Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Thunderstorms & Showers to Start The Week

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A severe thunderstorm threat returns to Southern Manitoba today as very warm and humid conditions persist in the region for one final day before a cold front pushes cooler and drier air into the region. The passage of the cold front will not be an end to the unsettled weather, though, as a couple more days of showers or thunderstorms will occur with a large upper-level low passing over the region.

Today brings a notable severe weather threat to southern Manitoba with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms developing over southwestern Manitoba and a moderate risk in the Red River Valley eastwards through the SE corner of the province.1 The thunderstorms will develop mid-day and push eastwards with the cold front through the remainder of the afternoon. It is most likely that the thunderstorms develop over southwest Manitoba first, and then push towards into the Red River Valley this evening. Stay aware of any watches or warnings issued by Environment Canada.

The HRRR develops a line of thunderstorms along the cold front and pushes it into the Red River Valley this evening.
The HRRR develops a line of thunderstorms along the cold front and pushes it into the Red River Valley this evening.

Otherwise, this mornings cloud cover will break up a bit to produce mixed skies and the relatively small amount of sunshine will push the daytime highs to around 26°C. With very humid air in place, it will be a fairly uncomfortable day, feeling more like the low- to mid-thirties. After the thunderstorms move through this evening, we’ll head to a low near 16°C with breezy southerly winds.

Tomorrow will likely bring some sun first thing in the morning, but more clouds will move in with a good chance of more shower or thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. At this point severe thunderstorms aren’t expected, but we’ll keep an eye on things to see if anything changes. Winds will be pick up to be gusty out of the north near 40km/h. Expect a high near 23°C and a low near 14°C with a continued chance for showers overnight.

Wednesday will be a cool and cloudy day with a good chance of more rain. The daytime high will only be around 20°C and winds will continue gusty out of the northwest, although not quite as strong as Tuesday. The shower activity will taper off in the evening as temperatures head to a low near 14°C.

The latter half of the week is looking like a return to seasonal temperatures and a chance of actually drying out a little bit.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

  1. Apologies for the lack of an outlook image; time constraints have prevented me from making one. ↩

Increasingly Muggy Weather on the Way for the Winnipeg Folk Festival

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Unsettled weather is on its way back to the province as a trough of low pressure develops over the western Prairies and draws humid air northwards out of the United States. For people heading out to Bird's Hill for the Folk Fest, this means increasingly muggy weather through the weekend with the potential for thunderstorms both Saturday & Sunday.

Today will be a fairly pleasant day. The system that brought up to 20 mm of rain to the Red River Valley yesterday1 will be moving off the east and any remaining cloud from it should clear out through the morning leaving just a few clouds around for the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near 25°C. Expect just a few clouds overnight and a low near 14°C.

Saturday

Saturday will see more humid air beginning to work into the region. Morning sun will be replaced by clouds as the day goes on while the temperature climbs to a high near 26°C. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, but the main threat will occur through the overnight period. There will be a very small chance of severe thunderstorms.

Update: Severe Thunderstorms Hit SW Manitoba on Saturday July 9, 2016

Severe thunderstorms developed over SW Manitoba on Saturday and focused into one primary strong supercell thunderstorm that organized near Virden, MB and then moved southeastwards through Minto & Ninette before continuing on across the US border. It produced a variety of severe weather, with numerous reports of heavy rain, large hail and severe winds:

A summary of the severe weather over southwestern Saskatchewan on July 9, 2016
A summary of the severe weather over southwestern Saskatchewan on July 9, 2016

Sunday

Sunday will see the humidity move into the region full force with dewpoint values climbing up into the low 20's. This will make the high near 27°C feel very warm, however conditions will be a bit more bearable due to the fair amount of cloud cover expected through the day. Any times the sun does poke out, though, will likely see things begin feeling very warm very quickly.

A organized line of thunderstorms sweeping across Southern Manitoba is possible Sunday night.
A organized line of thunderstorms sweeping across Southern Manitoba is possible Sunday night.

Rain-wise, we may see some remnant showers or thunderstorms in the morning from any activity on Saturday night, and then things should diminish for much of the day. By Sunday evening & overnight, the thunderstorm threat once again returns. Sunday night will see a slight to moderate threat of severe thunderstorms across the Red River Valley. Large MUCAPE values overnight coupled with 30-50 kt of bulk shear ahead of an incoming shortwave will support the development of organized thunderstorm activity across a wide area of Southern Manitoba. The primary threats will be large hail and strong winds, with rapid rainfall accumulations also a concern.2

It will be a very mild night with a low near 21°C.

Long Range

The start of next week continues warm and humid with a thunderstorm threat late in the day into the overnight period. Heading through Tuesday into mid-week, the main upper low associated with the weekend's weather pattern moves into the region, bringing relief from the humidity and cooler temperatures alongside more cloud and chances for showers.

