperatures will climb back into the low teens with breezy westerly winds, then drop close to the freezing mark on Friday night.

Heading into the weekend, skies will begin to clear on Saturday, then sunnier conditions will return for Sunday as the upper vortex finally moves off and a ridge of high pressure moves back into the region. Temperatures on Saturday will be seasonably cool, but Sunday should bring milder temperatures back to the region.

Unsettled weather returns Sunday night into Monday as another low moves into the Prairies. This system will support a large area of elevated convection that will develop on Sunday night then lift northeast into Manitoba on Monday.

The region will likely see more rain through the day on Monday as this system moves through, and then it looks like things will settle down for the rest of the week with near-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +2 °C.


Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

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