One Last Day of Warm Weather

One more day of seasonably warm weather is on the way before conditions cool down. A strong low pressure system will usher in a much cooler air mass by midweek.

A strong southerly flow will be in place over southern Manitoba today
A strong southerly flow will be in place over southern Manitoba today

This Week

Today will be another warm, but breezy day in southern Manitoba. A strong low pressure system to the west will develop a stiff southerly flow, allowing for these warm temperatures. Rain is expected to develop over western Manitoba by this evening, but only a chance of showers is expected over the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. Skies will generally be a mix of sun and cloud with temperatures in the low to mid twenties.

Gusty southeast winds will remain over southern Manitoba on Tuesday, but temperatures will cool somewhat. Highs are only expected to reach the upper teens, with mainly cloudy skies. Showers will be likely throughout the day, although large accumulations are not expected.

Significantly cooler weather is on tap for Wednesday as a strong cold front swings through the region. High temperatures are only expected to be in the low teens with gusty southwest winds. Skies will be a mix of sun and cloud with a slight chance of a shower.

Long Range

Cooler weather will stick around for the rest of the week behind the departing low pressure system. As shown above, our warmer-than-normal temperatures that were in place through the weekend and early this week will be replaced by below-normal temperatures behind this low pressure system.

High temperatures will likely be near 10C most days, plus or minus a few degrees. While that seems cool, it is only a few degrees below normal for this time of year.

Above-Normal Warmth Ahead This Weekend

I apologize for the brevity of this post, but with an illness sweeping through the house, I haven’t had too much time to elaborate on the coming days. That said, we have a nice weekend ahead with mild temperatures and plenty of sunshine!

Today will be a pretty nice day with mixed skies and a high near 19°C. Winds will be a bit more prominent out of the south at around 20 km/h with some gusts on top of that this afternoon. Winnipeg will see a thicker band of cloud move through overnight and with it will come a slight chance of some light showers. Temperatures will dip down to about 12°C tonight.

Tomorrow will see morning cloud clearing out as temperatures climb to a high near 21°C. Winds will once again be out of the south at around 15-20 km/h. Expect a low near 13°C.

Sunday will be another nice day with partly cloudy skies and a high near 22°C. Winnipeg will see more cloud move in on Sunday night as a series of disturbances begin moving into the region, bringing several days of unsettled weather to the region to start next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

Sunshine Reappears With Pleasant Fall Weather

Those tired of the left-over gloom from the weekend’s weather will be happy to know plenty of sunshine is on the way as a building upper-level ridge brings seasonal temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

The weather for much of this week will be dominated by an upper ridge building across the southern Prairies, bringing pleasant conditions for the end of September with slightly above normal daytime highs. The next few days will bring plenty of sunshine with just a few clouds to partly cloudy skies expected.

Temperatures will gradually climb to around 5-6°C above seasonal by the end of the week; daytime highs near 17°C today in Winnipeg will increase to near 20°C for Thursday and Friday.

The red colours on this map of 850mb temperature anomalies shows the warmer than normal weather expected over Southern Manitoba this week.
The red colours on this map of 850mb temperature anomalies shows the warmer than normal weather expected over Southern Manitoba this week.

Fortunately, it doesn’t appear the wind will pose too much of an issue either. Winds will be calm today, and then increase to around 10-20 km/h out of the south for Thursday and 15-25 km/h out of the south on Friday.

Long Range

The weekend forecast gets a little more complicated, but overall it’s looking like the weather should stay dry until the start of next week.

As the weekend progresses, a long-wave upper trough will dig over the western half of the continent. We should remain relatively unaffected by this with mild weather continuing through the weekend. Late Sunday into Monday, a shortwave will eject northeastwards out of the trough, moving into Southern Manitoba, and will bring some rain to the region. The timing of this is uncertain at the moment, but it looks likely that it won’t move into the province until late Sunday at the earliest.

So until that moves in, the weather should remain quite nice with mild temperatures and relatively light winds.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.

Drying Out with Seasonal Temperatures

After a rainy weekend we’ll have a chance to dry out this week as skies clear. Temperatures will be cool, but generally near seasonal values.

Cool and windy conditions are expected on Monday in southern Manitoba
Cool and windy conditions are expected on Monday in southern Manitoba

This Week

Today will see mainly sunny skies as the low pressure system from the weekend moves off to the east. However, it will remain quite windy behind the system with northwesterly winds of 40 km/h gusting to 60 km/h. Temperatures will sit in the mid teens over most of southern Manitoba. There will be a slight risk of frost in low-lying areas tonight as temperatures drop rapidly with the light northwesterly flow.

Tuesday will see slightly improved weather over today as winds calm down and temperatures climb up into the mid teens. Skies will also remain mainly sunny, making for a generally pleasant day.

Wednesday should be one of the warmest days this week. Temperatures are expected to climb up near the 20C mark under light southerly winds and mainly sunny skies.

Long Range

Long range models hint at another strong low pressure system developing to our west later this week. It remains unclear if and when this system may affect us, but it likely won’t be until the weekend at the earliest. The good news is that this system will draw up a warm, southerly flow, perhaps giving us a brief stretch of warm weather before it arrives.