More Mild Weather

Another spell of above-normal temperatures are on the way to the Red River Valley this weekend with daytime highs possibly reaching above freezing by the beginning of next week. Closer to Christmas, temperatures will return to seasonal values before cooler air slumps southward for the end of December.

Friday
-6°C / -9°C
Cloudy with periods of light snow
Saturday
-4°C / -7°C
Cloudy
Sunday
-2°C / -4°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries

Today marks the beginning of the warmup as cloud ahead of an approaching warm front blankets the province almost entirely. Here in the Red River Valley, light snow will likely be fairly widespread thanks to favourable temperature profiles throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere. As is typical in these situations, don’t expect any real accumulation. Temperatures will climb to an above-seasonal –6°C or so with light winds. Temperatures dip down to around –9°C tonight with mainly cloudy skies.

Saturday will be another cloudy day with temperatures climbing to around –4°C under mainly cloudy skies. The main difference will be that light snow won’t be nearly as likely, although a few isolated flurries are possible. Winds remain light and temperatures dip to around –7°C on Saturday night under cloudy skies.

Sunday will start…you guessed it, mainly cloudy once again with temperatures beginning to edge even warmer; the daytime high on Sunday will likely be around –2°C. The cloud may begin to scatter out in the afternoon providing a brief reprieve from the cloudy skies.

Some flurries are once again possible, however any real threat for snow will hold off until the overnight hours where a low pressure system passing to our south will potentially bring a band of snow across the Red River Valley with a couple of cm accumulation.

Snowy(-ish) Return to Winter

Looking ahead to next week, the weather pattern will be dominated by a large low pressure system developing over the eastern half of the United States & Canada. The Red River Valley will be positioned on the back-side of the strengthening low, locking us into northerly winds that will begin pulling Arctic air southwards through the Prairies.

The GFS 850mb temperature forecast valid on Christmas eve shows a trough of cold air plunging southeastwards behind a strongly tilted, major storm system centered over Ontario.
The GFS 850mb temperature forecast valid on Christmas eve shows a trough of cold air plunging southeastwards behind a strongly tilted, major storm system centered over Ontario.

With the cooler air plunging southwards, daytime highs will cool off to the mid-minus teens for the second half of the week. Snowfall is a little uncertain at this point for us, but it doesn’t look like much will be seen here, making for a cool and blustery, but not particularly stormy, Christmas. It is worth noting that this storm system will have dramatic impacts on the eastern half of the country, including Toronto & Montreal, so if you have travel plans for the holidays that involve flying in that direction, be prepared for potential delays.

Seasonal Weather Continues

The weather will remain unexciting as a ridge of high pressure exiting the Prairies gives way to more cloud & flurry activity. Snowfall may become slightly more organized by the end of the week, but no significant events are in the forecast.

Wednesday
-10°C / -18°C
Mainly sunny
Thursday
-9°C / ⇒ -9°C
Increasing cloud; light snow overnight
Friday
-5°C / -9°C
Cloudy with flurries

Today will bring sunny skies and a high near -10°C. Winds will be calm.

Skies will remain clear tonight as temperatures drop to around -16°C. Winds will remain relatively light.

Thursday will start off fairly sunny and become increasingly cloudy through the day. While there’s an ever-so-slight chance of a light flurry through the daytime, the bulk of the activity should hold off until the overnight hours. Temperatures will climb to around -9°C with relatively light winds.

Temperatures will remain fairly steady near -9°C on Thursday night with some flurries looking fairly likely.

Friday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures climbing to around -5°C. It will also be cloudy with a very good chance of light snow thanks to a weak upper-level trough sliding across the province. Temperatures will dip to around -8°C on Friday night with cloudy skies and a chance of continued flurry activity.

Despite all the snow in the forecast, little of it will accumulate. Friday stands the best chance at seeing something, but even then it would only be a cm or so at most.

Not Much Between Now And Christmas

The weather, in general, is looking quite unremarkable between now and Christmas.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is calling for near-normal conditions over Southern Manitoba.
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is calling for near-normal conditions over Southern Manitoba.

The temperature outlook continues to be seasonal with no dramatic swings over the next while. Snow-wise, no significant systems look to impact southern Manitoba between here and Christmas. Through the first half of next week it looks like a weak inverted trough may bring a couple of days of light snow or flurry activity to the province, but once again it looks like it would produce little in the way of accumulations.