  1. While Winnipeg saw nothing but a few light showers late in the evening, the rain managed to push as far north as St. Adolphe, which saw 2mm. ↩
  2. Although the thunderstorms will likely have very intense rainfall, they will be moving relatively quickly, making accumulations not as prominent a threat as the hail or wind potential. ↩

Missing: Dog Days of Summer

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Anyone looking for a good long stretch of hot, dry weather really should consider broadening their horizons because generally unsettled weather continues throughout Southern Manitoba right through the coming weekend.

Today will be the most pleasant and "summer-like" day of the coming few as the sun makes a prominent showing with temperatures climbing into the mid-20's for a daytime high. While some showers or thunderstorms are possible over southwestern Manitoba today, Winnipeg & the Red River Valley should see just a few clouds with no precipitation expected.

Tonight will continue to be fairly pleasant with a low near 13°C.

Thursday will bring unsettled weather back to Winnipeg as an upper low moves into southern Manitoba. Increasing cloudiness and showers will spread from the southwestern Red River Valley to the northeast through the morning, and then the unsettled conditions will persist through the afternoon. At this point no thunderstorm activity is expected. Temperatures will reach a high near 23°C and then head to a low near 14°C on Thursday night with a continuing chance of showers.

Several models are showing an area of rain or showers moving through the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon.
Several models are showing an area of rain or showers moving through the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon.

Friday will continue with fairly cloudy skies and a slight chance of more light shower activity. Some sunny breaks are possible in the afternoon as the temperature climbs to a high near 23 or 24°C. Temperatures will drop to around 14°C with clearing skies.

Hot, Unsettled & Increasingly Humid This Weekend

The weekend weather will be dominated by a developing trough of low pressure through the western and central Prairies that will draw humid air northwards from the Central Plains of the United States and bring with it the potential for multiple days of thunderstorm potential. Early indications are that severe thunderstorms will certainly be possible on both Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the upper 20's with Sunday in particular beginning to feel very muggy.

The GFS is forecsting potent SBCAPE values in excess of 4,000 J/kg by Sunday evening.
The GFS is forecsting potent SBCAPE values in excess of 4,000 J/kg by Sunday evening.

With the Winnipeg Folk Festival starting off this weekend, we'll be sure to keep a close eye on this system as it develops. Early indications are that the days will be fairly pleasant with more of a chance for thunderstorms through the overnight periods both Saturday night and Sunday night. By Sunday, there may be a significant severe threat with any thunderstorms due to the sheer amount of instability that is forecast to be in place over the region. We'll have a closer look at the weekend forecast on Friday morning.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Beautiful Canada Day Gives Way to Warmer & Unsettled Weekend

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A pleasant and dry Canada Day is on tap for Southern Manitoba thanks to a ridge of high pressure over the region that will bring sunshine to most regions. Heading into the weekend, slightly warmer weather will bring with it more unsettled weather.

Southern Manitoba is set for a beautiful Canada Day as temperatures climb into the low 20's with mainly sunny skies and light winds. Some cloud cover will begin pushing into the region late this afternoon, likely bringing partly cloudy to mixed skies by midnight. The overnight low will dip down to near 12°C.

Saturday will bring mainly cloudy skies–although a sunny break here or there is possible—and just a very slight chance for some showers here in Winnipeg. A disturbance moving through the southwestern portion of the province will spread more organized shower activity that will pass through the southwestern Red River Valley, but likely remain south of Winnipeg. Temperatures will once again climb to around 23°C, but the wind will be a bit breezier at 20-30 km/h out of the southeast.

Cloudy skies will continue on Saturday night with a chance of showers in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley. Temperatures will drop to around 15°C for the overnight low with a continued chance of showers through the region.

The NAM simulated RADAR imagery shows a band of showers or thunderstorms moving through Winnipeg on Sunday evening.
The NAM simulated RADAR imagery shows a band of showers or thunderstorms moving through Winnipeg on Sunday evening.

Sunday will be the warmest and most unsettled day of the weekend. Temperatures will climb to a high near 25°C under mostly cloudy skies. There will be a chance of showers for much of the day, but as a trough passes through in the afternoon the risk for thunderstorms will be added into the mix. At this point, there doesn't appear to be a severe threat with the storms, but we'll keep an eye on the situation through the weekend. Winds will once again be southeasterly at 20-30 km/h. Expect a mild low on Sunday night near 17°C.

Long Range

Looking into next week, conditions look fairly warm with daytime highs in the upper 20's and increasing humidity as dew points climb into the upper teens. Early indications are that there will be chances for rain or thunderstorms every day through the first half of the week, with a slightly drier and cooler pattern returning for the second half of the week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.