Winter will take a vacation this week, as temperatures soar well above seasonal values.
Cooler temperatures are expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Monday
Monday
-10°C / -20°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of flurries
Today will be our last taste of arctic air for awhile! High temperatures today will be around or just below -10C with a breezy north-west wind. There may be some light flurries during the day, particularly in the morning, but they shouldn’t amount to much, if anything.
Tuesday
Tuesday
-7°C / -8°C
Mainly Sunny
Tuesday will be a bit warmer than Monday, as a strong southerly flow brings warm air into southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be in the minus single digits, which is slightly above-normal for this time of year. The only downside is that it will be very windy, with south winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h. Temperatures will not decrease much on Tuesday night as that strong wind keeps conditions mild.
Wednesday
Wednesday
-2°C / -2°C
Mainly Sunny
High temperatures on Wednesday will approach or exceed the freezing mark in most of southern Manitoba. South-western sections of the province should reach the freezing mark, while areas in the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba remain just below freezing. Winds will remain gusty and from the south.
Long Range
The NAEFS model suggests that above-normal weather will last through mid-December
The long range forecast is looking very good. Models are in strong agreement that our weather will remain above-normal for the foreseeable future. In fact, later this week temperatures will likely be well-above normal, with multiple days potentially being above freezing. There is no sign of any major cool-downs in the forecast – enjoy it while it lasts!
Seasonal weather will be in place over the Red River Valley this weekend with dry conditions and comparatively mild temperatures.
Friday
-9°C / -14°C
Mixed skies and breezy
Saturday
-6°C / -8°C
Increasing cloud with late-day wind
Sunday
-3°C / -9°C
Cloudy and mild
Today will be the least pleasant day of the weekend with temperatures climbing to around -9°C with somewhat gusty northwesterly winds – around 30km/h with gusts closer to the 40-50km/h mark – ushering cooler air than we had yesterday. While we’ll see a fair amount of cloud today clearing out in the afternoon, no snow is expected. Temperatures will dip to the mid-minus teens tonight as winds taper off.
Saturday looks like a fairly pleasant day. A ridge of high pressure over the region will bring mainly sunny skies and a high near -6°C. Winds will begin picking up out of the south a little later in the day, making it feel a bit colder but limiting our overnight low to just around -8°C or so. Some light snow is possible late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours ahead of a warm front gradually lifting northwards through the night.
Sunday will be a very mild day that starts off with somewhat unpleasant southeasterly winds. By late morning or early afternoon it looks like the winds will die off and the temperature will climb to a very balmy high of around -2 or -3°C. Some snow is possible in the afternoon, but it looks like the bulk of the precipitation will remain to the north and east of the Red River Valley, with just a light dusting of snow possible. Temperatures on Sunday night continue mild with lows near -9°C.
Pattern Change Next Week Brings More Mild Weather
As we mentioned earlier this week, a major pattern shift covering much of North America will occur through the early half of next week that will move most of the continent into an above-average temperature regime for an extended duration.
The general gist of the pattern evolution is this: over the next few days, a very strong frontal zone over the northern Pacific will shift eastwards alongside a train of upper-level disturbances reflected at the surface by a very intense low pressure system – bottoming out today at 950mb or so. This intense low will become stacked east of the Aleutians and absorb several weaker, more disorganized disturbances, becoming a very impressive, large storm over the northeastern Pacific. This intense system will build an upper-level ridge over western North America, beginning the push of warm air. The second key ingredient is the evolution of the polar vortex that has been anchored over Hudson Bay for the last few weeks.
By this weekend, shown here in the GDPS 500mb height & vorticty forecast, several very potent low pressure systems – marked by the letter L – will begin building a ridge over western North America while the polar vortex – shown by “PV” – begins a slow trek eastwards.
