Category: Forecasts

Cloudy, But Mild

Scott Leave a comment

This week will start out on the grey side, with more clouds than sun on most days. However, temperatures will remain mild with values at or above seasonal norms.

Mild but cloudy conditions are expected in southern Manitoba today.
Mild but cloudy conditions are expected in southern Manitoba today.

This Week

Today will be a fairly typical late October day in southern Manitoba. Skies will remain mainly cloudy in most areas as a low cloud deck remains suck along the eastern edge of a surface ridge. Temperatures will be near seasonal values, with highs in the mid to upper single digits. Winds will be light from the east. There is a slight chance of a shower or flurry, but not significant accumulations are expected.

Tuesday will see temperatures warm slightly over today, but skies will remain grey. An approaching system will ensure continued cloudiness over southern Manitoba, but a stiff southeasterly flow will allow temperatures to climb up near 10C in most areas. That southeasterly flow will be gusting up to 50 km/h by the afternoon, making these slightly-above seasonal temperatures seem a bit chilly. Shower activity is possible during the day, with a better chance of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday as that system moves closer.

Wednesday will remain mainly cloudy with a continued chance of showers as a weak low pressure system slowly passes by. Temperatures will remain mild, near 10C, with gusty south winds of 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

Long range models show generally seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures as we move through the end of October. Our normal high for this time of year is 7C, suggesting that temperatures in the upper single digits or low double digits will be most common through month’s end. These warm conditions will likely spill into early November, but it remains to be seen whether or not November will see an early start to winter, or if we’ll have to wait a bit longer for the white stuff to come for good.

Warmer & Unsettled Conditions Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will finally break out of the 6°C lock that we’ve had on daytime highs for the past few days and see daytime highs return closer to seasonal values of 9°C. That warmer weather will, unfortunately, also come with increasingly unsettled conditions, with multiple chances for rain in the coming days. This weekend has Winnipeg host to the 2016 Tim Horton’s Heritage Classic; will the games thread the rain needle or will attendees need to bring an umbrella? Read on to find out!

Warmer temperatures will finally make an appearance in Winnipeg today as milder air is carried eastwards by a trough of low pressure pushing eastwards across the Prairies. Before we get to them, however, windy and wet conditions will move through first.

Winds will pick up out of the south to 30-40 km/h this morning, with showers developing over Western Manitoba and pushing into the Red River Valley late this morning. The showers will taper off early- to mid-afternoon with winds tapering off. Temperatures will climb up to around 10°C by late this afternoon.

Expect mainly clear skies overnight as temperatures drop down to a low near 2°C. Its possible that some fog patches or stratus cloud forms early Saturday morning.

Saturday brings the first game of the Heritage Classic, set to start at 3:00PM. Assuming skies stay clear tonight, then Saturday should bring increasing cloud through the late morning into the early afternoon. By game start, skies will be mostly cloudy with a temperature near 10°C. Rain will start pushing into the province through the afternoon, but it should remain west of the Red River Valley until around 6-7PM.

Forecast rainfall amounts from the GDPS have about 5-15mm total rainfall across Southern Manitoba shared between the Friday & Saturday night events.
Forecast rainfall amounts from the GDPS have about 5-15mm total rainfall across Southern Manitoba shared between the Friday & Saturday night events.

Saturday night will bring periods of rain and a low near 4°C. Rainfall totals of 2-5mm seem likely by Sunday morning.

Sunday will continue with seasonal highs and clearing skies. There may be a few lingering showers early in the morning, but they should taper off quickly, leaving a fairly pleasant day with the sun breaking through in the afternoon and a high near 8 or 9°C. Winds will pick up out of the northwest to 20-30 km/h for the afternoon. While it will be a bit cooler than Saturday, overall it will be relatively pleasant conditions for the second Heritage Classic game, which starts at 2:00PM.

Sunday night should bring mainly clear skies, light winds, and a low near 0°C.

Long Range

The start of next week currently looks like it will bring seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness. Conditions may become a little more unsettled through the latter half of the week, but at least it appears that any precipitation we may see will be rain instead of the alternative!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -2°C.

Cloudy & Cool Days Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will be stuck in a fairly cloudy and cool second half to the work week as a broad upper-level trough remains entrenched over the region.

Cool & Relatively Dreary

While this morning may bring a few smiles with some sunshine, more cloud will quickly be moving back into Winnipeg, turning skies grey and leaving cool, fall-like weather in the wake. By early this afternoon, skies should be completely clouded up once again with temperatures topping out near 6°C. Winds will be out of the west-northwest at around 20-25 km/h with some gusts in the 30-40 km/h range.

Skies will remain fairly cloudy overnight with northwesterly winds continuing and temperatures dipping down to around 1°C.

Thursday morning will bring more cloudy skies with a slight chance of some shower or flurry activity as a weak band of lake-effect precipitation moves off of Lake Manitoba. It should dissipate by midday, and we’ll be left with cloudy skies that gradually begin to break up late in the afternoon, calm winds, and a high near 7°C.

Thursday night will bring a low once again near 1°C under partly cloudy skies.

Showers Possible Friday

A warm front moving across the Prairies on Friday will bring the chance of showers to the region alongside a shift to a warmer weather pattern.

A warm front will push eastwards across the Red River Valley on Friday.
A warm front will push eastwards across the Red River Valley on Friday.

By midday the chance for showers move into Winnipeg with winds picking up out of the south to 30-40 km/h. It doesn’t look like rainfall totals will be much to speak of (less than 2mm), but there may be just enough to make the ground wet.

The warmest air will remain to our south, however, so daytime highs will sit near 9°C. Friday night will bring a low near 2°C under partly cloudy skies.

Long Range

The weekend is looking slightly warmer with highs near 10°C and overnight lows continuing in the 1-2°C range. Skies will likely be mixed through the weekend and there may be another chance for some light shower activity on Saturday afternoon.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 9°C while the seasonal overnight low is -2°C.

Warm Monday, But Cold Front Looms

Scott Leave a comment

Today will be seasonably warm across southern Manitoba, but that is about to change. A looming cold front will bring cooler conditions by Tuesday.

Warm weather is expected today across southern Manitoba
Warm weather is expected today across southern Manitoba

This Week

Today will be the warmest day of the week in southern Manitoba. Mainly sunny skies and light westerly winds will allow temperatures to climb into the mid teens. Given that the normal high is only about 10C this time of year, today is well-above seasonal values. Unfortunately, that is about to change as a strong cold front pushes through southern Manitoba by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday will be significantly cooler than Monday as a rush of chilly arctic air descends from the north behind a cold front. High temperatures will only reach the mid to upper single digits. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud with breezy west winds of 20-30 km/h.

Wednesday will remain cool, as temperatures remain stuck in the mid single digits. Skies will be mainly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or flurry. Winds will be breezy from the northwest at 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

The signal for the rest of the week’s weather is not particularly strong. Model guidance does hint at the potential for slight warm-up as we move into the weekend, but this is not completely certain. In general, high temperatures are expected to hover near the normal high for this time of year of 9-10°C. Longer range guidance shows higher probabilities of warmer than normal conditions are we move toward month’s end.