So in lieu of any interesting weather, get out there and enjoy what is shaping up, for December, to be an exceedingly bearable winter!

Warm Spell Comes to an End

The little warm spell we’ve been in over the past several days has come to an end. Cooler temperatures are in store for this week, but conditions will remain above-normal.

Cooler weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Cooler weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
-8°C / -13°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries

Today will see temperatures fall from the very mild conditions experienced on the week. High temperatures will be in the upper minus single digits, with a gusty north wind. There is a chance of flurries during the day, particularly in the morning. Unfortunately, even this change in the weather isn’t expected to reveal the sun, as we continue to languish under mainly cloudy skies.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-11°C / -15°C
Mainly sunny

Tuesday will be slightly colder than Monday, but not by much. High temperatures will be around the -10°C mark, with a light north-west wind. The sun should finally come out, making for a mainly sunny day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-10°C / -18°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Wednesday will see temperatures that are very similar to Tuesday. Highs will once again be near the -10°C mark. Winds will be light, making for a fairly pleasant day. Cloud cover will be variable, with generally a mix of sun and cloud through the day.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we’ll see a gradual warming trend as we move towards the weekend. Temperatures will likely move towards the mid minus single digits, which is still above-normal for this time of year. No major arctic blasts are currently in the forecast, allowing our mild December to continue!

Mild But Dreary Weather Continues

The weather pattern that has brought temperatures well above seasonal to Winnipeg[1] – despite the persistence of low cloud supplied by the outflow winds of a high pressure system to our southeast – will continue to pump warm Pacific air eastwards into the region for another couple days. By the end of the weekend, however, a cold front is set to push through bringing more seasonal temperatures back to the Prairies.

Friday
1°C / -2°C
Mainly cloudy
Saturay
3°C / -3°C
Mixed skies
Sunday
-1°C / -13°C
Mainly cloudy; slight chance of flurries

Winnipeg will see cloudy weather today as low cloud entrenched in the Red River Valley refuses to exit as southerly outflow winds continue to reinforce the low-level moisture trapped underneath the substantially warmer air just off the surface[2] that has spread over southern Manitoba.

The cloud will be accompanied by breezy southerly winds to 30-40km/h. The temperature will only climb to around 0 or +1°C today. Some clearing is possible later in the day as drier air begins pushing eastwards into the Dakotas and may work its way northwards in the flow. It’s far from certain, but we could see some breaks in the cloudy skies later today into the evening. Temperatures will drop to around -2°C tonight.

This Winnipeg forecast sounding – valid at 10AM CST Friday, December 12, 2014 – shows a thin layer of saturated air right at the surface which will continue to produce low-level cloud.
This Winnipeg forecast sounding – valid at 10AM CST Friday, December 12, 2014 – shows a thin layer of saturated air right at the surface which will continue to produce low-level cloud.

Saturday looks to bring mixed skies with a lot of uncertainty on exactly what we’ll see. Weather models want to clear things out fairly well and give us sunny skies with a high near 6°C. Unfortunately, I’m not entirely convinced that’s what will happen. The Red River Valley will sit on the cusp of where the return flow from the high pressure system meets drier air pushing in from the southwest. However, a low pressure system approaching from the west will likely back the winds slightly, tapping into the low-level moisture in the outflow winds from the high. Additionally, large-scale lift ahead of the low could also work to develop more low cloud ahead of the approaching cloud. So while the day may end up sunny, it seems a bit more likely we’ll see mixed skies or increasing cloud through the day. Due to that, I think the high will be closer to 3 or 4°C with temperatures dropping to around -3°C overnight under mainly cloudy skies.

Sunday will be a mainly cloudy day as a low pressure system passes to our south. Northwesterly winds will bring more seasonal Arctic air into the region through the day, limiting our daytime highs to -1°C with just a slight chance for some light flurries.

Through much of next week seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures are expect with no significant precipitation events in the forecast.


  1. Our daytime highs near -1°C are about 8°C above seasonal for this time of year.  ↩
  2. As shown in the figure mid-way through this post, while surface temperatures will struggle to climb just above 0°C, temperatures just 1.5km off the ground are nearly 17°C.  ↩