Fortunately, a powerful low pressure system heading up the east coast with teleconnections to the polar vortex will help “push” the vortex from its resting place and rapidly shunt it eastwards over Greenland. This is the second key ingredient because the polar vortex over Hudson Bay[1] is what anchors the eastern Prairies into a northwesterly to northerly flow for such long periods of time, reinforcing colder air and shunting warmer air to our south. With the vortex skipping town, the arctic jet stream will retreat northwards and the warm air spreading northeastwards with the upper ridge will be able to spread eastwards across the Prairies unhindered.
It’s a very interesting situation that highlights how stable the ridge-trough pattern that is so common is; in order for us to be kicked out of this pattern that has brought us a very cold November, we need very potent, significant storms on both coasts at the same time disrupting the upper-level pattern enough to get things moving again.
Within the warming pattern, we’ll see relatively warm and cool spells as disturbances ripple across the Prairies , but overall it looks quite dry in the Red River Valley as daytime highs climb into the -5 to 0°C through the second half of next week with the possibility of above-zero temperatures late into the week through the weekend. different from
Its worth noting given how much press the term “polar vortex” gets lately that this is a completely normal feature that is dominant over Hudson Bay for huge swaths of winter every single year. ↩
There’s no question about it: the biggest upcoming weather story is the big warm-up that’s in store not just for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, but much of North America. After one more cold night tonight, temperatures will move towards seasonal values by the end of the week and then push towards above-normal by the end of the weekend. Given that November just finished up as the 22nd coldest on record that was some 4°C below normal[1], news of a prolonged warmer trend is likely very welcome news for many.
Wednesday
-15°C / -20°C
Mainly sunny; becoming partly cloudy in the evening
Thursday
-8°C / -15°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Friday
-9°C / -15°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Medium-range model consensus is showing high agreement in an above-normal temperature trend through the first half of December.
Today will be a relatively cool day courtesy a cold front that passed through Southern Manitoba overnight. Daytime highs will sit near -15°C through the Red River Valley today under mainly sunny skies and relatively light west to northwesterly winds. A ridge of high pressure moving through the region tonight will help temperatures dip to a chilly -20°C overnight.
Southerly winds will develop through the Red River Valley in advance of an approaching warm front quickly advancing across the Prairies. The winds – climbing to only around 20-30km/h – will help our overnight low as relatively “mild” as it is as well as begin ushering in warmer air. Temperatures will climb to around -8°C by Thursday afternoon as the winds gradually diminish under mixed skies. Temperatures will dip to the -15°C on Thursday night.
Looking to the end of the week, Friday appears to be a near-copy of Thursday with light winds, mixed skies and a high of -9 or -8°C and a low once again near -15°C.
Seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures will continue through the weekend alongside a slight chance for some light snow.
We’ll have our own climate summary on the fall of 2014 up later this month. ↩
This week will start out scary cold, as it continues to feel more like January than early December.
Monday morning will be extremely cold in southern Manitoba
Monday
Monday
-20°C / → -20°C
Mainly Sunny
This morning will likely feature the coldest temperatures we’ve seen so far this winter. Temperatures will slowly climb toward minus twenty the day, but a gusty south wind will begin to develop as well. By the afternoon the wind will be 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, putting wind chill values in the mid to upper minus thirties. That gusty south wind will also generate patches of heavy blowing and drifting snow in open areas.
Tuesday
Tuesday
-12°C / -20°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Tuesday will be significantly nicer than Monday. Temperatures will be in the minus teens, but the wind will be light and from the west…just that fact alone will make it feel a lot warmer!
Wednesday
Wednesday
-12°C / -25°C
Mainly Sunny
Wednesday will feature much the same weather as Tuesday. Temperatures will once again be in the minus teens, but with a slightly stronger west wind. There may be a few flurries early on Wednesday morning, but nothing of great significance.
Long Range
Long range guidance suggests we’ll see less extreme conditions develop as we move into December. Models are hinting at an upper ridge building over the Prairies about a week or so into December. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will be warm, but conditions that are closer to normal, or perhaps even above-normal should become more prevalent.
